Should the Nationals Bench Stephen Strasburg?

There’s a new feeling coming from DC and Nationals’ Park this spring, something we haven’t felt since the team first arrived from Montreal: optimism.  The Nationals are off to their best start since coming to DC with a 12-4 record.  They currently sit atop the NL East and the whole baseball world is starting to take notice.  This team is not a joke anymore and the major reason is their pitching.

The Nationals currently lead the league in ERA with 2.34, BAA with .202, and are tied for first in strikeouts with 144.  The pitching has had to carry the team somewhat as they rank only 21^st in runs scored with 58, but so far they have been up to the task.

The Nationals’ rotation is led by young ace Stephen Strasburg, who at 23 years old can already be considered one of the best pitchers in baseball.  Through four games he has a 1.08 ERA with 25 strikeouts.  A lot of fans are beginning to breathe a little easier believing that his Tommy John surgery from September 2010 is now fully behind him, but the Nationals have committed to limiting Strasburg to 160 innings this season.  They were up front about this limit before the season even began, but at the time it did not create much of a stir because the team was thought to be a year from contention.  Sixteen games in, the Nationals have a lot of people declaring that they have arrived a year early.  If the Nationals continue to play this well and remain in the pennant race, can the Nationals afford to sit Strasburg?

Strasburg’s innings limit will shadow the Nationals’ success all season long like a looming storm cloud.  As long as they stay in contention, this question will continue to surround the team.  Regardless of how much pressure the team may feel, the Nationals will have to sit him once he reaches his limit.

Let’s be honest, this is far too early to be talking about this.  The Nationals have played only 16 games, a shade under 10% of their regular season schedule.  There is a long way to go.  The Nationals could start tanking tomorrow and this would become a moot point.  For the team to begin wavering now on their plans for Strasburg would be foolish.  There’s no debate if the Nationals are basement dwellers yet again, you have very little to gain and everything to lose at that point.  This only becomes a question if the Nationals can continue their early season success.

Why did the Nationals draft Strasburg?  What did they hope to gain from him?  If the answer is one successful, competitive season, then by all means keep playing him.  But that isn’t why he was brought here.  He was brought in to be a long-term starting pitcher.  He was brought in to be a long-term ace.  Now I’m not going to say that the team should have Strasburg’s best interest at heart and nothing else.  That’s completely naïve.  If Strasbrug were 39, the team would and should run him into the ground because the window would be rapidly closing on his career.  At 23 years old, however, Strasburg’s career is still largely in front of him.  Why would you risk that for one playoff run?  Granted, success is never guaranteed and every team’s goal should be to win, but the Nationals can help set themselves up for long-term future success or they can risk that for one playoff run.  Seems like a no-brainer to me.

The Nationals also have great pitching depth.  It would be one thing if you had no one to replace Strasburg, but the Nationals have plenty of other options.  Chien-Ming Wang is expected to recover soon from a hamstring injury and he will replace Ross Detweiler.  It is hard to put much faith in Wang, however, to call him injury prone would be an understatement.  He is a walking china-cabinet, but the Nationals still seem confident in his abilities.  If he gets injured again, Detweiler has shown thus far he can be a dependable starter.  The Nationals also have another option in John Lannan, who was sent to the minor leagues prior to the beginning of the season.  Lannan led the team in wins last season with 10 and carries with him a high salary so the Nationals would not hesitate to bring him back into the rotation if they needed to.  There is a chance he could be traded before he is brought up, but his demotion has thus far generated little interest from other teams.

Every player and every injury is unique so it is impossible to predict how Strasburg’s arm will hold up, but based on recent history, limiting innings is the best way to treat someone recovering from Tommy John.  Strasburg has adjusted his pitching style in order to lower his pitch count and his arm may in fact be 100% healthy.  His arm may stay strong no matter how many pitches he throws this season, but in truth we cannot know for sure.  There have been numerous pitchers who have seen their career’s shortened by injuries.  If this were to happen to Strasburg it would be a devastating blow to the organization.  Ace’s are hard to come by, and the Nationals have to do what they can to protect their investment.