Monday, April 30, 2012

Redskins get their...Quarterbacks?


With the second overall pick in the 2012 draft, the Redskins surprised no one by selecting Robert Griffin III. The highly touted quarterback from Baylor has been anointed as the savior of the franchise since the Redskins pulled off a massive trade to move up to number two in the draft in order to claim him. The rest of the team’s draft was expected to be a collection of offensive linemen and “best available” picks, but in the fourth round the Redskins unexpectedly drafted Michigan State quarterback Kirk Cousins. Thought by many experts to be a starting caliber QB, the move raised more than a few eyebrows from around the league, even with Cousins himself. "I was shocked," he said, "Knowing what they had done with the No. 2 pick, and that I hadn't talked to them that much in the whole process." Cousins was not the only one surprised. Everyone has been analyzing this pick trying to figure out just what it means. Are the Redskins already questioning RGIII’s potential? Is the team headed for a quarterback controversy? Don’t worry DC, it’s not time to re-evaluate RGIII.

So who is this new QB? Kirk Cousins was the starting QB at Michigan State since 2009. In his redshirt senior season, he threw for 3,316 yards and 25 touchdowns. While he was not the highest rated QB in the draft, many scouts thought he had clear starting potential, including Jon Gruden who thought he could be as high as a second round pick. The Redskins picked him up in the fourth round with the 102nd overall pick. With the team so clearly set on RGIII, it seemed an odd choice as it does create the potential for a QB controversy. Imagine if Cousins plays lights out in the preseason and RGIII struggles in the regular season. Eventually there could be pressure to sit him in favor of Cousins. Also, RGIII is not living in a cave, he’s fully aware the Redskins have drafted another QB. The team has already put the weight of the franchise on his young shoulders, should he really have to think about beating out another young QB to earn that job?

Ok, everyone, take a deep breath and calm down. There is no QB controversy in DC. The Redskins traded a second round pick and three first round picks to get Griffin. Mike Shanahan’s future is tied to RGIII’s success. If he fails, Shanahan will fail. Shanahan will do everything he can to make sure RGIII succeeds. As for the added pressure, if RGIII is the professional we hope he is, he should not care at all about Cousins. He is going to be a rookie starting QB in the NFL. He is going to be under the public spotlight. If he can’t handle a backup QB, he can’t handle the NFL. It’s a non factor. All QBs have backups, they have to learn to live with it.

Some have theorized that Cousins was brought it to pressure RGIII a little bit to train hard so he’s ready to take over the team, but that’s simply ridiculous. The Redskins would not have paid as high a price for RGIII as they did if they thought he needed extra motivation. In the fourth round of the draft teams are looking both for players to fill holes and for the best available talent. When Cousins fell to the fourth round, the Redskins felt he was the best player available and could not pass on him. Who would you have preferred they take? Of course there is still talent on the board in the fourth round, but if you believe so much in Cousins then it makes a certain amount of sense. The problem I have with the pick is not that it puts added pressure on RGIII, but that the Redskins used one of their few picks on a position they no longer needed to fill. The Redskins gave up four picks, two in this draft, to take RGIII. They should not be using yet another draft pick to get someone who they know is not going to play.

When the Redskins were on the board, they must have thought he was the best player on the board and that he provided them with insurance should RGIII get injured. He also could be a potential trade asset of the future. Best case scenario is that both thrive in the NFL. Seriously, who cares if Cousins turns out to be great? Trade him. I don’t see this as being bad for RGIII or that it will add too much pressure on him. All the pressure in the world is already on his shoulders. I just think this was a waste of a pick, but it’s not like the Redskins haven’t wasted numerous picks over the years.

Monday, April 23, 2012

Should the Nationals Bench Stephen Strasburg?

