Monday, December 24, 2012

Redskins Set to Meet Cowboys in Division Championship Matchup

The Redskins will wrap up the regular season next week with a game at home against the arch-rival Dallas Cowboys in a winner-take-all matchup for the NFC East division. It will be the first time the Redskins have ever hosted a head-to-head matchup to determine the division championship in the regular season finale. The loser could be out of the playoffs all together. Oh, and the game has been flexed to prime time.

Are the stakes high enough yet?

Perhaps the most storied rivalry in the NFL will add yet another momentous chapter next week as the two teams meet with the division on the line. The Redskins can turn the page on their recent ineptitude and the Cowboys can end the dream season of rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III, someone who is sure to be a thorn in their side for many years to come. After the beat-down Griffin subjected them to in Jerry World on Thanksgiving, the Cowboys would love nothing more than to ruin Griffin’s Christmas.

Still, regardless of what happens, one must not forget the hill the Redskins had to climb just to get to this point.

Just seven short weeks ago, the Redskins lost 21-13 to the lowly Carolina Panthers. It was the lowest point of the season. The team was playing terribly and Mike Shanahan was talking about evaluating the team for next year. Another season seemed lost.

Were the Redskins mathematically eliminated from the playoffs at 3-6? No, but I mean, they would have to pretty much win every game left on their schedule to have a realistic chance….

Only four other teams in the NFL have won 6 or more straight games this season, and all four of those teams have already punched their tickets to the playoffs. The last time the Redskins won six straight was in 1996 when Norv Turner was the coach. It is not an easy thing to do. Yet, it might not be good enough should the Redskins lose the finale.

As the game has been moved to prime time, the Redskins will know exactly what they are facing by kick off. If Minnesota or Chicago wins next week, then the Redskins will be eliminated with a loss to Dallas.

The Redskins, however, will not concern themselves with all the various scenarios. For them, it’s very simple: win and you’re in.

Dallas too has turned their season around after some early struggles. They began the season 3-5 and many wondered if head coach Jason Garrett’s days were numbered. Since then, they have won five of their last seven including two overtime wins. The Cowboys will not be a pushover.

The way this season has gone, I’m sure the Redskins wouldn’t have it any other way.

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Friday, December 21, 2012

Wizards Walk Away from Deal for Harden

There was a sense of cautious optimism surrounding the Wizards heading into the 2012-13 season.  After a 3-20 start, however, expectations have lowered considerably.  John Wall has yet to play and the roster has been exposed without him.

Do you think James Harden could have helped?

Last week, it was leaked by several anonymous sources that the Wizards passed up a deal for James Harden in the offseason.  Sources vary on what Oklahoma City was asking for with some reports saying it would have taken Bradley Beal and Chris Singleton and others saying the Thunder wanted an established player as part of the deal.  The Wizards, however, walked away.

What was the issue?  Money.  The sources again vary on the specifics.  The Washington Post reported that the Wizards would have been subject to the luxury tax with the addition of Harden’s contract.  Other outlets reported that owner Ted Leonsis did not want to commit $80 million to Harden.  Leonsis has come out and denied both reports.

I am always hesitant to argue that an owner is not committed to building a winning franchise, but this looks really bad. Owners are usually successful businessmen who are savvy enough to understand that winning teams put people in seats.  There are always exceptions to the rule and I know there are dysfunctional franchises with terrible owners out there, but I have a hard time believing this is one of those cases.

Leonsis rebuilt the Capitals from one of the least profitable organizations to one of the most popular teams in the NHL.  He did it by giving out big contracts to star players, but the team went through a lengthy rebuilding process to get there.  I am sure the blueprint for the Wizards is probably pretty similar.

The problem is that the NBA is a different animal than the NHL.  The NBA is the most star driven sports league in America.  When you have the chance to bring one in at a relatively cheap price, you have to pull the trigger, especially when have no other way of attracting stars to come to the team.

Right now, there is no reason for a star player to sign in DC.  The team is terrible and DC is not really considered a “basketball” town.  When a star has a chance to sign with Miami, Boston, the Lakers, or Washington, in most cases the Wizards are going to be on the bottom of that list.

