Much Improved Wizards Team Hopes to Take Next Step

The Wizards sent a message at the end of last season; they were ready to turn the page on this embarrassing chapter in their history.  They were tired of the losing and of the embarrassing headlines off the court.

Head coach Flip Saunders was fired midway through the season, resident knuckleheads JaVale McGee and Nick Young were traded away for Nene and Brian Cook, and Andray Blatche was sent packing.  The moves had immediate results as the Wizards finished the 2011-2012 winning six straight and eight of their last ten.

The question, of course, is whether that success will continue this season.  The Wizards continued to improve in the offseason by trading the oft-injured and very expensive Rashard Lewis for Emeka Okafor and Trevor Ariza.  They also drafted the talented perimeter shooter Bradley Beal.

Looking at this new roster, there’s no doubt that it is a much improved squad.  McGee and Young were both talented, but the lack of leadership or discipline on this young team made DC a bad fit for them.  Nene gave this team instant leadership and, paired with Okafor, the Wizards suddenly look very strong in the paint.

Offensively, however, this team may struggle.  Beal looks to be a year away from being a top threat.  While he looked great in the Summer League, he has struggled in the preseason including a zero point performance in the finale against San Antonio.

Ariza, playing on his third team in four years, has also struggled in the preseason.  He is playing for his third team in four seasons, so perhaps some growing pains are to be expected, but the Wizards were expecting him to start and be a top offensive threat for them.  The fact that he is still struggling to produce is troubling.

The biggest problem facing the team right now is injuries.  John Wall needed to continue to prove himself to be a star this season, but he will sit the first month with a stress injury to his left knee.  Nene continues to struggle with plantar fasciitis in his left foot making his return to the team uncertain.  Kevin Seraphin, Chris Singleton, Trevor Booker, and Okafor have all missed games in the preseason because of an illness or injury.  It doesn’t matter what kind of roster the Wizards have assembled, if they can’t stay healthy they will struggle to find any success.

Still, it’s hard to argue against he moves the Wizards have made and the roster is undeniably more formidable now than it has been in several years.  Defense will be the key as this team continues to find its offensive identity.  Perimeter shooting will still be an issue, but there’s plenty to like about where this team is going.  If they can get healthy, they could potentially compete for one of the last playoff spots.  That might not sound like a glamorous outlook, but after four straight lottery years an eighth place finish sounds pretty good to me and probably sounds good to the Wizards as well.

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NHL Cancels More Games, Season Suddenly in Jeopardy

As the NHL locked its doors for the second time in eight years, the feeling among most experts was not whether we would have hockey, but when.  This might be the fourth work stoppage in 20 years, but with the lost 2004-05 season still fresh in everyone’s minds, both sides knew they had to come to a quick agreement for the good of the game.  Right?

 

Apparently not.  The NHL announced today that it has cancelled all regular season games through November 30^th.  There is also some speculation that the Winter Classic could be cancelled as early as Monday.  For the first time during the lockout, the season seems to be in real jeopardy.

 

From the beginning, this lockout seemed to be a gross miscalculation by the NHL.  Granted, players rarely “win” in these scenarios, but the NHLPA had more leverage than commissioner Gary Bettman initially acknowledged.

 

The players received escrow payments in October worth 8% of last season’s salary.  Many lockouts end quickly as the sting of the first missed paycheck begins to sink in for the players.  That was not going to happen this year.  Also, unlike in 2004, the NHL now has the Winter Classic to protect.  If the players could hold out until November, then they could use the Winter Classic as a major bargaining chip against the league.

 

Last week, the NHL offered a new proposal to the NHLPA which they posted in full on their website.  It offered the players a 50/50 revenue split and a chance for a full 82 game season.  The NHLPA responded with three counter proposals that the league immediately rejected.

 

While the NHL could have considered the proposals more thoroughly, the players used some pretty creative math that really did not come close to what the owners were asking.  Now the NHLPA has miscalculated.  They may have approached last week’s talks with an eye still on the Winter Classic, but the offer was about as good as it was going to get.  That’s not to say the players could not have negotiated further, but to offer three proposals that were way off the mark cost them an 82-game season.

