Redskins Set to Meet Cowboys in Division Championship Matchup

The Redskins will wrap up the regular season next week with a game at home against the arch-rival Dallas Cowboys in a winner-take-all matchup for the NFC East division. It will be the first time the Redskins have ever hosted a head-to-head matchup to determine the division championship in the regular season finale. The loser could be out of the playoffs all together. Oh, and the game has been flexed to prime time.

Are the stakes high enough yet?

Perhaps the most storied rivalry in the NFL will add yet another momentous chapter next week as the two teams meet with the division on the line. The Redskins can turn the page on their recent ineptitude and the Cowboys can end the dream season of rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III, someone who is sure to be a thorn in their side for many years to come. After the beat-down Griffin subjected them to in Jerry World on Thanksgiving, the Cowboys would love nothing more than to ruin Griffin’s Christmas.

Still, regardless of what happens, one must not forget the hill the Redskins had to climb just to get to this point.

Just seven short weeks ago, the Redskins lost 21-13 to the lowly Carolina Panthers. It was the lowest point of the season. The team was playing terribly and Mike Shanahan was talking about evaluating the team for next year. Another season seemed lost.

Were the Redskins mathematically eliminated from the playoffs at 3-6? No, but I mean, they would have to pretty much win every game left on their schedule to have a realistic chance….

Only four other teams in the NFL have won 6 or more straight games this season, and all four of those teams have already punched their tickets to the playoffs. The last time the Redskins won six straight was in 1996 when Norv Turner was the coach. It is not an easy thing to do. Yet, it might not be good enough should the Redskins lose the finale.

As the game has been moved to prime time, the Redskins will know exactly what they are facing by kick off. If Minnesota or Chicago wins next week, then the Redskins will be eliminated with a loss to Dallas.

The Redskins, however, will not concern themselves with all the various scenarios. For them, it’s very simple: win and you’re in.

Dallas too has turned their season around after some early struggles. They began the season 3-5 and many wondered if head coach Jason Garrett’s days were numbered. Since then, they have won five of their last seven including two overtime wins. The Cowboys will not be a pushover.

The way this season has gone, I’m sure the Redskins wouldn’t have it any other way.

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Wizards Walk Away from Deal for Harden

There was a sense of cautious optimism surrounding the Wizards heading into the 2012-13 season.  After a 3-20 start, however, expectations have lowered considerably.  John Wall has yet to play and the roster has been exposed without him.

Do you think James Harden could have helped?

Last week, it was leaked by several anonymous sources that the Wizards passed up a deal for James Harden in the offseason.  Sources vary on what Oklahoma City was asking for with some reports saying it would have taken Bradley Beal and Chris Singleton and others saying the Thunder wanted an established player as part of the deal.  The Wizards, however, walked away.

What was the issue?  Money.  The sources again vary on the specifics.  The Washington Post reported that the Wizards would have been subject to the luxury tax with the addition of Harden’s contract.  Other outlets reported that owner Ted Leonsis did not want to commit $80 million to Harden.  Leonsis has come out and denied both reports.

I am always hesitant to argue that an owner is not committed to building a winning franchise, but this looks really bad. Owners are usually successful businessmen who are savvy enough to understand that winning teams put people in seats.  There are always exceptions to the rule and I know there are dysfunctional franchises with terrible owners out there, but I have a hard time believing this is one of those cases.

Leonsis rebuilt the Capitals from one of the least profitable organizations to one of the most popular teams in the NHL.  He did it by giving out big contracts to star players, but the team went through a lengthy rebuilding process to get there.  I am sure the blueprint for the Wizards is probably pretty similar.

The problem is that the NBA is a different animal than the NHL.  The NBA is the most star driven sports league in America.  When you have the chance to bring one in at a relatively cheap price, you have to pull the trigger, especially when have no other way of attracting stars to come to the team.

Right now, there is no reason for a star player to sign in DC.  The team is terrible and DC is not really considered a “basketball” town.  When a star has a chance to sign with Miami, Boston, the Lakers, or Washington, in most cases the Wizards are going to be on the bottom of that list.

How do teams like Oklahoma City grow into a powerhouse?  They draft a star to build around.  Once that player establishes himself, it becomes easier to entice other players to sign with you.  No doubt that was the team’s plan with Wall which makes the timing of his injury potentially devastating.  The third year is often a make or break year for young talent.  If Wall is truly a budding young star, he needed to have a breakout year.

Would a free agent be more excited about playing with Wall or Kyrie Irving?  Wall is hoping his injury won’t keep him out for the entire season, Irving is playing like a superstar.  Out of sight, out of mind.

The Wizards have not done nearly enough to give hope to the fan base since Leonsis took over.  They got rid of the morons, drafted Wall, and traded for Nene.  That’s about it.  With people already questioning if Leonsis is committed to building the Wizards into a winning franchise, a report saying he turned his back on a player like Harden because he was too expensive just adds fuel to the fire.  The Wizards brought in Emeka Okafor and Trevor Ariza, but Harden is where you draw the line?

There’s no guarantee Harden would be playing as well in DC as he is in Houston and even then Houston is only seventh in the West.  Still, the Wizards look absolutely pathetic.  Harden would have given fans something to watch while waiting for Wall.  Now, the Wizards have nothing to draw the fans.  A $50 ticket to watch Jan Vessely and Jordan Crawford is a tough sell.  Even when Wall does come back, he certainly won’t be able to save the season.  It’s not even Christmas yet, but the season already feels lost.

Of course all of this is easy for me to say, it’s not my $80 million. After years of turmoil and pathetic seasons, however, you have to prove to your fan base that you are committed to making the team better.  When you pass up an opportunity to bring in Harden because he would cost too much, it sends the wrong message to fans and potential free agents.  If bringing in players like Harden isn’t part of the plan, maybe it’s time to make a new plan.

Redskins’ Short-term and Long-term Gamble Pays Off

The Redskins raised more than a few eyebrows last April when in the fourth round the team drafted Michigan State quarterback, Kirk Cousins.  They had drafted Robert Griffin III as the second overall pick to be their franchise QB.   Why waste the pick on another rookie QB?