There’s a new feeling coming from DC and Nationals’ Park this spring, something we haven’t felt since the team first arrived from Montreal: optimism.  The Nationals are off to their best start since coming to DC with a 12-4 record.  They currently sit atop the NL East and the whole baseball world is starting to take notice.  This team is not a joke anymore and the major reason is their pitching.
The Nationals currently lead the league in ERA with 2.34, BAA with .202, and are tied for first in strikeouts with 144.  The pitching has had to carry the team somewhat as they rank only 21st in runs scored with 58, but so far they have been up to the task.
The Nationals’ rotation is led by young ace Stephen Strasburg, who at 23 years old can already be considered one of the best pitchers in baseball.  Through four games he has a 1.08 ERA with 25 strikeouts.  A lot of fans are beginning to breathe a little easier believing that his Tommy John surgery from September 2010 is now fully behind him, but the Nationals have committed to limiting Strasburg to 160 innings this season.  They were up front about this limit before the season even began, but at the time it did not create much of a stir because the team was thought to be a year from contention.  Sixteen games in, the Nationals have a lot of people declaring that they have arrived a year early.  If the Nationals continue to play this well and remain in the pennant race, can the Nationals afford to sit Strasburg?
Strasburg’s innings limit will shadow the Nationals’ success all season long like a looming storm cloud.  As long as they stay in contention, this question will continue to surround the team.  Regardless of how much pressure the team may feel, the Nationals will have to sit him once he reaches his limit.
Let’s be honest, this is far too early to be talking about this.  The Nationals have played only 16 games, a shade under 10% of their regular season schedule.  There is a long way to go.  The Nationals could start tanking tomorrow and this would become a moot point.  For the team to begin wavering now on their plans for Strasburg would be foolish.  There’s no debate if the Nationals are basement dwellers yet again, you have very little to gain and everything to lose at that point.  This only becomes a question if the Nationals can continue their early season success.
Why did the Nationals draft Strasburg?  What did they hope to gain from him?  If the answer is one successful, competitive season, then by all means keep playing him.  But that isn’t why he was brought here.  He was brought in to be a long-term starting pitcher.  He was brought in to be a long-term ace.  Now I’m not going to say that the team should have Strasburg’s best interest at heart and nothing else.  That’s completely naïve.  If Strasbrug were 39, the team would and should run him into the ground because the window would be rapidly closing on his career.  At 23 years old, however, Strasburg’s career is still largely in front of him.  Why would you risk that for one playoff run?  Granted, success is never guaranteed and every team’s goal should be to win, but the Nationals can help set themselves up for long-term future success or they can risk that for one playoff run.  Seems like a no-brainer to me.
The Nationals also have great pitching depth.  It would be one thing if you had no one to replace Strasburg, but the Nationals have plenty of other options.  Chien-Ming Wang is expected to recover soon from a hamstring injury and he will replace Ross Detweiler.  It is hard to put much faith in Wang, however, to call him injury prone would be an understatement.  He is a walking china-cabinet, but the Nationals still seem confident in his abilities.  If he gets injured again, Detweiler has shown thus far he can be a dependable starter.  The Nationals also have another option in John Lannan, who was sent to the minor leagues prior to the beginning of the season.  Lannan led the team in wins last season with 10 and carries with him a high salary so the Nationals would not hesitate to bring him back into the rotation if they needed to.  There is a chance he could be traded before he is brought up, but his demotion has thus far generated little interest from other teams.

Every player and every injury is unique so it is impossible to predict how Strasburg’s arm will hold up, but based on recent history, limiting innings is the best way to treat someone recovering from Tommy John.  Strasburg has adjusted his pitching style in order to lower his pitch count and his arm may in fact be 100% healthy.  His arm may stay strong no matter how many pitches he throws this season, but in truth we cannot know for sure.  There have been numerous pitchers who have seen their career’s shortened by injuries.  If this were to happen to Strasburg it would be a devastating blow to the organization.  Ace’s are hard to come by, and the Nationals have to do what they can to protect their investment.

Sunday, April 15, 2012

Caps Head Back to DC with Series Tied


Heading into the playoffs, there were a lot of question marks for the Capitals. Would the Caps be able to match Boston's physical play? Could the defense handle Boston's scoring depth? How did the Caps plan to beat Tim Thomas? Would Braden Holtby be able to handle the pressure of his first NHL playoff appearance? Well, heading back to DC, I'd say the Capitals so far have answered all of those questions and now have a chance to take the lead in a series most people gave them no shot of winning.