 

If the league does cancel the Winter Classic as it is threatening, it is not as if the players could come back and accept the previous offer.  It is off the table.  Once the Winter Classic is cancelled, the players lose all of their leverage.  The owners will have no incentive to save the season and the players will end up with a much worse deal than the one the owners offered last week.

 

Of course, the Winter Classic has not yet been cancelled and all the speculation around its cancellation is just that, speculation.  The NHL could be spreading the rumor in an attempt to bring the players back to the table, but the players cannot afford to call their bluff.  There is still time for a deal to get done to save the season.  Now that negotiations have broken down and both sides engage in finger pointing, the outlook suddenly looks very bleak.

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National's Dream Season Has Nightmare Ending

The Nationals were one strike away from their first every playoff series win.  One more strike would send them to the NLCS.  Then it all came crashing down.

Washington fans were dealt another heartbreak last Friday as they witnessed one of the most spectacular collapses in sports history.  Up 6-0 in a series-clinching game five, the Nationals fell 9-7 after four allowed runs in the ninth inning.

The inevitable question being asked of course is if the Nationals could have won this series with Stephen Strasburg.  Strasburg would have pitched games one and five as the team’s ace.  Surely in a series that came down to game five, two games from Strasburg could have given the Nationals that one extra win?

I will say the same thing I said when Strasburg was shut down: we will never know.  All you pro-Strasburg critics do not have a crystal ball and have no idea how Strasburg would have pitched if given the chance.  Starting pitching was a major problem this series.  In two games, Gio Gonzalez walked 11 batters and gave up 5 runs.  Jordan Zimmermann allowed five runs and lasted only three innings in his one start.  Edwin Jackson, the only starter with postseason experience, lasted five innings while giving up five runs.  In fact, the only starter who did pitch well was the one who replaced Strasburg, Ross Detwiler.  While some would argue that adding Strasburg would have helped a rotation that struggled so much this series, there’s no guarantee he would not have struggled too.

Even if they had, it would not have mattered.  The Cardinals have been in pressure situations before.  After Friday’s win, the Cardinals have won six straight elimination games.  The Nationals, meanwhile, came into this series young and inexperienced.  If the Nationals learn one thing from this experience, it should be this: experience matters.

In June, the Nationals were one of the hottest teams in baseball.  The young team rode a six game winning streak into a series against the Yankees.  The series was the closest thing to a playoff atmosphere most of the players had experienced.  The Nationals were hot and the Yankees were the Yankees.  The national media and sold out crowds flocked to DC in anticipation.

The result?  The Nationals were swept.  Only one game was close, a marathon game that went 14 innings before the Yankees pulled away.  At that point it became clear; the Nationals were not yet ready for the playoffs.  They were not ready for that type of attention and pressure.

The Cardinals seemed like a good matchup when comparing rosters, but you cannot discount experience.  It takes a mentally strong team to battle back from a 6-0 deficit in the playoffs and an inexperienced one to lose it.

Heads up though, the future is bright in DC.  This team has a young core that will continue to grow and that Mike Rizzo can continue to build around.  Next season Strasburg will have no limitations, the team will have more experience, and the majority of the 98-game winning roster will return.  This one may hurt, but there are good times ahead for the Nationals.

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Should RG3 Play this Sunday?

Last Sunday, all of DC collectively held its breath as Robert Griffin III struggled to get up after a crushing hit to the head.  He managed to stagger to his feet, but he was soon taken to the locker room where he was diagnosed with a mild concussion.

The question on everyone’s mind this week has been whether Griffin would be ok to play Sunday against the Vikings.  Griffin has practiced all week and has not exhibited any concussion symptoms.  He has passed every test administered by doctors and, barring any setback between now and Sunday, it appears he will be able to play.

But should he?  There seems to be little discussion among the Redskins’ coaches or the fans in DC.  Why would you sit the most exciting player to play for the Redskins in at least 20 years?  Nationally, however, many are asking why the Redskins would risk it (as a quick aside, I find it ironic that the Nationals were skewered for even considering shutting down Stephen Strasburg, but now everyone thinks Griffin should sit.  Granted the Redskins are not playoff bound and we are only talking about one week, but I still find it ironic).  Concussions are very tricky.  They affect everyone differently and are very hard to predict.  The severity of concussions and their symptoms may worsen with successive injuries, even if a subsequent injury occurs months or years after the initial one.  Griffin suffered a concussion last year at Baylor and now five games into his NFL career he has already suffered another.  If he is concussion prone it is likely that each one will be more difficult to recover from and recovery from severe concussions can take up to several months (see Nicklas Backstrom).