Fast-forward to week 14.   The Redskins trailed the Ravens by eight with a chance for the division title perhaps on the line.  Suddenly, as Griffin scrambled away from pressure, Haloti Ngata hit him so hard that he seemingly separated Griffin’s body from his knee.  Fans held their collective breath as Griffin hobbled down the field, trying to keep the drive and perhaps the season alive.

It soon became clear he would not be able to finish out the game.  Enter Kirk Cousins.

Cousins came in cold, but went 2 for 2 and hit Pierre Garcon in the end zone for a touchdown.  He capped it all off with a two-yard draw for the game tying two-point conversion.  The Redskins had tied it up and forced overtime where Kai Forbath sealed the 31-28 win.

On Saturday, after a week of watching and waiting, the Redskins announced that Cousins would start against the Brows.  After a very slow start and an interception that led to Cleveland’s first touchdown, Cousins strung together an efficient, very impressive game.  He completed 26 of 37 passes for 329 yards and two touchdowns as the Redskins defeated the Browns 38-21.

He did it under immense pressure both on and off the field.  It’s hard to step in for a new hero.  Cleveland’s defense also came in with an aggressive game plan.  With no Griffin, they decided they were going to blitz early and often.  He took some shots, but he got the job done.

While drafting Cousins may have seemed odd, it did make a certain amount of sense. In the later rounds, NFL teams make picks based on value rather than just on need alone.  When a second round caliber QB drops to the fourth round you have an opportunity to steal a real playmaker.  It does not always work out that way, but every draft pick comes with a certain amount of risk.

It’s not about a lack of confidence in Griffin, it’s about having a better backup option than Rex Grossman and having a very valuable trade asset in the future.

It was definitely a gamble.  The Redskins have been dressing only two rookie QBs all season.  There was no guarantee Cousins would be up to the task if Griffin ever went down.  With Grossman inactive most weeks, there would be no one else to turn to if Cousins could not handle the NFL level.  The gamble, however, appears to have paid off.

While Cousins is no Griffin, he has shown that he can be more than just a dependable backup.  We would all like to see Griffin come back as soon as possible, but there is no reason to rush him.  Now, he has another full week to heal and if his knee still is not better by next week, playing Cousins feels like much less of a risk than he did only a few days ago.

The backup QB is an often overlooked position, but every team is always one play away from needing one.  Cousins has shown why it is important to have someone dependable on your depth chart behind the starter.  As a rookie, his ceiling is still high which means his value is as well.  In his one game and two brief appearances, he already looks better than any QB on Arizona or the Jets’ roster.  Cousins’ payoff will not just be on the field.  Expect to see some offers in the offseason.  Teams will pay a lot for what they see as a possible franchise QB.   As the Redskins have few draft picks and are up against a cap penalty, it will be worth listening to what other teams have to offer.

Every QB has bad games and Cousins will be no exception.  When the Redskins needed him, however, he stepped up and got the big win.  Should they need him again, Shanahan no doubt will name him starter with more confidence then perhaps he had last week.

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College Football Season Capped off by Ridiculous Postseason Format

The college football season will be settled yet again by an arbitrary matchup between two teams we are pretty sure deserve to be there.  While a four-team playoff is on the way in 2014, many of the problems that plague college football’s postseason will remain.

In 1992, the BCS was created out of necessity to pit two teams together in a national championship game.  Since teams and conferences had bowl affiliations, the two best teams would rarely play one another to end the season.  As a result, it was difficult to determine an overall national champion.

The new system was an upgrade, but as we have seen nearly every single year this two-team system remains far too exclusive.  This year, Alabama will play Notre Dame in the National Championship Game.  Alabama is one of five teams in the BCS top 25 with one loss.  Alabama may seem to most people as the best one-loss team, but in reality there is very little that separates them from the others.

What’s worse is that there could have been multiple undefeated teams at the end of the season.  If Notre Dame, Alabama, Kansas State, and Oregon had all gone undefeated, two of those four would have been excluded.  This nightmare scenario happened in the 2004-05 season.  Southern California, Oklahoma, and Auburn were all undefeated.  With nothing to separate the three and with a two-team system, Auburn was somehow excluded.  Just as a quick aside, can you imagine an SEC team going undefeated today and NOT getting a place in the National Championship game?

Somehow, the BCS managed to survive until last season when enough was enough and it was announced the format for the national championship will change into a four-team playoff.  While this is progress, it still does not go far enough.

I know it sounds like I am beating a dead horse by tearing apart a system that has been universally panned, but that’s not the point.  The purpose of this article is not to point out the obvious flaws that have already been discussed ad nauseam, but instead to highlight the fact that instituting a four-team playoff is like putting a band-aid on a broken arm.

Let’s take the top four teams in the BCS standings this year as a hypothetical playoff.  This would give us Notre Dame, Alabama, Florida, and Oregon.  One could argue that all four teams are deserving of a title shot.  This would, however, also exclude one loss Kansas State who I would argue is no less deserving.  You are left with the exact same problem of a two-team system: it still excludes teams just as deserving of a title shot as those selected.

But wait, doesn’t college basketball have the same problem?  Every year experts debate over the most deserving teams and some are inevitably left out of March Madness.  Won’t any system have the exclusion problem no matter how big?  While this is true, the difference is that the 69^th best basketball team in the nation cannot reasonably argue that they are legitimate national championship contenders.  The lowest seed to ever win March Madness was an eight when Villanova won in 1985.  There is a huge difference between leaving out the 69^th best team and the fifth.

Still, the powers that be drag their feet on a full-blown playoff system.  Most people want to see either eight or 16 teams battle it out, but the fans are given the most ridiculous arguments for why this won’t happen.

Since the football season ends at the end of November/beginning of December, a playoff system could potentially interfere with then end of the college semester.  Well, the FCS (formerly I-AA football) has been using a playoff system of eight teams or more since 1981.  Somehow not every FCS football player has dropped out of school.  I promise you the football schedule could be adjusted to accommodate academics.