There is probably no bigger story so far in this series than the performance of Holtby in net. He has allowed only two goals in two overtime games against a Boston team that had the second best offense in the regular season and has a whopping .973 save percentage in the series. His unflappable demeanor was really on display yesterday when he turned in another impressive performance despite giving up the OT winner in game 1. A lot of goalies would have had trouble rebounding from that, but he looked just as cool and calm as always. He tends to give up too many rebounds and trusts too much in his stick, something that contributed to Boston's only goal Sunday, but otherwise I have been more than impressed by his performance. I knew he was good, but I did not think he was this good yet.

Boston has also been unable to take advantage of Holtby's rebounds because of how well the Caps have played defensively. They have been in great position to tap away those rebounds and shot block and it has clearly frustrated Boston's vaunted offense. They have not been pushed off the puck in their own zone, something I was concerned may happen, and they are getting an all out effort by everyone on the ice. Everyone is laying out to block shots, both Marcus Johansson and Jeff Schultz have taken pucks to the head. Even Alex Semin, a player long criticized for not always giving his best effort, contributed about four or five key defensive plays yesterday in OT. When players see someone like Semin going all out, it inspires the rest of the team. Even though he did not contribute to the score sheet yesterday, he was one of the best players on the ice.

The biggest thing the Caps need to improve on is their offense. The team only mustered 56 shots in both games, and that's including OT. There was some criticism of Alex Ovechkin, but I thought he has played well. Playing against the 6 ft 9 Zdeno Chara is a tough matchup, but he has created opportunities and matched him hit for hit. He even had an assist on Troy Brouwer's goal making a great pass to the front of the net. He needs to continue generating what he can and pushing the tempo. The other lines need to pick up the slack. I knew secondary scoring was going to be key, and as a result, Backstrom and Semin are playing on the second line away from Chara's shadow. So far, Backstrom has generated some chances and netted the OT winner yesterday, but the team will need more than 56 shots and a few chances from 8 and 19 to beat Boston.

Besides the offense, the Caps look to be in good shape. They've allowed only two goals despite playing the second best offense in the league and having a rookie goalie. They have matched Boston's physical play and tied up the series. Now, with two games down, three of the last five games are in DC. The Caps need to continue playing great defense to help Holtby, but the best thing they can do to help him is generate more offense. While the Caps have only allowed two, they have only scored two. For both games to come down to OT is putting a lot on Holtby's shoulders, despite how well he has played. Whoever can solve the other team's defense is going to be moving on to the next round.

Thursday, April 12, 2012

Caps Prepare to Meet the Bruins in Round One


The Capitals and Bruins square off tonight at 7:30 to open their playoff series. This year, the Caps are playing the unfamiliar role of the underdog and will have to start quickly in Boston to have a chance. Thanks to a strong finish, the Caps qualified for the playoffs in the 81st game and climbed into the 7th spot on the last day of the regular season. The unfortunate reality of being in the bottom of the conference, however, is that the Caps managed to avoid a matchup with the top team in the conference and instead will now face the defending champions. If the Boston of 2011 shows up for this series, the Caps may be facing yet another early playoff exit.



To start the season, Boston had the typical Stanley Cup hangover and struggled in the opening month. They quickly rebounded and became the best team in the league by December and, despite some late season consistency issues, they have remained near the top. Offensively the Bruins tend to share the wealth. Boston was the only team this season to have six players with 20 or more goals. With scorers on their top three lines, the Bruins have the luxury of being able to cycle through all of their lines without sacrificing offensive pressure. They will, however, be playing without Nathan Horton who is suffering from a concussion. He produced in key moments last season and the Bruins may struggle to find that clutch weapon in key moments. Defensively, the Bruins are led by their big man, Zdeno Chara. He is known for shutting down opponents’ star players and is expected to matchup with Alex Ovechkin.



