Tuesday, May 28, 2013

WIzards poised to add key piece after climbing draft board

The Wizards’ draft outlook changed drastically when the team shot all the way from eighth to third in the draft.

The Wizards have six players with less than four years of NBA experience. Because of this, it was widely expected that the Wizards would trade their first round pick if they had stayed in the eighth spot. Having moved up to the third, however, their situation has changed.

Even in a subpar draft, the Wizards should be able to find some prime talent with the third overall pick.

John Wall and Bradley Beal are expected to be the team’s long-term starters at point guard and shooting guard. Every other position is a position of need. Emeka Okafor and Trevor Ariza are on the last years of their contracts and Nene’s health is always a question. Every other player still on the roster is a depth player.

While coach Randy Wittman has come out and said he always drafts for talent rather than for need, I think we can safely assume the Wizards will draft either a center, power forward, or small forward, who will fit easily into the roster.

The two names most experts keep listing are PF Anthony Bennett out of UNLV and SF Otto Porter Jr. out of Georgetown.

Conventional wisdom says that Nerlens Noel is likely to go first or second, meaning at least one of these players will fall to the Wizards and I would be shocked if they decided to look elsewhere.

What does each one bring to the table? Bennett is a dangerous scorer, especially from the paint. He has tremendous potential and the skill-set to play either PF or SF in the NBA. The Wizards were one of the league’s best defensive teams and one of the worst offensively. If you were to sit down and list everything the Wizards needed, Bennett would cross just about every box on that list. He has not been able to work out for teams because he just underwent shoulder surgery, but most analysts do not see this as any a cause for concern.

Porter is a hometown hero who the Wizards probably know very well as he played college basketball for Georgetown. He has a great mid-range game with a high basketball IQ. He is a great facilitator that would work well with Wall and Beal in the backcourt. He lacks power and his prospect as a top 3-5 pick are more a reflection of the draft than of his NBA potential. Still, Washington has a roster in which Porter could potentially thrive.

If given a choice between the two, I think the Wizards would take Bennett. Shoulder surgery notwithstanding, Bennett is seen as having the higher ceiling. The flexibility of his game would serve the Wizards well as they have so many potential holes on their roster.

Still, the Wizards will be satisfied should Porter fall to them as well. Either way, the Wizards stand to gain a major piece to their postseason puzzle on June 27.

Saturday, May 25, 2013

Thursday, May 23, 2013

Caps have work to do this offseason

Though the sting of the Capitals’ latest playoff collapse may still be fresh, the team must look beyond this season and determine what they need to do to finally bring the Stanley Cup to Washington.

Next season’s salary cap will actually be lower due to the new CBA. As of now, the Caps are about $5.6 million under the $64.3 million cap with eight free agents, five unrestricted, on the roster.

The Caps already had holes in their roster; $5.6 million is not a lot of money to re-sign their key FAs and fill those holes. They will, however, be able to add a little more room with an amnesty buyout.

As part of the new CBA, the Caps are allowed two amnesty buyouts, meaning they can buy out a player’s contract and not have it count towards the salary cap. I expect the Caps will buyout Jeff Schultz. According to Capgeek.com, Schultz will have a cap hit of $2.75 million for next season. That is far too high for a player who does not receive regular playing time, especially when there are several other defensemen to replace him.

The biggest question facing the Caps is whether or not to re-sign Mike Ribeiro. Every other move the Caps make this offseason will be tied to their decision on Ribeiro. The Caps have searched for a second line center for many years, and Ribeiro fit that role nicely with 13 goals and 36 assists in 48 games.

The Caps must also keep in mind prospect center Evgeny Kuznetsov in Russia. The 21 year-old phenom is widely considered one of the best players in the world not currently in the NHL. His contract with Traktor Chelyabinsk of the KHL will expire in 2014 and he has said many times he will play for Washington after that.

