The Capitals and Bruins square off tonight at 7:30 to open their playoff series. This year, the Caps are playing the unfamiliar role of the underdog and will have to start quickly in Boston to have a chance. Thanks to a strong finish, the Caps qualified for the playoffs in the 81st game and climbed into the 7th spot on the last day of the regular season. The unfortunate reality of being in the bottom of the conference, however, is that the Caps managed to avoid a matchup with the top team in the conference and instead will now face the defending champions. If the Boston of 2011 shows up for this series, the Caps may be facing yet another early playoff exit.
To start the season, Boston had the typical Stanley Cup hangover and struggled in the opening month. They quickly rebounded and became the best team in the league by December and, despite some late season consistency issues, they have remained near the top. Offensively the Bruins tend to share the wealth. Boston was the only team this season to have six players with 20 or more goals. With scorers on their top three lines, the Bruins have the luxury of being able to cycle through all of their lines without sacrificing offensive pressure. They will, however, be playing without Nathan Horton who is suffering from a concussion. He produced in key moments last season and the Bruins may struggle to find that clutch weapon in key moments. Defensively, the Bruins are led by their big man, Zdeno Chara. He is known for shutting down opponents’ star players and is expected to matchup with Alex Ovechkin.
The Bruins, however, will only go as far as goalie Tim Thomas will allow them to go. Boston’s Stanley Cup run last season I think can be credited more to Thomas’ heroics than to anything else, as is evidenced by his winning the Conn Smythe as playoff MVP. Though he is not having the Vezina winning season he had last year, there’s no doubt he’s capable of standing on his head come playoff time. The real question in net is what the Bruins do if Thomas is injured. Normally, Thomas is backed-up by the very stout Tukka Rask, but he is currently nursing a groin injury and will not be available at least initially. That means AHL call up Anton Khudobin will be Thomas’ back up. He won’t see any action unless Thomas goes down, but it’s something to be aware of.
Calling this a rollercoaster season for the Capitals would be an understatement. Despite a 7-0 start, the Caps soon looked mediocre and it spelled the end for the long embattled Bruce Boudreau. Caps’ legend Dale Hunter took over the team and the Caps stayed on the fringe of the playoffs throughout the season only qualifying in the final week. The biggest question mark heading into this series for this team is goaltending. Tomas Vokoun has a possible season ending groin injury that will, at the very least, keep him out of action for round one. Michal Neuvirth suffered a lower body injury late in the season and though he looks closer to returning, it is unlikely he will be ready to go by tonight. That means the pressure falls on the inexperienced shoulders of Braden Holtby. The 22 year old has very limited NHL experience and no playoff experience. Though he has looked good at times, he has also showed his inexperience especially during the 5-1 loss against Buffalo. This is not unfamiliar territory for the Caps, who started the inexperienced Semyon Varlamov three years ago and Neuvirth last season, but it was a situation the Caps thought they would be able to avoid with the signing of Vokoun. The good news is that Holtby always seems to have a calm demeanor and is unlikely to fall victim to the playoff pressure, but how he will play against the physical Bruins is anybody’s guess.
Defensively, the Caps may have struggled to find any sort of defensive consistency this season and they may have trouble matching up against Boston’s offensive depth. Karl Alzner and Dmitry Orlov have played well, but I’m not quite sure how well they will handle Boston’s physicality. Mike Green has struggled immensely since his return and has not provided the spark both Hunter and General Manager George McPhee were hoping for. Roman Hamrlik could be a key blue liner, but his age is a factor. How much left does he have in the tank? Even the team’s lone all star, Dennis Wideman, has a few question marks surrounding him as he tends to be outskated in the defensive zone. The Caps will need all five players on the ice to commit themselves to playing a smart, physical defensive strategy. They cannot allow themselves to be pushed off the puck in their own zone, but cannot allow the Bruins’ physical play to frustrate them and translate into penalties.
When it comes to scoring, most people believe the story begins and ends with Ovechkin. While he has not played up to his potential this season, he really picks things up come playoff time with 50 points in 37 playoff appearances. The problem is that Ovechkin can expect to play across from Chara all series long and Chara is known for shutting down superstar opponents. Hunter will have to rearrange his lines to spread out the scoring. Don’t be surprised to see Nicklas Backstrom playing second line instead of next to Ovechkin. Hunter can’t have Chara shut down both Ovie and Backstrom, so instead I would expect Backstrom to play second line with Alex Semin. Semin can’t give the team his yearly disappearing act. Besides the obvious superstars, the Caps are going to have to rely on players like Jay Beagle and Joel Ward to match some of Boston’s physicality. Towards the end of the season, Hunter began pitting Beagle against some team’s top lines and he was very effective at shutting them down. Matching will be difficult against Boston’s balanced attack, but his physicality will be no less important. As for Ward, he was signed after his playoff heroics last season and thus far he has not come close to living up to that contract. This is what he was brought in for and this is where he needs to really pick up his game.
Looking at this matchup, things don’t look great for the Caps. Despite beating Boston three out of four times this season, Boston knows how to pick up their game in the postseason. The Caps cannot allow themselves to be bogged down by Boston’s physicality. If they do, they will be stuck on their heels in their own zone. They have to transition up and out quickly and work their offense around Chara. Secondary scoring will be key since I’m not sure how much you can expect from Ovechkin. Boston will want to forecheck and keep offensive possession. Most of all, they will try to agitate. They will be merciless in the crease, knowing the Caps will be depending on a rookie netminder. If they can keep possession in the offensive zone, they will tire the Caps out while rolling through their balanced lines and generate goals and penalties.
This series will depend on games one and two. The Caps have always played well at home and are certainly skilled enough to win at Verizon, but this is a bad matchup for them and they cannot afford to go down early. The Caps MUST steal one in Boston. If they head to DC down 2-0, they will lose in five. If they can take one in Boston, they can definitely win at least one at home and anything can happen in a 2-2 series. They need at least one in Boston to have a chance or once again fans in DC will go home feeling the season ended far too early.
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