Another argument is that playoffs would either end the bowl system or diminish their importance.  This is untrue for two reasons.  First, the bowls could be incorporated into a playoff system.  For example, the four current BCS bowls could be converted into quarterfinal games.  Whatever bowls are not incorporated could be played by teams not in the playoffs.  The NCAA could make it work.

Secondly, a playoff system would not diminish bowl games any more than sponsors already have.  Do you think players can say with pride that they are playing in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl?  Or how about the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl?  When I see bowls like the Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl, it seems pretty evident that people stopped caring about the prestige of the bowl system a long time ago.  Adding a playoff system really won’t hurt, unless of course you’re a big fan of the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl (my personal favorite).

Perhaps the most compelling and only real argument there is against the playoff system is that it could diminish the regular season.  I admit, the regular season of college football is the most important of pretty much any sport.  Every game turns into a pseudo “playoff” game for national title hopefuls.  A single loss can end the dream of raising the crystal trophy.

The problem, however, is that the big teams know their season hangs in the balance every week and so they schedule patsies they can beat up on while preparing for conference opponents.  Here are some of the matchups we were given in week 12 of this season: Alabama vs. Western Carolina, Florida vs. Jacksonville State, South Carolina vs. Wofford, Georgia vs. Georgia Southern, Auburn vs. Alabama A&M, Texas A&M vs. Sam Houston State, and Kentucky vs. Samford.  Even the most casual of college football fans can see these are pretty lackluster games.   Almost the entire SEC decided to take the weekend off and THIS is the regular season we have to protect?

With all due respect to the FCS, people are not glued to the TV when the best conference in the nation decides to hold a series of scrimmages in the middle of the season.  The nonconference schedule for many teams is becoming a joke because the margin for error is so small.  I personally would rather see postseason games against the best teams in the country instead of Alabama’s backups blowout Western Carolina midseason.

Don’t despair though, a larger playoff format is not far behind.  The fact is that college football is dominated by money.  If you don’t believe me, go back and re-read the names of the bowls I listed.  It won’t take long for people to realize that more playoff games between the best teams in the nation will mean more money.  It’s a simple equation.  What’s not so simple, however, is determining a fair system that can finally include all the true national title contenders while keeping all the decision-makers happy, but that’s an argument for another day.

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Nationals Bring in Span, Still have Decisions to Make

The Nationals made their first big move in the offseason, addressing their need for a leadoff hitter.

The team announced Thursday that they had traded pitching prospect Alex Meyer to Minnesota in exchange for center fielder Denard Span.  With a .284 batting average and a .357 on-base percentage, Span looks to be the leadoff hitter the Nationals sorely needed.

Not only did the Nationals add a key piece to their lineup, they also gained some flexibility regarding Adam LaRoche and Michael Morse.  Heading into the offseason, it seemed unlikely the Nationals would keep both.  Now it's all but certain.

LaRoche is coming off arguably the best season of his career, with 33 home runs and 100 RBIs.  He won both a Golden Glove and a Silver Slugger and was undoubtedly the team MVP in 2012.

The problem is that he is a free agent.  While he has expressed interest in returning to Washington, he also has reportedly asked for a three-year deal.  At 33 years old, the Nationals are reluctant to lock him up for so long at what will undoubtedly be a hefty price tag.

Morse, on the other hand, is still under contract and younger at 30.  Injuries, however, are a major concern as they have hindered the power-hitter for much of his career.

If the Nationals don’t re-sign LaRoche, Morse would move to first base, but the Nationals would be taking a huge risk with Morse’s durability.  They would also be losing LaRoche for nothing.  Trading Morse will at least get them something in return.

The Nationals put together a winning roster in 2012 and I would be reluctant to let the biggest reason for that, the team MVP, walk away for nothing.  Yes, you take the risk of his numbers declining because of his age, but no more of a risk than you take with Morse's health.

The Nationals also find themselves in need of a starting pitcher this offseason.  The biggest name available is of course Zack Grienke, but I would be shocked if the Nationals had any serious interest in him.

Grienke would reportedly cost around $100 million.  With Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez already in the rotation, Grienke would be third at the very least, maybe even fourth behind Jordan Zimmermann.  Don’t hold your breath for this blockbuster signing in DC.

In addition to a starter, the Nationals will also look for a left-handed reliever.  With the decision to non-tender Tom Gorzelanny, the Nationals have no left-handed relievers on the roster.  They could re-sign Sean Burnett or Michael Gonzalez, but I would not be surprised to see them bring in a new name as well.

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A Special Thanksgiving for RG3

In a rookie season full of special moments, Robert Griffin III added yet another one on the biggest stage yet.  On Thanksgiving Day in Dallas, Griffin carved apart the Cowboys’ secondary like he was carving up a Thanksgiving turkey.

It was a nationally televised game in “Jerry world” out of Griffin’s home state of Texas.  He was thrust into one of the most storied rivalries in the NFL and he played like he belonged.  He went 20 of 28 for 311 yard and 4 touchdowns in perhaps his most impressive NFL performance yet.

The Redskins jumped to a 28-3 lead at halftime, dominating the Cowboys in just about every aspect of the game.  The Cowboys made a run in the second half and Griffin stepped up again.

Up 35-28 in the fourth, the Redskins were in desperate need of a long drive.  The Cowboys had managed to cut the deficit to one possession and all the momentum was on their side.  Griffin delivered clutch pass after clutch pass, leading the Redskins down the field for a Kai Forbath field goal that put the Redskins up by ten.

The numbers are not what made Griffin’s performance impressive, it was how he got them.  He showed pin-point accuracy on his passes from all parts of the field.  Whether it was hitting Aldrick Robinson deep, throwing just behind a leaping defender into the waiting arms of Pierre Garcon in the middle of the field, or throwing just behind a tightly covered Santana Moss where only he could catch, he showed accuracy and vision in all the different spots on the field.  He’s not a gunslinger, he doesn’t just check down, his accuracy is not limited to any specific route or distance; he can throw it anywhere.