With Kuznetsov slated to be the team’s long-term solution on the second line, it would be ideal for the Caps to re-sign Ribeiro for only one or two years, but he has been firm in his stance that he wants a contract of four or five years so as not to move his family again. At 33 years old, he can expect a pay cut from the $5 million he made last season and has said he would be willing to accept less money to stay in DC, but he will still be expensive to sign. Four years and around $3 million is a fairly large gamble for a team that presumably will only need him for one or two years.

Having said that, I would love to see Ribeiro back. After how long it took the Caps to find a second line center, I am reluctant to let him walk away. I am also skeptical of Kuznetsov who has been teasing us for years. If the Caps do buyout Schultz, then they can easily afford to re-sign Ribeiro, but it will depend on the specifics of the contract. He is likely to ask for a no-trade clause which may be a deal breaker for the Caps. I do not anticipate the two sides being able to reach a mutually beneficial agreement and the Caps will once again be in need of a second line center.

Karl Alzner and Marcus Johansson are both restricted free agents. I would expect both to return. Alzner may be a bit more expensive than the Caps would like, but Johansson can be signed relatively cheaply. Both are young and part of the Caps’ long-term plan, especially Alzner as he is one of the team’s best defensemen.

Tomas Kundratek is also a restricted free agent. He provides the team with more defensive depth and I expect him to return as well so long as there is room for him.

Of the team’s four remaining unrestricted free agents, two have already made it clear they will not return. Tom Poti told reporters he would be moving on and Wojtek Wolski signed with Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod of the Kontinental Hockey League. Joey Crabb was sent down to the AHL Hershey midway through last season in order to make room for Mike Green's return from injury. If he were willing to accept a two-way contract, the Caps may consider bringing him back, but I doubt he would. There just is not enough room for him.

The Caps face a much tougher decision with Matt Hendricks. Hendricks is a gritty forward and locker room leader. He made only $800,000 last season, but based on his impact could expect a slight raise as other teams will be willing to pay him more to try and coax him out of Washington.

Should the Caps re-sign Ribeiro, the Caps may not have enough cap room to commit $1 million to a 31 year-old Hendricks. These are the types of players that George McPhee seems to value, however, and I assume he will be re-signed. The only thing that gives me pause is the Caps’ re-signing of Aaron Volpatti. He is younger than Hendricks and is a similar type of player. His extension was a surprise to me and could signal that the team is prepared to move on without Hendricks.

The Rangers revealed two major weaknesses in he Caps. First, they have no scoring depth, and second, they have no mid-level defensive depth.

When Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom produce, the Caps win. When Ovechkin surged in the second half of the season, he brought the team with him all the way to a Southeast Division championship. The top line stopped producing in the playoffs and the Caps were sent packing. To say they simply ran into a hot goalie is an over-simplification of what happened. The Caps have more offensive depth than the Bruins, yet the Bruins have scored ten goals in the first three games of their series with the Rangers. Henrik Lundqvist has looked fantastic and the Bruins are still managing to score.

The problem is that the Caps do not have enough scoring weapons on the top two lines and depend far too much on Ovechkin and Backstrom. The Caps do not have a top line left wing or a secondary scoring threat. They used to depend on Alex Semin on the second line and his departure has left a clear hole in the lineup. George McPhee’s acquisition of Martin Erat was an attempt to fix the problem. The Caps need to decide if Erat can become a legitimate second line weapon and, with Erat’s $4.5 million cap hit, McPhee better hope he can.

Defensively, Alzner, Green, and John Carlson have shown they are a solid top three. Steve Oleksy looks like he can contribute as a four or five, but after him there are not a lot of guys you can depend on as a full-time blue liner. The Caps are defensively top heavy.

John Erskine, Jack Hillen, Tomas Kundratek, and Schultz can all contribute as a six or seven; meaning they provide flexibility in case of injury, but are not dependable as full-time defensemen. Having four of them is too many, especially when there are few players to plug into the four or five spot.

The Caps will hope that Dmitry Orlov will continue to develop and fit into one of those middle spots, but they have too many players who contribute the same thing. Erskine and Hillen are likely not going anywhere. The team likes Kundratek and I expect they will re-sign him. Schutlz, as I explained earlier, is out. Even with Orlov, this team needs mid-level depth.