The Bruins, however, will only go as far as goalie Tim Thomas will allow them to go. Boston’s Stanley Cup run last season I think can be credited more to Thomas’ heroics than to anything else, as is evidenced by his winning the Conn Smythe as playoff MVP. Though he is not having the Vezina winning season he had last year, there’s no doubt he’s capable of standing on his head come playoff time. The real question in net is what the Bruins do if Thomas is injured. Normally, Thomas is backed-up by the very stout Tukka Rask, but he is currently nursing a groin injury and will not be available at least initially. That means AHL call up Anton Khudobin will be Thomas’ back up. He won’t see any action unless Thomas goes down, but it’s something to be aware of.



Calling this a rollercoaster season for the Capitals would be an understatement. Despite a 7-0 start, the Caps soon looked mediocre and it spelled the end for the long embattled Bruce Boudreau. Caps’ legend Dale Hunter took over the team and the Caps stayed on the fringe of the playoffs throughout the season only qualifying in the final week. The biggest question mark heading into this series for this team is goaltending. Tomas Vokoun has a possible season ending groin injury that will, at the very least, keep him out of action for round one. Michal Neuvirth suffered a lower body injury late in the season and though he looks closer to returning, it is unlikely he will be ready to go by tonight. That means the pressure falls on the inexperienced shoulders of Braden Holtby. The 22 year old has very limited NHL experience and no playoff experience. Though he has looked good at times, he has also showed his inexperience especially during the 5-1 loss against Buffalo. This is not unfamiliar territory for the Caps, who started the inexperienced Semyon Varlamov three years ago and Neuvirth last season, but it was a situation the Caps thought they would be able to avoid with the signing of Vokoun. The good news is that Holtby always seems to have a calm demeanor and is unlikely to fall victim to the playoff pressure, but how he will play against the physical Bruins is anybody’s guess.



Defensively, the Caps may have struggled to find any sort of defensive consistency this season and they may have trouble matching up against Boston’s offensive depth. Karl Alzner and Dmitry Orlov have played well, but I’m not quite sure how well they will handle Boston’s physicality. Mike Green has struggled immensely since his return and has not provided the spark both Hunter and General Manager George McPhee were hoping for. Roman Hamrlik could be a key blue liner, but his age is a factor. How much left does he have in the tank? Even the team’s lone all star, Dennis Wideman, has a few question marks surrounding him as he tends to be outskated in the defensive zone. The Caps will need all five players on the ice to commit themselves to playing a smart, physical defensive strategy. They cannot allow themselves to be pushed off the puck in their own zone, but cannot allow the Bruins’ physical play to frustrate them and translate into penalties.



When it comes to scoring, most people believe the story begins and ends with Ovechkin. While he has not played up to his potential this season, he really picks things up come playoff time with 50 points in 37 playoff appearances. The problem is that Ovechkin can expect to play across from Chara all series long and Chara is known for shutting down superstar opponents. Hunter will have to rearrange his lines to spread out the scoring. Don’t be surprised to see Nicklas Backstrom playing second line instead of next to Ovechkin. Hunter can’t have Chara shut down both Ovie and Backstrom, so instead I would expect Backstrom to play second line with Alex Semin. Semin can’t give the team his yearly disappearing act. Besides the obvious superstars, the Caps are going to have to rely on players like Jay Beagle and Joel Ward to match some of Boston’s physicality. Towards the end of the season, Hunter began pitting Beagle against some team’s top lines and he was very effective at shutting them down. Matching will be difficult against Boston’s balanced attack, but his physicality will be no less important. As for Ward, he was signed after his playoff heroics last season and thus far he has not come close to living up to that contract. This is what he was brought in for and this is where he needs to really pick up his game.



Looking at this matchup, things don’t look great for the Caps. Despite beating Boston three out of four times this season, Boston knows how to pick up their game in the postseason. The Caps cannot allow themselves to be bogged down by Boston’s physicality. If they do, they will be stuck on their heels in their own zone. They have to transition up and out quickly and work their offense around Chara. Secondary scoring will be key since I’m not sure how much you can expect from Ovechkin. Boston will want to forecheck and keep offensive possession. Most of all, they will try to agitate. They will be merciless in the crease, knowing the Caps will be depending on a rookie netminder. If they can keep possession in the offensive zone, they will tire the Caps out while rolling through their balanced lines and generate goals and penalties.