How do teams like Oklahoma City grow into a powerhouse?  They draft a star to build around.  Once that player establishes himself, it becomes easier to entice other players to sign with you.  No doubt that was the team’s plan with Wall which makes the timing of his injury potentially devastating.  The third year is often a make or break year for young talent.  If Wall is truly a budding young star, he needed to have a breakout year.

Would a free agent be more excited about playing with Wall or Kyrie Irving?  Wall is hoping his injury won’t keep him out for the entire season, Irving is playing like a superstar.  Out of sight, out of mind.

The Wizards have not done nearly enough to give hope to the fan base since Leonsis took over.  They got rid of the morons, drafted Wall, and traded for Nene.  That’s about it.  With people already questioning if Leonsis is committed to building the Wizards into a winning franchise, a report saying he turned his back on a player like Harden because he was too expensive just adds fuel to the fire.  The Wizards brought in Emeka Okafor and Trevor Ariza, but Harden is where you draw the line?

There’s no guarantee Harden would be playing as well in DC as he is in Houston and even then Houston is only seventh in the West.  Still, the Wizards look absolutely pathetic.  Harden would have given fans something to watch while waiting for Wall.  Now, the Wizards have nothing to draw the fans.  A $50 ticket to watch Jan Vessely and Jordan Crawford is a tough sell.  Even when Wall does come back, he certainly won’t be able to save the season.  It’s not even Christmas yet, but the season already feels lost.

Of course all of this is easy for me to say, it’s not my $80 million. After years of turmoil and pathetic seasons, however, you have to prove to your fan base that you are committed to making the team better.  When you pass up an opportunity to bring in Harden because he would cost too much, it sends the wrong message to fans and potential free agents.  If bringing in players like Harden isn’t part of the plan, maybe it’s time to make a new plan.

Monday, December 17, 2012

Redskins’ Short-term and Long-term Gamble Pays Off

The Redskins raised more than a few eyebrows last April when in the fourth round the team drafted Michigan State quarterback, Kirk Cousins.  They had drafted Robert Griffin III as the second overall pick to be their franchise QB.   Why waste the pick on another rookie QB?

Fast-forward to week 14.   The Redskins trailed the Ravens by eight with a chance for the division title perhaps on the line.  Suddenly, as Griffin scrambled away from pressure, Haloti Ngata hit him so hard that he seemingly separated Griffin’s body from his knee.  Fans held their collective breath as Griffin hobbled down the field, trying to keep the drive and perhaps the season alive.

It soon became clear he would not be able to finish out the game.  Enter Kirk Cousins.

Cousins came in cold, but went 2 for 2 and hit Pierre Garcon in the end zone for a touchdown.  He capped it all off with a two-yard draw for the game tying two-point conversion.  The Redskins had tied it up and forced overtime where Kai Forbath sealed the 31-28 win.

On Saturday, after a week of watching and waiting, the Redskins announced that Cousins would start against the Brows.  After a very slow start and an interception that led to Cleveland’s first touchdown, Cousins strung together an efficient, very impressive game.  He completed 26 of 37 passes for 329 yards and two touchdowns as the Redskins defeated the Browns 38-21.

He did it under immense pressure both on and off the field.  It’s hard to step in for a new hero.  Cleveland’s defense also came in with an aggressive game plan.  With no Griffin, they decided they were going to blitz early and often.  He took some shots, but he got the job done.

While drafting Cousins may have seemed odd, it did make a certain amount of sense. In the later rounds, NFL teams make picks based on value rather than just on need alone.  When a second round caliber QB drops to the fourth round you have an opportunity to steal a real playmaker.  It does not always work out that way, but every draft pick comes with a certain amount of risk.

It’s not about a lack of confidence in Griffin, it’s about having a better backup option than Rex Grossman and having a very valuable trade asset in the future.

It was definitely a gamble.  The Redskins have been dressing only two rookie QBs all season.  There was no guarantee Cousins would be up to the task if Griffin ever went down.  With Grossman inactive most weeks, there would be no one else to turn to if Cousins could not handle the NFL level.  The gamble, however, appears to have paid off.

While Cousins is no Griffin, he has shown that he can be more than just a dependable backup.  We would all like to see Griffin come back as soon as possible, but there is no reason to rush him.  Now, he has another full week to heal and if his knee still is not better by next week, playing Cousins feels like much less of a risk than he did only a few days ago.