This is the team’s first offseason with Adam Oates as the head coach so McPhee should make a few moves to bring in players better suited for Oates’ system. Still, I do not see any major free agent signings. I expect the Caps will sign a mid-level defenseman and a veteran center to plug into the second or third line. The Caps trust Brooks Laich will be healthy for next season and they can plug him into the second line if need be, but they will need to bring in another if they do in fact let Ribeiro walk.

If both Schultz and Ribeiro are gone, however, the Caps may have enough room to address the left hole in the top line. Johnasson is good but, let’s be honest, he’s not a top line talent.

The Caps have their work cut out for them this offseason.

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Monday, May 20, 2013

Does Bryce Harper need to change the way he plays?

Last Monday at Dodger Stadium, Bryce Harper showed just how hard he plays the game when he collided full-speed into the outfield wall while chasing a fly ball. Luckily he did not suffer a concussion, but the violent hit left him hurting in many other areas.

"Both legs, (left) shoulder, ribs, hand, wrist, chin of course," Harper told the media. He has been day-to-day since then, missing a few games over the course of the week.

While it appears Harper will be none the worse for wear, the incident has sparked an interesting debate over whether Harper will have to change the way he plays or risk serious injuries that could potentially shorten his career.

Since the injury, people have described Harper as ‘negligent’, a ‘daredevil’, ‘irresponsible’, etc. The vast majority of this criticism is overblown. I took much greater issue when Harper hit the wall with a bat and it bounced back and hit him in the head. In that case, he let his emotions get the best of him and it led to an easily avoidable injury. In LA, Harper was just trying to make a play.

With a 162 game season and 27 outs per game, is it smart for Harper to play so hard for each and every out? Perhaps not, but determining when making a play is not worth it is a very grey area as a manager cannot tell his players in the outfield not to play hard to make every catch. Let’s not forget what it was like to watch Barry Bonds in the outfield. When he was not sleeping in the grass or picking flowers, he was trotting after balls like he was just playing catch in his backyard. Nobody wants to see that.

I feel with all this ‘daredevil’rhetoric, people are missing the problem with what happened in LA; Harper misplayed the ball.

When playing the outfield, players need to realize when they can and cannot make a catch so they can position themselves to quickly grab the ball when it hits the ground or the wall. Harper was close to the ball, but as it began to fall he needed to realize he was too close to the wall and would not make the catch. What he should have done was stop and position himself to grab the ball off the wall.

Harper is not being irresponsible in his play. It would be more irrseponsible for him to not try and put himself before the team. What he is guilty of is not knowing where he was on the field. Yes, there is a warning track, but remember that the setup of every MLB field is different. Even with the warning track, it is easy to understand how a 20 year-old can get lost in an unfamiliar park. Field awareness is something Harper will continue to learn.

Harper plays the game hard and he should be commended for that, not criticized. The incident in LA is the result of him playing at 100% and losing track of where he was on the field. Harper is not a daredevil or irresponsible, he’s a young competitor who is still learning to play the outfield. And if you remain unconvinced and still think Harper needs to do more to protect himself, that’s an easy fix. All Davey Johnson needs to do is sit him down and point out the time he misses when he does get injured. If playing means so much to you, don’t hit yourself in the head with a bat or you’ll miss time. Don’t hit the wall or you’ll miss time. With how much Harper loves to play each and every night, he’ll get the message.

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Thursday, May 16, 2013

Caps enter offseason far too early, yet again

There was an all-too familiar feeling in DC Monday night; that awful, sinking feeling fans have come to expect every year. The Caps were headed home after another early-postseason exit.

The script always seems different, but the ending remains the same for the Caps. With a new coach, the odds were stacked against them coming out of the lockout. The team struggled immensely to start the season as they struggled to grasp the new system put in by Adam Oates, their third coach in two seasons.

Just when it looked like the Caps had dug themselves a hole too deep to dig out of, the team turned things around and grew white-hot. Alex Ovechkin became a superstar once again, Braden Holtby turned back into the star goalie from last year’s playoffs, and the team rallied to win its fifth Southeast division title in six years.