So I’m not exactly going out on a limb here by writing about how good Griffin is, but the point is that he has absolutely surpassed even the most optimistic of expectations.  More importantly, he makes the team around him better.

The Redskins have scored 35 touchdowns this year and Griffin has accounted for 22 of them (16 through the air, six on the ground).  The Redskins boast a 5-6 record and are in the division hunt despite having the 30^th ranked pass defense in the league.  If the Redskins do manage to make the playoffs, he should be the unanimous MVP because he will have single-handedly elevated this team to that level of play.  I’m not saying he will be, just saying he should….

All hyperbole aside, I still am not overly optimistic in terms of playoffs for this season, but that does not take away from what he has already accomplished.  Not only does Griffin look like he will be a top NFL quarterback, he looks like a clutch one as well, capable of delivering when it’s most important.

An elite talent who plays his best games on the biggest stage?  Sounds like a franchise quarterback to me.

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Wizards' problems go beyond their injured stars

All you could do was laugh.

Down by one to Atlanta, Martell Webster hit a layup as the buzzer sounded. The shot initially counted and the Wizards looked as if they had finally gotten their first win.  The referees conferred, reviewed the video, and declared the shot was late. The Wizards fell to a franchise-worst 0-10.

All the high hopes and expectations have been derailed in a single month. The Wizards spent much of the offseason declaring they were no longer a lottery team, that they could compete for a playoff spot. It certainly does not look like that’s going to happen.

The biggest issue the Wizards have faced is health. Both John Wall and Nene, the team’s two most important players, were injured to start the season. It is no secret that the Wizards had hoped to build a team around Wall. When they were suddenly left with nothing more than a supporting cast, struggles were sure to follow.

To start the season 0-10, however, is not just bad, but historically bad. Only 13 teams in NBA history have started 0-10.  Don’t worry though, the Wizards have only lost by an average of 7 points, the best of those 13.  Congratulations, you are the best, worst team of all time.

As bad as things are, however, it is tough to put the blame on anyone on the court or on head coach Randy Wittman.  The players do look like they are legitimately trying out there.  Wittman is doing absolutely everything he can think of to right the ship.  While his news conferences and roster moves sometimes appear utterly desperate, it is hard to blame him for trying to get creative with a bad roster.

Do you think the Clippers would struggle without Blake Griffin and Chris Paul?  How about the Heat if they played without Lebron James and Dwayne Wade?  Of course no amount of injuries can justify perpetually losing in the NBA, but in my mind it does shift the blame from Wittman and the team to the front office.

The real mistake the Wizards made was building a team around a center whose health was a legitimate concern and a still unproven star point guard.  Nene has played ten seasons in the NBA and injuries have shortened his season to less than 70 games in five of those seasons.  He played a total of 39 games last year.

John Wall has not played more than 70 games in either season of his still short NBA career.  The concern with Wall, however, is not injury, but whether or not he will become the superstar talent the Wizards hoped he would be when they drafted him number one overall pick in the draft.

Wall is a very good point guard and his future looks bright, but he is not the cornerstone talent that franchises can build around.  The Wizards need to change their approach from bringing in supporting talent to bringing in star talent.  Granted that is easier said than done in today’s NBA where stars tend to follow stars, but let’s get realistic here.  Wall is not an elite talent capable of taking the Wizards to the next level by himself.

Nene was a good, albeit fragile, addition.  His presence addressed a real need for defense and leadership, but his health makes him difficult to rely on.  Bringing in Trevor Ariza and Emeka Okafor is not the answer and not just because of their early season struggles.  Both players are nice additions, but there was a reason they were traded.  New Orleans needed to get out from under their bad contracts.  “Bad contracts” are only bad when players are getting paid a lot more than they are worth.  Kobe Bryant makes a lot of money too, but the Lakers aren’t trying to trade him.

The Wizards would be a lot better with a healthy Wall and Nene in their lineup, but that does not justify an 0-10 start.  What this has shown is just how bad the “supporting cast” really is.  When Cleveland lost Lebron to the infamous “decision”, they did not start 0-10 the following season.  It is time to get back to the drawing board for Ernie Grunfeld and the Wizards.

Blogs coming!

Busy holiday week, but blogs are coming!  Check back Friday.

Mike Shanahan is Starting to Feel the Heat

Following a disappointing loss to the Carolina Panthers last week, Mike Shanahan seemingly threw in the towel on the 2012 season.  In his post-game press conference, Shanahan said he would use the rest of the season to evaluate the players and determine who “is going to be on your football team for years to come.”

Shanahan spent a good deal of time last week back-tracking, but while he was talking about evaluating player’s futures, a lot of people began to think about his.

The Redskins may not be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, but they face an uphill climb.  The team is only 14-27 under Shanahan and, barring an incredible run to finish the season, he will have failed to lead the Redskins to the playoffs in any of his three seasons.  At this point, many would have expected more progress.

It is not as if the Redskins have been quietly bad either.  Albert Haynesworth, Donovan McNabb, and John Beck all served as black-eyes to the organization.  While Shanahan did not bring in Haynesworth, he clearly mishandled the situation.  Bringing in his son, Kyle, to coach the offense felt like nepotism at its worst and Kyle has done little to prove otherwise.  Defensively, the Redskins have been trying to convert to a 3-4 defense for three years and still look as if they lack to personnel to run it successfully.

While Shanahan may have whiffed on a lot since coming to Washington, he finally got things right with Griffin.  Now the Redskins have one of the most electrifying players in the game and someone they can build an offense around.  Shanahan deserves some credit for gambling so much on a player who already looks to be paying off nine games into his career.

Changing coaches now could also hurt Griffin’s growth as an NFL player.  If Mike goes, Kyle is going with him.  A new coach will bring a new offense.  True, a coach with any sense at all will base his offense around Griffin’s skills and make it as easy a transition as possible, but never the less, they will bring a new system with them.

At one time, Jason Campbell was also thought to be the future franchise QB, but he never was able to get comfortable because he had to learn a new offense almost every year.  Daniel Snyder is not about to let that happen to Griffin.