The backup QB is an often overlooked position, but every team is always one play away from needing one.  Cousins has shown why it is important to have someone dependable on your depth chart behind the starter.  As a rookie, his ceiling is still high which means his value is as well.  In his one game and two brief appearances, he already looks better than any QB on Arizona or the Jets’ roster.  Cousins’ payoff will not just be on the field.  Expect to see some offers in the offseason.  Teams will pay a lot for what they see as a possible franchise QB.   As the Redskins have few draft picks and are up against a cap penalty, it will be worth listening to what other teams have to offer.

Every QB has bad games and Cousins will be no exception.  When the Redskins needed him, however, he stepped up and got the big win.  Should they need him again, Shanahan no doubt will name him starter with more confidence then perhaps he had last week.

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Monday, December 10, 2012

College Football Season Capped off by Ridiculous Postseason Format

The college football season will be settled yet again by an arbitrary matchup between two teams we are pretty sure deserve to be there.  While a four-team playoff is on the way in 2014, many of the problems that plague college football’s postseason will remain.

In 1992, the BCS was created out of necessity to pit two teams together in a national championship game.  Since teams and conferences had bowl affiliations, the two best teams would rarely play one another to end the season.  As a result, it was difficult to determine an overall national champion.

The new system was an upgrade, but as we have seen nearly every single year this two-team system remains far too exclusive.  This year, Alabama will play Notre Dame in the National Championship Game.  Alabama is one of five teams in the BCS top 25 with one loss.  Alabama may seem to most people as the best one-loss team, but in reality there is very little that separates them from the others.

What’s worse is that there could have been multiple undefeated teams at the end of the season.  If Notre Dame, Alabama, Kansas State, and Oregon had all gone undefeated, two of those four would have been excluded.  This nightmare scenario happened in the 2004-05 season.  Southern California, Oklahoma, and Auburn were all undefeated.  With nothing to separate the three and with a two-team system, Auburn was somehow excluded.  Just as a quick aside, can you imagine an SEC team going undefeated today and NOT getting a place in the National Championship game?

Somehow, the BCS managed to survive until last season when enough was enough and it was announced the format for the national championship will change into a four-team playoff.  While this is progress, it still does not go far enough.

I know it sounds like I am beating a dead horse by tearing apart a system that has been universally panned, but that’s not the point.  The purpose of this article is not to point out the obvious flaws that have already been discussed ad nauseam, but instead to highlight the fact that instituting a four-team playoff is like putting a band-aid on a broken arm.

Let’s take the top four teams in the BCS standings this year as a hypothetical playoff.  This would give us Notre Dame, Alabama, Florida, and Oregon.  One could argue that all four teams are deserving of a title shot.  This would, however, also exclude one loss Kansas State who I would argue is no less deserving.  You are left with the exact same problem of a two-team system: it still excludes teams just as deserving of a title shot as those selected.

But wait, doesn’t college basketball have the same problem?  Every year experts debate over the most deserving teams and some are inevitably left out of March Madness.  Won’t any system have the exclusion problem no matter how big?  While this is true, the difference is that the 69th best basketball team in the nation cannot reasonably argue that they are legitimate national championship contenders.  The lowest seed to ever win March Madness was an eight when Villanova won in 1985.  There is a huge difference between leaving out the 69th best team and the fifth.

Still, the powers that be drag their feet on a full-blown playoff system.  Most people want to see either eight or 16 teams battle it out, but the fans are given the most ridiculous arguments for why this won’t happen.

Since the football season ends at the end of November/beginning of December, a playoff system could potentially interfere with then end of the college semester.  Well, the FCS (formerly I-AA football) has been using a playoff system of eight teams or more since 1981.  Somehow not every FCS football player has dropped out of school.  I promise you the football schedule could be adjusted to accommodate academics.

Another argument is that playoffs would either end the bowl system or diminish their importance.  This is untrue for two reasons.  First, the bowls could be incorporated into a playoff system.  For example, the four current BCS bowls could be converted into quarterfinal games.  Whatever bowls are not incorporated could be played by teams not in the playoffs.  The NCAA could make it work.