There was hope that the Caps would be able to stay hot in the playoffs as they faced the New York Rangers yet again, but after jumping out to a two game lead, the Caps were unable to close out the series and lost an embarrassing 5-0 contest in Game 7 in DC.

Yet again we are left to wonder what went wrong; yet again we ask what is this team missing?

Much has been made about the refereeing, especially after Ovechkin spoke out against the refs during his exit interview. The Rangers had 28 power-play opportunities in the series while the Caps had only 16. The Rangers were the least penalized team in the NHL in the regular season, so perhaps it is no surprise that there would be a discrepancy in power-plays, but the numbers hide just how important the penalties were and how bad some of the calls seemed to be. Too many penalties derailed the Caps’ offense. Frustration over the lack of calls against New York boiled over and led to more penalties as the Caps lashed out against their opponents.

The reffing was undeniably one-sided, but not for any sinister reason. My theory is that the refs were fed up with players like Jason Chimera and Mike Ribeiro who have made a habit of voicing their displeasure to the refs. As a result, whether consciously or subconsciously, the refs made the Caps pay.

Still, the Caps did this to themselves. The Rangers agitated the Caps, and they responded by committing stupid penalties. You cannot blame the refs for the numerous delay of game penalties or the Caps retaliatory penalties. Teams are going to agitate the Caps as long as it works. They needed to keep cooler heads on the ice and they were unable to do so.

The contributions of Henrik Lundqvist also cannot be over-stated. He is one of the best goalies in the league and he looked like it. The Caps managed only 12 goals in seven games against the Rangers and were shutout in the last two. Ovechkin was the league’s leading scorer but scored only one goal in seven games.

As good as Lundqvist was, the Rangers exposed a major weakness for the Caps; scoring depth.

Alexander Semin may have been a scapegoat over the past few years, but his departure left a gaping scoring hole on the second line. To try and fix this problem, General Manager George McPhee attempted to address this problem by trading for Martin Erat, but it was not enough.

Ultimately, the Caps are a skilled team without enough skill and with little offensive grit. No one wanted screened Lundqvist and the Caps managed few ‘dirty’ goals. There was not enough traffic in front of Lundqvist and not enough offensive creativity. The Rangers forced the puck back to the point and the Caps struggled to distribute, as demonstrated by the team’s shot totals. Ovechkin led the team in shots, but the next three highest shot totals came from defensemen. If Ovechkin is struggling to beat Lundqvist, you can beat Karl Alzner will as well.

Depth was also an issue on defense, where the John Erskine and Jack Hillen were exposed as major weaknesses at the blue line.

I have constantly spoken out against Erskine in the past, but this year he really turned me around. This season may have been his best as a professional. Hillen also played incredibly well, but the Ragners were not impressed.

Both Hillen and especially Erskine were victimized by the Rangers. This is an area the Caps must address this offseason. This was Erskine’s best season and he was still a step behind come the playoffs. He simply is not a player you can depend on when it matters most.

Without question, the biggest problem for the Caps is in their heads. There are weaknesses in their lineup, the refereeing could have been better, Lundqvist was hot, but all of these obstacles could have been overcome. The Caps just flat out did not play well enough to win this series.

Secondary scoring became a glaring weakness because their stars were not producing. Ovechkin had zero points in the last five games, Backstrom had only three points total, and the team’s leading scorer was Mike Green with two goals. That simply is not good enough.

The fact that the Caps could be so easily agitated and pressured into taking dumb penalties shows a lack of progression and maturity that just boggles the mind. The Caps have a great roster full of stars in their prime with years of playoff experience. Why are they still struggling to stay disciplined? Why are their stars struggling to produce? Why is the pressure still affecting them so blatantly?

Despite everything else, the biggest problem for this team is the mental hurdle they still have yet to overcome. That fragile mentality was evident in the 5-0 loss Monday night when the team collapsed at the first hint of adversity.