While it is true that the Redskins have not seen much progress in terms of wins and losses, there has been progress.  The team was a mess after the Jim Zorn era.  The Redskins have started to build through the draft rather than buying over-the-hill talent.  They have committed to a slow and steady approach, now is not the time to start over.

A lot of frustration came boiling over last week in the wake of Shanahan’s comments, but what was your expectation for the season?  With an $18 million cap penalty that prevented the team from fixing glaring personnel flaws as well as a rookie quarterback, the outlook for the season was glum.  Griffin has been great and helped the Redskins to a 3-3 record to start the season, but they were overachieving; the team is not yet ready for the postseason.

I would argue that the fairest measure for Shanahan will be the 2014 season.  The cap penalty will carry over to next season and the Redskins will not have a first round draft pick thanks to the Griffin trade.  This will continue to handcuff Shanahan’s ability to make this team better.  The 2014 year will be Shanahan’s fifth and final year of his initial contract.  It will be the ultimate test to see if Shanhan has truly improved this team.  If the Redskins are still a basement-dweller, then it’s time to move on.

Two more years, however, may be too long for Snyder.  Things will have to get a whole lot worse this season for Shanahan to be in any real trouble, but you do wonder how long Snyder can remain patient.  Cap penalty or no, Shanahan is going to have to show a reason why he should remain coach or he will not be around to evaluate his players anymore.

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RG-Newton?

As the football world turned its collective attention to the matchup between the last two Heisman trophy winners, the inevitable comparison began to be made.  With all the struggles we have seen from Cam Newton this season, is Robert Griffin III destined for a similar sophomore slump?

Newton took the NFL by storm in his rookie year.  Originally thought to be a second or third round pick, Newton’s stock rose considerably after the National Championship and NFL combine.  He eventually rose to the point where the Carolina Panthers decided to take a chance on him and took him number one overall.

A Heisman trophy winner picked in the draft to revive a struggling franchise who took the NFL by storm in his rookie year?  You can see why the two are being compared.

Newton, however, has struggled this year.  Through eight games, he has thrown for six touchdowns and eight interceptions.  After setting a rookie record for rushing touchdowns last year with 14, he is currently on pace for eight.

Perhaps more troubling has been Newton’s demeanor.  He has looked absolutely despondent at times and his press conferences range from bizarre to downright depressing.  No one likes to lose, but it does not help when the emotional leader of the offense secludes himself on the sidelines with a towel over his head.

At 3-6, the Redskins have struggled much more than many anticipated.  If this continues into next season, will we see the same sort of statistical and emotional fall for Griffin?

While Newton’s rookie season was undoubtedly impressive, it masked the shortfalls of his game.  Those shortfalls are now being exposed.  Accuracy has always been an issue of Newton’s.  Last season he threw 17 interceptions, slightly more than one per game.  This season he has eight through eight games.  His accuracy was a known issue, but his intangibles made him worth the risk.

While people like comparing Griffin to Newton because of the similarities of their circumstances and their mobility, they are two very different quarterbacks.  Griffin has the ability to run, but he is a pocket passer.  He looks for the pass, and has a strong, accurate arm.  Griffin’s style is more suited to the NFL than Newton’s.

Griffin also has a different character and mentality than Newton does.  Newton was expelled from the University of Florida, transferred into junior college, and then to Auburn.  He was further investigated by the NCAA because his father allegedly demanded money from colleges for his son’s commitment.  Griffin committed to the University of Houston to play for coach Art Briles.  When Briles decided to accept the head coaching job at Baylor, Griffin decided to instead commit to Baylor where he played his entire college career.  Character was a red flag for Newton, not for Griffin.

Expectations were also too high for Carolina this year.  Center Ryan Kalil took out a newspaper ad at the beginning of the year declaring the Panthers were headed to the Super Bowl.  At 2-6, that’s obviously not going to happen.  The team’s struggles are not all Newton’s fault, but as the quarterback he obviously feels the most pressure.

Could the Redskins fall flat again next season?  There’s a definite chance.  The team has played terribly so far this year and with an $18 million cap penalty that will carry over to next season, the team will struggle to improve its personnel.  The pressure of a bad season will fall on Griffin, as well, but I doubt any of the failures will be because of him.  Much of the Redskins’ issues this year have been on the defensive side of the ball.  Griffin also does not have the turnover issues Newton has.  Whatever trouble the Redskins may have next season, Griffin is not likely to be part of the problem.  The same cannot be said of Newton this season.

NFL teams are going to get wise to Griffin’s game, that is inevitable, but he will get used to the NFL as well.  He will have his struggles, but his abilities and style of play are more suited to NFL success.  He also has good head on his shoulders.  He does not turn the ball over and always says the right thing on camera.  Griffin may well have a sophomore slump, but regardless he will still be an impressive player and you certainly are not going to see him mope on the sidelines.  Carolina can have their Superman, we’ll just take our man in the Superman socks.

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NHL Cancels Winter Classic, Regular Season Probably Not Far Behind

The NHL announced on Friday the cancellation of the Winter Classic.  As the Classic goes, so goes the season.  Go ahead and make other plans, get your ticket refunds, trade in your Caps merchandise for Wizards, because there is not going to be a hockey season.

This may seem like an overreaction, but I’ve said all along that if the Classic were to be cancelled, the season would not be far behind.

The NHL has lost its biggest event of the season.  According to ESPN, the Classic had 3.5 million viewers last year.  Every game of the Stanley Cup finals averaged about 3 million viewers.  The Classis is the signature event, the one day every year when hockey is relevant.  And now, it’s gone.

Yes, it is only the beginning of November.  There is plenty of time to save the season, but it does not matter. Even if the NHL and NHLPA came to an agreement tomorrow, the Classic could not be brought back.  Deputy commissioner Bill Daly told reporters as much.

Rumors of the cancellation had been circulating for over a week.  The reason why the NHL waited until Friday was because when the announcement was made, it was final.  The event takes months of planning and preparing.  An outdoor rink does not just appear over night and an event of this magnitude take time to pull off.