The Redskins are not headed to the playoffs.  Let’s be real.  They’re 2-3 right now, and their schedule is going to get increasingly more difficult.  They are not the terrible team they have been over the past few years, but they still are not a playoff team.   What do they gain, therefore, by playing Griffin only a week after his concussion?

I’m not a doctor so I’m not saying definitively whether Griffin should sit or play, but while most people are asking if Griffin can play Sunday, there’s a more important question that needs to be asked: will Griffin be less likely to suffer a concussion if he does not play this week?  Obviously he won’t be concussed if he doesn’t play, but barring that, would there be any benefit to his health if he were to sit?  The Redskins should not just be concerned with whether Griffin passes the concussion tests, they should be thinking about how to prevent him from getting his next one.

Even if he does play, there are things the Redskins can do to better protect their quarterback.  Kyle Shanahan has come out and said Griffin’s injury will not affect his play-calling, but that’s probably just him posturing.  The Redskins have to be smarter offensively and they have already altered their calls accordingly.  In the first four games, Griffin averaged over 10 rushing attempts per game.  He had only one against Atlanta.  If teams think the playbook is wide open, however, they will have to prepare for it, explaining Kyle’s seemingly hard-line stance.

Griffin will also have to slide better.  He has taken more than a few shots this season that perhaps he did not have to take.  He has worked on sliding in practice this week, so hopefully we will see more of it as the season continues.

Ultimately, it all comes down to what the doctors say.  Concussions have become a major issue for the NFL so it is not as if he will be allowed to play before he is ready.  The issue is whether some “Strasburg” like precaution would benefit Griffin.  Even if he passes the concussion tests, will he benefit from sitting out this week?  If the doctors say he is completely fine and that another week won’t help him, then by all means let him play.  If there is any possibility, however, that it could help prevent another concussion.  You have to sit him.  Is the chance to go 3-3 worth risking your franchise QB?  Not to me.

Nationals Win First Ever Playoff Game, Take Control of Series

Throughout the regular season, the Nationals compiled the best record in the MLB because of the combined effort of their star players and supporting cast.  Whenever the stars struggled, there was always someone there to step-up.  It was no different Sunday as the Nationals took their first ever playoff game thanks to Tyler Moore and the bullpen.

With the shutdown of Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez was the clear ace.  Davey Johnson hoped for a strong outing from the starter to relieve the pressure off his inexperienced lineup, but Gio struggled to control his pitches.  In five innings, Gio allowed only one run, but gave up seven walks and a wild pitch that brought in the first run.  He settled down, but it was not the effort we have grown used to seeing this year.

The bullpen stepped up and held the Cardinals scoreless through the remaining four innings.  Craig Stammen came in to relieve Gio, followed by Ryan Mattheus who needed only two pitches to bail the Nationals out of a jam in the seventh.  The Cardinals loaded the bases with no outs thanks to an error by Adam LaRoche, a single, and Matt Holliday being hit by a pitch.  The Cardinals grounded into a force out at home, then grounded into a double play on the next pitch.  Tyler Clippard held the Cardinals at bay and Drew Storen came on in the ninth for the save.

While the bullpen bailed out a lackluster performance from Gio, it was Tyler Moore who stepped in to give the offense they needed.  Down 2-1 in the top of the eighth with runners on second and third, Johnson sent up Chad Tracy.  When the Cardinals responded with a call to the bullpen for lefty March Rzepcynski, Johnson rolled the dice and sent in Moore instead.  The gamble paid off.  Moore singled to right bringing in both runners and the Nationals took a 3-2 lead.