That same night, the Bruins overcame a three goal deficit in their game 7, to defeat Toronto in overtime. Between the Caps and Bruins, which would you guess is only two years removed from a Stanley Cup?

Time for the Caps to toughen up mentally or every year we will be left to ask ourselves, what’s missing?

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Third round pairings announced for U.S. Open Cup

http://www.csnwashington.com/blog/dc-united-talk/third-round-pairings-announced-us-open-cup

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Saturday, May 11, 2013

Is Zimmermann the best pitcher on the Nationals?

Expectations were high for the Nationals’ rotation heading into the season. The team boasts three ace-caliber pitchers and, based on their performance last year, starting pitching was thought of as a strength. With no innings-limit hovering over Stephen Strasburg’s head and Gio Gonzalez coming off a 21 win season, it was not hard to imagine a pitcher establishing himself as a Cy Young contender.

Thirty-five games into the season, one pitcher has indeed established himself, but not the one you may have thought.

Jordan Zimmermann is the often-overlooked star of this rotation. He has been the most consistent pitcher by far this season and is arguably responsible for bringing the Nationals out of their recent slump.

That’s quite an accomplishment for a player who only plays once every five games.

Zimmermann was drafted by the Nationals in 2007 and made his major league debut April 20, 2009. In August of that year, however, he underwent Tommy John surgery and thus fell under the radar.

Zimmermann returned on August 26, 2010, but his return was also over-shadowed. On that same day, the Nationals learned that their new phenom, Strasburg, would be undergoing Tommy John surgery as well.

The return of a relatively unknown pitcher did not seem to matter.

Since that time, however, Zimmermann has established himself as one of the league’s best pitchers.

With no innings limit, Strasburg was expected to pitch like the ace we all know he can be. In his seven starts this season, he has a 1-4 record with a 3.45 ERA and five homeruns allowed.

Gio has struggled even more than Strasburg. He has gotten better run support than Strasburg, helping him reach a 3-2 record, but he has a 4.97 ERA and has also allowed five homeruns.

Zimmermann on the other hand, continues to dominate. He leads the team with a 6-1 record and a 1.59 ERA. He has allowed only two homeruns and a WHIP of 0.82. He pitched eight scoreless innings in Atlanta to help the Nationals earn their first win of the season against their divisional rivals. Since that game, the Nationals have won five of their next six, pulling the team out of its slump.

Strasburg is one of the best pitching talents in the league and I have no doubt he will play better as the season goes along. Likewise, I expect Gio to rebound as well. But the Nationals currently have a record of 20-15. Imagine where they would be without Zimmermann.

Zimmermann is eligible for arbitration in 2015. It will be hard for the Nationals to keep him, as it is hard to pay three aces to remain in your rotation. He is arguably the best pitcher in baseball right now and he is third in this rotation.

The point is that with Strasburg and Gio, it appeared Zimmermann would be expendable and too expensive to keep. No doubt it will be hard to pay him what he is worth while keeping him at third in the rotation, but do not dismiss how important he is to this team right now. He may not be as expendable as many have assumed.

Wednesday, May 1, 2013

Caps-Rangers preview

And so they meet again.

For the third year in a row and the fourth time in five seasons, the Washington Capitals will meet the New York Rangers in the playoffs. Every year these teams take very different routes to the playoffs and this year was no different.

Every Caps’ fan knows the roller coaster season the Caps have had. After starting the season 2-8-1, the Caps went on a tear. They looked like a lottery team and finished as one of the hottest teams in the league. Much of their success coincided with the resurgence of Alex Ovechkin, who wrapped up his third career Rocket Richard Trophy for most goals in the league. Despite the rocky start, the Caps rebounded to win the last ever Southeast Division Championship, their fifth in six years and seventh in team history.

The Caps head into the postseason having won 11 of their past 13, but really have been riding a hot streak for half the season now. That kind of streak and confidence can go a long way in the postseason, as the defending champion LA Kings can attest to.

Similarly, the Rangers are riding their own streak having gone 10-3-1 in the month of April which was sorely needed as the Rangers have been underachieving all season long. Will their new found confidence be enough to lead them past the Caps?