With the Classic gone, both sides will struggle to come to an equitable deal.  The players have lost all of their leverage.  The only thing they really had to threaten the owners with was the Classic.

The lockout began with each side feeling out the other.  How long would the league be willing to let this drag out?  Perhaps if the players could hold out until they could threaten the league’s cash cow, the owners would be willing to offer a better deal.  Now  the NHL has lost its biggest, most profitable, most important event of the year.  The players have overplayed their hand, and the league is going to make them pay for it.

Two weeks ago, the NHL offered the players a 50/50 deal.  The NHLPA responded with three counter proposals that gave them more than what the NHL was offering and the NHL quickly rejected those proposals.  Why would the NHL now give the players a better deal?  The owners would never have locked the players out if the regular season were that important to them.  They will risk this season to get the upper hand in the negotiations.

The owners have come to a point where they can force a better deal for themselves on the players.  Before, the goal for the NHL was to come to an equitable agreement in order to save the Classic and the regular season.  Now, the goal is to get the best deal they can possibly force from the players.

Think about it this way, in a hostage negotiation, what happens when there are no more hostages to exchange?  That’s when the SWAT team goes in.  The players have nothing left to negotiate with.

The NHLPA turned their noses at the NHL’s proposal two weeks ago.  They will not simply cave in now, but they also cannot hold out as long as the owners can.  The longer this drags out, the more desperate they will become.  When this is over, the players will look back at the NHL’s last proposal and wish they had accepted it because the offers are only going to get worse from here on out.

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Much Improved Wizards Team Hopes to Take Next Step

The Wizards sent a message at the end of last season; they were ready to turn the page on this embarrassing chapter in their history.  They were tired of the losing and of the embarrassing headlines off the court.

Head coach Flip Saunders was fired midway through the season, resident knuckleheads JaVale McGee and Nick Young were traded away for Nene and Brian Cook, and Andray Blatche was sent packing.  The moves had immediate results as the Wizards finished the 2011-2012 winning six straight and eight of their last ten.

The question, of course, is whether that success will continue this season.  The Wizards continued to improve in the offseason by trading the oft-injured and very expensive Rashard Lewis for Emeka Okafor and Trevor Ariza.  They also drafted the talented perimeter shooter Bradley Beal.

Looking at this new roster, there’s no doubt that it is a much improved squad.  McGee and Young were both talented, but the lack of leadership or discipline on this young team made DC a bad fit for them.  Nene gave this team instant leadership and, paired with Okafor, the Wizards suddenly look very strong in the paint.

Offensively, however, this team may struggle.  Beal looks to be a year away from being a top threat.  While he looked great in the Summer League, he has struggled in the preseason including a zero point performance in the finale against San Antonio.

Ariza, playing on his third team in four years, has also struggled in the preseason.  He is playing for his third team in four seasons, so perhaps some growing pains are to be expected, but the Wizards were expecting him to start and be a top offensive threat for them.  The fact that he is still struggling to produce is troubling.

The biggest problem facing the team right now is injuries.  John Wall needed to continue to prove himself to be a star this season, but he will sit the first month with a stress injury to his left knee.  Nene continues to struggle with plantar fasciitis in his left foot making his return to the team uncertain.  Kevin Seraphin, Chris Singleton, Trevor Booker, and Okafor have all missed games in the preseason because of an illness or injury.  It doesn’t matter what kind of roster the Wizards have assembled, if they can’t stay healthy they will struggle to find any success.

Still, it’s hard to argue against he moves the Wizards have made and the roster is undeniably more formidable now than it has been in several years.  Defense will be the key as this team continues to find its offensive identity.  Perimeter shooting will still be an issue, but there’s plenty to like about where this team is going.  If they can get healthy, they could potentially compete for one of the last playoff spots.  That might not sound like a glamorous outlook, but after four straight lottery years an eighth place finish sounds pretty good to me and probably sounds good to the Wizards as well.

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NHL Cancels More Games, Season Suddenly in Jeopardy

As the NHL locked its doors for the second time in eight years, the feeling among most experts was not whether we would have hockey, but when.  This might be the fourth work stoppage in 20 years, but with the lost 2004-05 season still fresh in everyone’s minds, both sides knew they had to come to a quick agreement for the good of the game.  Right?

 

Apparently not.  The NHL announced today that it has cancelled all regular season games through November 30^th.  There is also some speculation that the Winter Classic could be cancelled as early as Monday.  For the first time during the lockout, the season seems to be in real jeopardy.

 

From the beginning, this lockout seemed to be a gross miscalculation by the NHL.  Granted, players rarely “win” in these scenarios, but the NHLPA had more leverage than commissioner Gary Bettman initially acknowledged.

 

The players received escrow payments in October worth 8% of last season’s salary.  Many lockouts end quickly as the sting of the first missed paycheck begins to sink in for the players.  That was not going to happen this year.  Also, unlike in 2004, the NHL now has the Winter Classic to protect.  If the players could hold out until November, then they could use the Winter Classic as a major bargaining chip against the league.

 

Last week, the NHL offered a new proposal to the NHLPA which they posted in full on their website.  It offered the players a 50/50 revenue split and a chance for a full 82 game season.  The NHLPA responded with three counter proposals that the league immediately rejected.

 

While the NHL could have considered the proposals more thoroughly, the players used some pretty creative math that really did not come close to what the owners were asking.  Now the NHLPA has miscalculated.  They may have approached last week’s talks with an eye still on the Winter Classic, but the offer was about as good as it was going to get.  That’s not to say the players could not have negotiated further, but to offer three proposals that were way off the mark cost them an 82-game season.

 

If the league does cancel the Winter Classic as it is threatening, it is not as if the players could come back and accept the previous offer.  It is off the table.  Once the Winter Classic is cancelled, the players lose all of their leverage.  The owners will have no incentive to save the season and the players will end up with a much worse deal than the one the owners offered last week.