Taking the first in a series is always important, but for the Nationals it may well prove pivotal. It is important to start off on the right foot against the defending champions on their own field, especially with how inexperienced the Nationals are.  Now the first win is in the books, the jitters are gone; the players can get back into the rhythm of playing baseball.  Plus, with the ridiculous playoff format that awards the lower-seeded team the first two home games, it is crucial to steal one on the road.  Now, the Nationals need two wins in the remaining four games, and three of those four are in DC.

Lets not get carried away here.  This was only one win.  The Nationals still need two more and the Cardinals have won five straight games when facing elimination.  The defending champion are not a team that panics.  Still, it says a lot when a team as young as the Nationals can come back to win a game like this.  It is the ugly, unconventional games that prove the character of a team and the Nationals just passed a big test in St. Louis.

It was close, it was unconventional, and sometimes ugly, but the Nationals have their first ever playoff win and that’s all that matters.

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A Quarter into the Season, a Clearer Picture of the Redskins Emerging

Four games down in the NFL season and we have already learned a lot about who the 2012 Redskins are.  Most of the preseason questions have been answered and replaced by other questions.  Here’s a look at what we’ve learned so far:  Can Robert Griffin III live up to expectations?  Yes, he’s everything we thought and more.  Is the offensive line as bad as we thought?  No, it’s worse.  Will someone emerge as the top running back in a crowded backfield?  Yes, and it was Alfred Morris of all people.  Can the defense pick up where they left off last year?  Nope.

The offense has completely transformed from a year ago.  Led by Rex Grossman and John Beck, the Redskins were almost unwatchable.  Finally faced with the realization that the Redskins would never turn things around without a franchise quarterback, Mike Shanahan went all-in and traded for an opportunity to draft the highly-touted Griffin.  So far so good.  Griffin has a 69.4% completion percentage and a QB rating of 103.2.  He’s thrown for four TDs, rushed for four, and thrown only one interception.  He’s not only padding his own stats, he’s made the entire offense better.  The Redskins are third in the NFL in yards per game and fourth in points per games.  The offense never put up more than 30 points all of last season.  Griffin led the offense to 40 points in his first game.  It seemed impossible for Griffin to live up to expectations, but he’s managed to do just that.

Last season, the defense had to carry the theam.  This year it’s the defense that’s lacking, specifically the pass defense which ranks 31^st in the league.  Only Tampa Bay has played worse thus far.  As good as the offense has been, it’s hard to win when your team is giving up 30.8 points per game.  While the offense looks capable of putting up points all season long, the Redskins will continually struggle to put teams away.  Against Tampa Bay, the Redskins jumped out to a 21-3 lead, but they needed a field goal with seven seconds left to win the game 24-22.  They look absolutely terrible and things are only going to get harder.  Defensive coordinator Jim Haslett needs to fix things in a hurry.

The Redskins sit at 2-2 right now, but things may quickly turn ugly.  With Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and all six division games still on the schedule, the Redskins will struggle to keep their heads above water.  Even so, that’s ok.  The real goal of this season was to introduce Griffin to the NFL and show the Redskins were on the right track.  The problem won’t be how they perform this season, but next season. With few draft picks at their disposal and a cap penalty that will carry over to 2013, the team will struggle to fill the holes in the secondary and the offensive line.  Bruce Allen will do what he can, but it is likely the Redskins will not have the resources to fix the problems they face.  If the Redskins find themselves struggling again next season, will the patience of Dan Snyder and the fans finally run out?  Snyder has fired coaches for a lot less.  Will people be able to keep the big picture in mind this season and the next or will Griffin’s success bring back the “win now” mentality that has hampered the organization for so many years?

Mike Shanahan has made his share of mistakes as head coach.  Hiring his son as offensive coordinator seemed like nepotism at its absolute worse and Kyle has done little to prove critics wrong.  Grossman and Beck might actually be a worse QB tandem than Brady Quinn and Colt McCoy, and it’s made even more embarrassing by the fact that this QB competition was by design rather than necessity.  Still, I see a lot of potential in the core the Redskins have brought in during the Shanahan era and I am wary of dismantling the coaching staff when things finally seem to be on the right track.  So, let’s everyone take a collective deep breath.  Griffin looks great, but the Redskins aren’t Super Bowl bound this year or next year.  The Redskins may be a .500 team in 2012 and 2013, but don’t panic.  It’s all part of the plan.

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