This series will depend on games one and two. The Caps have always played well at home and are certainly skilled enough to win at Verizon, but this is a bad matchup for them and they cannot afford to go down early. The Caps MUST steal one in Boston. If they head to DC down 2-0, they will lose in five. If they can take one in Boston, they can definitely win at least one at home and anything can happen in a 2-2 series. They need at least one in Boston to have a chance or once again fans in DC will go home feeling the season ended far too early.

Monday, April 9, 2012

The Nationals Look to Make a Post Season Push


The flowers are blooming, the air is turning warmer, and the Redskins are making blockbuster trades. Yes, truly spring is in the air and with it comes a new baseball season. But, unlike in most seasons, Nationals fans can look at this season with a true sense of optimism thanks to the team GM Mike Rizzo has assembled.

The biggest improvement for this team is their rotation. For the past four seasons, John Lannan has been a regular starter and this year he is not even in the bullpen. What does that tell you about the strength of this lineup? Instead, Lannan was optioned to AAA thanks to the Nats' pitching upgrades. After a successful return at the end of last season, it was no surprise when manager Davey Johnson named Stephen Strasburg the team's ace. Scouts report that he has tweaked his technique in order to become a more efficient pitcher this year. We may not see him throw the heat as much, but if he can retire more batters with fewer pitches it will ease some of the fears people may have about his durability after Tommy John surgery. The team will also have Edwin Jackson and Gio Gonzalez, both of whom were traded for in the offseason. Add them to the mix with a healthy Strasburg and Jordan Zimmerman and the team boasts a surprisingly strong top 4. Chien-Ming Wang is expected back soon from yet another injury, so the Nationals' rotation will make them incredibly formidable. The pitching, however, doesn't stop there.

With the season only three games old, the Nationals have already called upon their bullpen for support and they have delivered. Tyler Clippard looks to build upon his all-star season and earned the win on opening day. The Nationals also acquired Brad Lidge in the offseason as their closer and he impressed early throwing his first save for the team in the opener. Ross Detweiler is right now the team's fifth starter, but he'll return to the bullpen once Wang is healthy. Pitching will not be a problem for this team.

Pitching, however, was not the real problem for them last year either. The Nationals hit only .242 last year and already they seem incapable of hitting anything in the first 7 innings. They have had to rely on late comebacks in order to keep things close. They really did not upgrade their offense in the offseason at all. Prospect Bryce Harper carries a large bat with him, and while most scouts believe he will be called up at some point this season, we're still probably a few months away from that happening. Still, the Nationals played without the help of Adam LaRoche for much of last season and so far we have seen the kind of impact he can have on this team. In the team's second game, LaRoche went 4 for 5 with 2 RBIs and a home run and he followed that up with another home run the next day. If he can remain healthy and keep playing at this level, he can give the Nationals some desperately needed hits. Ryan Zimmerman looks to rebound from an injury riddled year as well. And don't forget about John Lannan. No, he's not likely to get a call up for his batting skills, but Rizzo's reluctance to trade him after he was optioned may end up helping the team out down the line. Lannan comes with a high price tag that is keeping him here for the moment, but as the season progresses and injuries mount or teams find out their pitching isn't as strong as they perhaps thought, GMs will come calling. Don't be surprised if the Nationals pick up a bat in exchange for Lannan.

Last year the Nationals went 80-81 even with key injuries to Adam LaRoche, Stephen Strasburg, and Ryan Zimmerman. The team managed to avoid a collapse after the drama of Jim Riggleman's hasty exit and now look poised to finish with their first winning record in DC. And with the added wild card spot, it's not outlandish to think the Nationals could challenge for the playoffs this season. There's finally reason for some optimism for Nationals' fans this spring.

Monday, April 2, 2012

Ted's General Managers

With the regular season winding down for both the NBA and NHL, it's safe to say both the Wizards and Capitals have not been as successful as owner Ted Leonsis would have hoped.  The Capitals are still in playoff contention, but they have not performed up to expectations.  Both teams are in need of change, but both have already fired their coaches during the season and now fans are beginning to point their fingers squarely at the general managers.  Leonsis has shown patience with his front office personnel, but is it time for a GM change?