 

Of course, the Winter Classic has not yet been cancelled and all the speculation around its cancellation is just that, speculation.  The NHL could be spreading the rumor in an attempt to bring the players back to the table, but the players cannot afford to call their bluff.  There is still time for a deal to get done to save the season.  Now that negotiations have broken down and both sides engage in finger pointing, the outlook suddenly looks very bleak.

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National's Dream Season Has Nightmare Ending

The Nationals were one strike away from their first every playoff series win.  One more strike would send them to the NLCS.  Then it all came crashing down.

Washington fans were dealt another heartbreak last Friday as they witnessed one of the most spectacular collapses in sports history.  Up 6-0 in a series-clinching game five, the Nationals fell 9-7 after four allowed runs in the ninth inning.

The inevitable question being asked of course is if the Nationals could have won this series with Stephen Strasburg.  Strasburg would have pitched games one and five as the team’s ace.  Surely in a series that came down to game five, two games from Strasburg could have given the Nationals that one extra win?

I will say the same thing I said when Strasburg was shut down: we will never know.  All you pro-Strasburg critics do not have a crystal ball and have no idea how Strasburg would have pitched if given the chance.  Starting pitching was a major problem this series.  In two games, Gio Gonzalez walked 11 batters and gave up 5 runs.  Jordan Zimmermann allowed five runs and lasted only three innings in his one start.  Edwin Jackson, the only starter with postseason experience, lasted five innings while giving up five runs.  In fact, the only starter who did pitch well was the one who replaced Strasburg, Ross Detwiler.  While some would argue that adding Strasburg would have helped a rotation that struggled so much this series, there’s no guarantee he would not have struggled too.

Even if they had, it would not have mattered.  The Cardinals have been in pressure situations before.  After Friday’s win, the Cardinals have won six straight elimination games.  The Nationals, meanwhile, came into this series young and inexperienced.  If the Nationals learn one thing from this experience, it should be this: experience matters.

In June, the Nationals were one of the hottest teams in baseball.  The young team rode a six game winning streak into a series against the Yankees.  The series was the closest thing to a playoff atmosphere most of the players had experienced.  The Nationals were hot and the Yankees were the Yankees.  The national media and sold out crowds flocked to DC in anticipation.

The result?  The Nationals were swept.  Only one game was close, a marathon game that went 14 innings before the Yankees pulled away.  At that point it became clear; the Nationals were not yet ready for the playoffs.  They were not ready for that type of attention and pressure.

The Cardinals seemed like a good matchup when comparing rosters, but you cannot discount experience.  It takes a mentally strong team to battle back from a 6-0 deficit in the playoffs and an inexperienced one to lose it.

Heads up though, the future is bright in DC.  This team has a young core that will continue to grow and that Mike Rizzo can continue to build around.  Next season Strasburg will have no limitations, the team will have more experience, and the majority of the 98-game winning roster will return.  This one may hurt, but there are good times ahead for the Nationals.

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Should RG3 Play this Sunday?

Last Sunday, all of DC collectively held its breath as Robert Griffin III struggled to get up after a crushing hit to the head.  He managed to stagger to his feet, but he was soon taken to the locker room where he was diagnosed with a mild concussion.

The question on everyone’s mind this week has been whether Griffin would be ok to play Sunday against the Vikings.  Griffin has practiced all week and has not exhibited any concussion symptoms.  He has passed every test administered by doctors and, barring any setback between now and Sunday, it appears he will be able to play.

But should he?  There seems to be little discussion among the Redskins’ coaches or the fans in DC.  Why would you sit the most exciting player to play for the Redskins in at least 20 years?  Nationally, however, many are asking why the Redskins would risk it (as a quick aside, I find it ironic that the Nationals were skewered for even considering shutting down Stephen Strasburg, but now everyone thinks Griffin should sit.  Granted the Redskins are not playoff bound and we are only talking about one week, but I still find it ironic).  Concussions are very tricky.  They affect everyone differently and are very hard to predict.  The severity of concussions and their symptoms may worsen with successive injuries, even if a subsequent injury occurs months or years after the initial one.  Griffin suffered a concussion last year at Baylor and now five games into his NFL career he has already suffered another.  If he is concussion prone it is likely that each one will be more difficult to recover from and recovery from severe concussions can take up to several months (see Nicklas Backstrom).

The Redskins are not headed to the playoffs.  Let’s be real.  They’re 2-3 right now, and their schedule is going to get increasingly more difficult.  They are not the terrible team they have been over the past few years, but they still are not a playoff team.   What do they gain, therefore, by playing Griffin only a week after his concussion?

I’m not a doctor so I’m not saying definitively whether Griffin should sit or play, but while most people are asking if Griffin can play Sunday, there’s a more important question that needs to be asked: will Griffin be less likely to suffer a concussion if he does not play this week?  Obviously he won’t be concussed if he doesn’t play, but barring that, would there be any benefit to his health if he were to sit?  The Redskins should not just be concerned with whether Griffin passes the concussion tests, they should be thinking about how to prevent him from getting his next one.

Even if he does play, there are things the Redskins can do to better protect their quarterback.  Kyle Shanahan has come out and said Griffin’s injury will not affect his play-calling, but that’s probably just him posturing.  The Redskins have to be smarter offensively and they have already altered their calls accordingly.  In the first four games, Griffin averaged over 10 rushing attempts per game.  He had only one against Atlanta.  If teams think the playbook is wide open, however, they will have to prepare for it, explaining Kyle’s seemingly hard-line stance.

Griffin will also have to slide better.  He has taken more than a few shots this season that perhaps he did not have to take.  He has worked on sliding in practice this week, so hopefully we will see more of it as the season continues.

Ultimately, it all comes down to what the doctors say.  Concussions have become a major issue for the NFL so it is not as if he will be allowed to play before he is ready.  The issue is whether some “Strasburg” like precaution would benefit Griffin.  Even if he passes the concussion tests, will he benefit from sitting out this week?  If the doctors say he is completely fine and that another week won’t help him, then by all means let him play.  If there is any possibility, however, that it could help prevent another concussion.  You have to sit him.  Is the chance to go 3-3 worth risking your franchise QB?  Not to me.