Offensive Key: Which offense will stay hot?

New York lost in the Eastern Conference Finals last season to New Jersey. With the addition of star winger Rick Nash in the off season the Rangers looked poised to challenge for the Stanley Cup, but were unable to gain the type of offensive veracity most people envisioned. They finished the season with 2.6 goals per game, good for 15th in the NHL. John Tortorella, the angry grandfather of NHL coaches, might not be the right coach for the roster this team has assembled.

The Ranger's recent run, however, came after a deadline trade with Columbus that sent Marion Gaborik to Columbus and brought in Derik Brassard, among others. The result thus far has been the type of offensive productions the Rangers have sought all year. Is this is a sign of improvement or simply a recent hot-streak that will cool down in the postseason?

It is well known how good the Caps are offensively, the question is whether the Rangers will be able to keep up.

Defensive Key: Can the Caps control their defensive zone?

The Rangers may have struggled to score but with their offensive talent they can put together a potent attack at any time.

Defensively, the Caps have really struggled to control their own crease. Tortorella’s teams always like to agitate and I expect on every offensive shift, someone will plant himself in front of Braden Holtby and dare the defense to kick him out.

The Caps also are terrible at covering the cross-ice pass. The defense can at times get sucked into a play and lose track of an opposing winger, leaving them open for an easy strike.

Controlling the crease will be a major key for the Caps. With the Rangers’ recent offensive surge, however, the Caps also cannot afford to lose track of New York’s dangerous scorers.

Goalie key: How many games can Lundqvist steal?

The Rangers managed to climb into the playoffs thanks to star goaltender Henrik Lundqvist. In the recent history between the Caps and Rangers, many players have come and gone. Lundqvist, however, has been there for all three of the recent series and he has been a rock each time. He will be critical in this series.

The Caps have the fourth best offense in the league and the top ranked power play. The Caps have been able at times to score on Lundqvist, but he is more than capable of stealing a game or two for the Rangers in this series and he will have to for the Rangers to have any chance.

Opposite him, will be Braden Holtby who established himself last year when he was thrust into the spotlight thanks to injuries to both Tomas Vokoun and Michal Neuvirth. Holtby unexpectedly found himself as the starting goalie in the playoffs and he was fantastic. The Caps will not rely on Holtby as much as the Rangers will rely on Lundqvist, but he will still need to be strong in this series if the Caps hope to win.

Special teams key: Can the Rangers stay disciplined?

The Caps have the best power play in the league. The Rangers have the 15th penalty kill. They are extremely aggressive, but to a fault. There are times when all four penalty killers will swarm to the puck, leaving someone alone and open in front of the net. The Rangers know they cannot do that against Ovechkin and the Caps because they will be shredded. If Ovechkin finds himself alone and by himself, it will not matter who’s in net.

Still, unless you see drastic improvement from the Rangers, the power play will be an obvious strength for the Caps.

As I said before, Tortorella coached teams love to agitate their opponents. They will play very physically against the Caps, but they must stay disciplined. The Rangers cannot afford to give the Caps too many chances on the power play or the Caps will make them pay.

Prediction:

Offense will decide this series. The Rangers need to score like the team everyone thought they would be all season long and the Caps need to score like the team we’ve seen in the second half of the season. More specifically, Ovechkin needs to score like the player we’ve seen in the second half.

Ovechkin leads the team (and the league) with 32 goals. Troy Brouwer is second on the team with 19 and Mike Ribeiro is third with 13. For you math whizzes out there, that means Ovechkin has more goals than both Brouwer and Ribeiro combined. You can say the Caps need to get secondary scoring, but who are we kidding? Ovechkin got them here; the postseason is not the time to suddenly depend on secondary scoring.

The Caps will win this series if Ovechkin can score five goals. That’s a tall task for a playoff series and against a goalie like Lundqvist, but the Caps will need that kind of production from him to survive.

The hotter Ovechkin remains, the better the Caps will fare against their familiar foes.

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