Secondly, a playoff system would not diminish bowl games any more than sponsors already have.  Do you think players can say with pride that they are playing in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl?  Or how about the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl?  When I see bowls like the Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl, it seems pretty evident that people stopped caring about the prestige of the bowl system a long time ago.  Adding a playoff system really won’t hurt, unless of course you’re a big fan of the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl (my personal favorite).

Perhaps the most compelling and only real argument there is against the playoff system is that it could diminish the regular season.  I admit, the regular season of college football is the most important of pretty much any sport.  Every game turns into a pseudo “playoff” game for national title hopefuls.  A single loss can end the dream of raising the crystal trophy.

The problem, however, is that the big teams know their season hangs in the balance every week and so they schedule patsies they can beat up on while preparing for conference opponents.  Here are some of the matchups we were given in week 12 of this season: Alabama vs. Western Carolina, Florida vs. Jacksonville State, South Carolina vs. Wofford, Georgia vs. Georgia Southern, Auburn vs. Alabama A&M, Texas A&M vs. Sam Houston State, and Kentucky vs. Samford.  Even the most casual of college football fans can see these are pretty lackluster games.   Almost the entire SEC decided to take the weekend off and THIS is the regular season we have to protect?

With all due respect to the FCS, people are not glued to the TV when the best conference in the nation decides to hold a series of scrimmages in the middle of the season.  The nonconference schedule for many teams is becoming a joke because the margin for error is so small.  I personally would rather see postseason games against the best teams in the country instead of Alabama’s backups blowout Western Carolina midseason.

Don’t despair though, a larger playoff format is not far behind.  The fact is that college football is dominated by money.  If you don’t believe me, go back and re-read the names of the bowls I listed.  It won’t take long for people to realize that more playoff games between the best teams in the nation will mean more money.  It’s a simple equation.  What’s not so simple, however, is determining a fair system that can finally include all the true national title contenders while keeping all the decision-makers happy, but that’s an argument for another day.

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Sunday, December 2, 2012

Nationals Bring in Span, Still have Decisions to Make

The Nationals made their first big move in the offseason, addressing their need for a leadoff hitter.

The team announced Thursday that they had traded pitching prospect Alex Meyer to Minnesota in exchange for center fielder Denard Span.  With a .284 batting average and a .357 on-base percentage, Span looks to be the leadoff hitter the Nationals sorely needed.

Not only did the Nationals add a key piece to their lineup, they also gained some flexibility regarding Adam LaRoche and Michael Morse.  Heading into the offseason, it seemed unlikely the Nationals would keep both.  Now it's all but certain.

LaRoche is coming off arguably the best season of his career, with 33 home runs and 100 RBIs.  He won both a Golden Glove and a Silver Slugger and was undoubtedly the team MVP in 2012.

The problem is that he is a free agent.  While he has expressed interest in returning to Washington, he also has reportedly asked for a three-year deal.  At 33 years old, the Nationals are reluctant to lock him up for so long at what will undoubtedly be a hefty price tag.

Morse, on the other hand, is still under contract and younger at 30.  Injuries, however, are a major concern as they have hindered the power-hitter for much of his career.

If the Nationals don’t re-sign LaRoche, Morse would move to first base, but the Nationals would be taking a huge risk with Morse’s durability.  They would also be losing LaRoche for nothing.  Trading Morse will at least get them something in return.

The Nationals put together a winning roster in 2012 and I would be reluctant to let the biggest reason for that, the team MVP, walk away for nothing.  Yes, you take the risk of his numbers declining because of his age, but no more of a risk than you take with Morse's health.

The Nationals also find themselves in need of a starting pitcher this offseason.  The biggest name available is of course Zack Grienke, but I would be shocked if the Nationals had any serious interest in him.

Grienke would reportedly cost around $100 million.  With Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez already in the rotation, Grienke would be third at the very least, maybe even fourth behind Jordan Zimmermann.  Don’t hold your breath for this blockbuster signing in DC.

In addition to a starter, the Nationals will also look for a left-handed reliever.  With the decision to non-tender Tom Gorzelanny, the Nationals have no left-handed relievers on the roster.  They could re-sign Sean Burnett or Michael Gonzalez, but I would not be surprised to see them bring in a new name as well.

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