To say that Ernie Grunfeld, current GM of the Wizards, had some massive shoes to fill is an understatement.  Grunfeld was brought in to replace Michael Jordan as president of basketball operations and general manager in 2003.  The team seemed to flourish initially under Grunfeld, however, winning its first playoff series in more than 23 years in the 2004-05 season.  The teamsreturned to the playoffs for 3 straight seasons after that losing each time in the first round to Lebron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers.  Things fell apart when team star Gilbert Arenas began to suffer multiple injuries that consistently kept him out of the lineup.  In 2009, Arenas brought handguns into the locker room in what has become a well chronicled incident.  Since that time, the Wizards have been a national punchline.  While Grunfeld certainly cannot be blamed for Arenas' inexplicable behavior, he has developed a knack for bringing in "knuckle heads."  After Arenas came Andray Blatche in 2005, Nick Young in 2007, and JaVale McGee in 2008, all drafted by Grunfeld and all contributing embarrassing headlines and highlights again and again.

What is more troubling is that the Wiz seem almost no closer to digging themselves out of the hole they have been stuck in since 2009.  In 2010, the Wizards had the 5th pick in the draft.  Grunfeld traded it to Minnesota for Randy Foye and Mike Miller.  At the time, the draft seemed weak at that point so moving the pick seemed a smart move, but the Wizards received Randy Foye and Mike Miller.  Both players had only a year left on their contracts and both left immediately after the 2009-2010 season.  Just one year later the Wizards had nothing to show for a top 5 pick.  In September of 2010, Grunfeld awarded Blatche a 5 year $35 million contract extension that has made the team headache all but untradeable.  Instead of earning that contract, Blatche is out of the lineup at the moment because he is out of shape.  To his credit, Grunfeld knows when he's made a mistake.  Arenas, McGee, and Young are now all someone else's problem and he at least sought to trade Blatche, but this team is still terrible.  The Wizards are currently 12-40 giving them the 2nd worst winning percentage in the league.  John Wall is a great draft pick with superstar potential, but we can't expect him to stick around forever waiting for the team to get its act together.  How long can the Wizards be basement dwellers before Grunfeld is held accountable?

George McPhee, general manager of the Washington Capitals, has had a very different problem; he has been unable to take a team loaded with talent to the next level.  This hasn't always been a problem, in his first season with Washington, the Caps made it to their first and only Stanley Cup Finals.  As the team faced financial issues with a league lockout looming, McPhee orchestrated a "fire sale" in the 2003-04 season unloading the team's veteran talent in exchange for young prospects and draft picks.  The team turned around when they obtained Alexander Ovechkin and have since won four division championships.  Despite being widely described as one of the most talented teams in the league, the Caps have failed to make it past the 2nd round of the playoffs since their conference run in 1998.

Many blamed the team's playoff woes on coach Bruce Boudreau, but the team has continued to struggle after Boudreau was fired in November.  While Dale Hunter's coaching has left much to be desired to say the least, some would say it may be time to find a new GM before we start to think about another new coach.

So are Ted's GMs in trouble?  Well, probably not.  As I said, Leonsis has been incredibly patient with his staff.  In a town haunted by the shadow of trigger happy Daniel Snyder, I believe Leonsis enjoys being the patient counterpart.  The rebuild of the stagnant Capitals' franchise is a remarkable story and Leonsis hopes to rebuild the Wizards along the same lines.  While the Caps have struggled in the playoffs, McPhee has consistenly put together a roster that looks remarkably talented on paper.  The problems are on the ice, not in the office.  Of course he has made his share of mistakes, but you can't really ask for much more from McPhee.  His job is to put together championship calibur rosters and he's done that.  For Grunfeld, the future is a bit more murky.  This is the last year of his contract and frankly you can only blame Arenas for so long.  If Leonsis feels there's a plan in place, then he may not want to upset that by bringing in a new GM, but I'm having a hard time figuring out what that plan is.  You can't just keep pushing the reset button forever.