Nationals Win First Ever Playoff Game, Take Control of Series

Throughout the regular season, the Nationals compiled the best record in the MLB because of the combined effort of their star players and supporting cast.  Whenever the stars struggled, there was always someone there to step-up.  It was no different Sunday as the Nationals took their first ever playoff game thanks to Tyler Moore and the bullpen.

With the shutdown of Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez was the clear ace.  Davey Johnson hoped for a strong outing from the starter to relieve the pressure off his inexperienced lineup, but Gio struggled to control his pitches.  In five innings, Gio allowed only one run, but gave up seven walks and a wild pitch that brought in the first run.  He settled down, but it was not the effort we have grown used to seeing this year.

The bullpen stepped up and held the Cardinals scoreless through the remaining four innings.  Craig Stammen came in to relieve Gio, followed by Ryan Mattheus who needed only two pitches to bail the Nationals out of a jam in the seventh.  The Cardinals loaded the bases with no outs thanks to an error by Adam LaRoche, a single, and Matt Holliday being hit by a pitch.  The Cardinals grounded into a force out at home, then grounded into a double play on the next pitch.  Tyler Clippard held the Cardinals at bay and Drew Storen came on in the ninth for the save.

While the bullpen bailed out a lackluster performance from Gio, it was Tyler Moore who stepped in to give the offense they needed.  Down 2-1 in the top of the eighth with runners on second and third, Johnson sent up Chad Tracy.  When the Cardinals responded with a call to the bullpen for lefty March Rzepcynski, Johnson rolled the dice and sent in Moore instead.  The gamble paid off.  Moore singled to right bringing in both runners and the Nationals took a 3-2 lead.

Taking the first in a series is always important, but for the Nationals it may well prove pivotal. It is important to start off on the right foot against the defending champions on their own field, especially with how inexperienced the Nationals are.  Now the first win is in the books, the jitters are gone; the players can get back into the rhythm of playing baseball.  Plus, with the ridiculous playoff format that awards the lower-seeded team the first two home games, it is crucial to steal one on the road.  Now, the Nationals need two wins in the remaining four games, and three of those four are in DC.

Lets not get carried away here.  This was only one win.  The Nationals still need two more and the Cardinals have won five straight games when facing elimination.  The defending champion are not a team that panics.  Still, it says a lot when a team as young as the Nationals can come back to win a game like this.  It is the ugly, unconventional games that prove the character of a team and the Nationals just passed a big test in St. Louis.

It was close, it was unconventional, and sometimes ugly, but the Nationals have their first ever playoff win and that’s all that matters.

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A Quarter into the Season, a Clearer Picture of the Redskins Emerging

Four games down in the NFL season and we have already learned a lot about who the 2012 Redskins are.  Most of the preseason questions have been answered and replaced by other questions.  Here’s a look at what we’ve learned so far:  Can Robert Griffin III live up to expectations?  Yes, he’s everything we thought and more.  Is the offensive line as bad as we thought?  No, it’s worse.  Will someone emerge as the top running back in a crowded backfield?  Yes, and it was Alfred Morris of all people.  Can the defense pick up where they left off last year?  Nope.

The offense has completely transformed from a year ago.  Led by Rex Grossman and John Beck, the Redskins were almost unwatchable.  Finally faced with the realization that the Redskins would never turn things around without a franchise quarterback, Mike Shanahan went all-in and traded for an opportunity to draft the highly-touted Griffin.  So far so good.  Griffin has a 69.4% completion percentage and a QB rating of 103.2.  He’s thrown for four TDs, rushed for four, and thrown only one interception.  He’s not only padding his own stats, he’s made the entire offense better.  The Redskins are third in the NFL in yards per game and fourth in points per games.  The offense never put up more than 30 points all of last season.  Griffin led the offense to 40 points in his first game.  It seemed impossible for Griffin to live up to expectations, but he’s managed to do just that.

Last season, the defense had to carry the theam.  This year it’s the defense that’s lacking, specifically the pass defense which ranks 31^st in the league.  Only Tampa Bay has played worse thus far.  As good as the offense has been, it’s hard to win when your team is giving up 30.8 points per game.  While the offense looks capable of putting up points all season long, the Redskins will continually struggle to put teams away.  Against Tampa Bay, the Redskins jumped out to a 21-3 lead, but they needed a field goal with seven seconds left to win the game 24-22.  They look absolutely terrible and things are only going to get harder.  Defensive coordinator Jim Haslett needs to fix things in a hurry.

The Redskins sit at 2-2 right now, but things may quickly turn ugly.  With Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and all six division games still on the schedule, the Redskins will struggle to keep their heads above water.  Even so, that’s ok.  The real goal of this season was to introduce Griffin to the NFL and show the Redskins were on the right track.  The problem won’t be how they perform this season, but next season. With few draft picks at their disposal and a cap penalty that will carry over to 2013, the team will struggle to fill the holes in the secondary and the offensive line.  Bruce Allen will do what he can, but it is likely the Redskins will not have the resources to fix the problems they face.  If the Redskins find themselves struggling again next season, will the patience of Dan Snyder and the fans finally run out?  Snyder has fired coaches for a lot less.  Will people be able to keep the big picture in mind this season and the next or will Griffin’s success bring back the “win now” mentality that has hampered the organization for so many years?

Mike Shanahan has made his share of mistakes as head coach.  Hiring his son as offensive coordinator seemed like nepotism at its absolute worse and Kyle has done little to prove critics wrong.  Grossman and Beck might actually be a worse QB tandem than Brady Quinn and Colt McCoy, and it’s made even more embarrassing by the fact that this QB competition was by design rather than necessity.  Still, I see a lot of potential in the core the Redskins have brought in during the Shanahan era and I am wary of dismantling the coaching staff when things finally seem to be on the right track.  So, let’s everyone take a collective deep breath.  Griffin looks great, but the Redskins aren’t Super Bowl bound this year or next year.  The Redskins may be a .500 team in 2012 and 2013, but don’t panic.  It’s all part of the plan.

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