Sunday, November 25, 2012

A Special Thanksgiving for RG3

In a rookie season full of special moments, Robert Griffin III added yet another one on the biggest stage yet.  On Thanksgiving Day in Dallas, Griffin carved apart the Cowboys’ secondary like he was carving up a Thanksgiving turkey.

It was a nationally televised game in “Jerry world” out of Griffin’s home state of Texas.  He was thrust into one of the most storied rivalries in the NFL and he played like he belonged.  He went 20 of 28 for 311 yard and 4 touchdowns in perhaps his most impressive NFL performance yet.

The Redskins jumped to a 28-3 lead at halftime, dominating the Cowboys in just about every aspect of the game.  The Cowboys made a run in the second half and Griffin stepped up again.

Up 35-28 in the fourth, the Redskins were in desperate need of a long drive.  The Cowboys had managed to cut the deficit to one possession and all the momentum was on their side.  Griffin delivered clutch pass after clutch pass, leading the Redskins down the field for a Kai Forbath field goal that put the Redskins up by ten.

The numbers are not what made Griffin’s performance impressive, it was how he got them.  He showed pin-point accuracy on his passes from all parts of the field.  Whether it was hitting Aldrick Robinson deep, throwing just behind a leaping defender into the waiting arms of Pierre Garcon in the middle of the field, or throwing just behind a tightly covered Santana Moss where only he could catch, he showed accuracy and vision in all the different spots on the field.  He’s not a gunslinger, he doesn’t just check down, his accuracy is not limited to any specific route or distance; he can throw it anywhere.

So I’m not exactly going out on a limb here by writing about how good Griffin is, but the point is that he has absolutely surpassed even the most optimistic of expectations.  More importantly, he makes the team around him better.

The Redskins have scored 35 touchdowns this year and Griffin has accounted for 22 of them (16 through the air, six on the ground).  The Redskins boast a 5-6 record and are in the division hunt despite having the 30th ranked pass defense in the league.  If the Redskins do manage to make the playoffs, he should be the unanimous MVP because he will have single-handedly elevated this team to that level of play.  I’m not saying he will be, just saying he should….

All hyperbole aside, I still am not overly optimistic in terms of playoffs for this season, but that does not take away from what he has already accomplished.  Not only does Griffin look like he will be a top NFL quarterback, he looks like a clutch one as well, capable of delivering when it’s most important.

An elite talent who plays his best games on the biggest stage?  Sounds like a franchise quarterback to me.

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Friday, November 23, 2012

Wizards' problems go beyond their injured stars

All you could do was laugh.

Down by one to Atlanta, Martell Webster hit a layup as the buzzer sounded. The shot initially counted and the Wizards looked as if they had finally gotten their first win.  The referees conferred, reviewed the video, and declared the shot was late. The Wizards fell to a franchise-worst 0-10.

All the high hopes and expectations have been derailed in a single month. The Wizards spent much of the offseason declaring they were no longer a lottery team, that they could compete for a playoff spot. It certainly does not look like that’s going to happen.

The biggest issue the Wizards have faced is health. Both John Wall and Nene, the team’s two most important players, were injured to start the season. It is no secret that the Wizards had hoped to build a team around Wall. When they were suddenly left with nothing more than a supporting cast, struggles were sure to follow.

To start the season 0-10, however, is not just bad, but historically bad. Only 13 teams in NBA history have started 0-10.  Don’t worry though, the Wizards have only lost by an average of 7 points, the best of those 13.  Congratulations, you are the best, worst team of all time.

As bad as things are, however, it is tough to put the blame on anyone on the court or on head coach Randy Wittman.  The players do look like they are legitimately trying out there.  Wittman is doing absolutely everything he can think of to right the ship.  While his news conferences and roster moves sometimes appear utterly desperate, it is hard to blame him for trying to get creative with a bad roster.

Do you think the Clippers would struggle without Blake Griffin and Chris Paul?  How about the Heat if they played without Lebron James and Dwayne Wade?  Of course no amount of injuries can justify perpetually losing in the NBA, but in my mind it does shift the blame from Wittman and the team to the front office.

The real mistake the Wizards made was building a team around a center whose health was a legitimate concern and a still unproven star point guard.  Nene has played ten seasons in the NBA and injuries have shortened his season to less than 70 games in five of those seasons.  He played a total of 39 games last year.

John Wall has not played more than 70 games in either season of his still short NBA career.  The concern with Wall, however, is not injury, but whether or not he will become the superstar talent the Wizards hoped he would be when they drafted him number one overall pick in the draft.

Wall is a very good point guard and his future looks bright, but he is not the cornerstone talent that franchises can build around.  The Wizards need to change their approach from bringing in supporting talent to bringing in star talent.  Granted that is easier said than done in today’s NBA where stars tend to follow stars, but let’s get realistic here.  Wall is not an elite talent capable of taking the Wizards to the next level by himself.

Nene was a good, albeit fragile, addition.  His presence addressed a real need for defense and leadership, but his health makes him difficult to rely on.  Bringing in Trevor Ariza and Emeka Okafor is not the answer and not just because of their early season struggles.  Both players are nice additions, but there was a reason they were traded.  New Orleans needed to get out from under their bad contracts.  “Bad contracts” are only bad when players are getting paid a lot more than they are worth.  Kobe Bryant makes a lot of money too, but the Lakers aren’t trying to trade him.

The Wizards would be a lot better with a healthy Wall and Nene in their lineup, but that does not justify an 0-10 start.  What this has shown is just how bad the “supporting cast” really is.  When Cleveland lost Lebron to the infamous “decision”, they did not start 0-10 the following season.  It is time to get back to the drawing board for Ernie Grunfeld and the Wizards.

Monday, November 19, 2012

Blogs coming!

Busy holiday week, but blogs are coming!  Check back Friday.

Monday, November 12, 2012

Mike Shanahan is Starting to Feel the Heat

Following a disappointing loss to the Carolina Panthers last week, Mike Shanahan seemingly threw in the towel on the 2012 season.  In his post-game press conference, Shanahan said he would use the rest of the season to evaluate the players and determine who “is going to be on your football team for years to come.”

Shanahan spent a good deal of time last week back-tracking, but while he was talking about evaluating player’s futures, a lot of people began to think about his.

The Redskins may not be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, but they face an uphill climb.  The team is only 14-27 under Shanahan and, barring an incredible run to finish the season, he will have failed to lead the Redskins to the playoffs in any of his three seasons.  At this point, many would have expected more progress.

It is not as if the Redskins have been quietly bad either.  Albert Haynesworth, Donovan McNabb, and John Beck all served as black-eyes to the organization.  While Shanahan did not bring in Haynesworth, he clearly mishandled the situation.  Bringing in his son, Kyle, to coach the offense felt like nepotism at its worst and Kyle has done little to prove otherwise.  Defensively, the Redskins have been trying to convert to a 3-4 defense for three years and still look as if they lack to personnel to run it successfully.

While Shanahan may have whiffed on a lot since coming to Washington, he finally got things right with Griffin.  Now the Redskins have one of the most electrifying players in the game and someone they can build an offense around.  Shanahan deserves some credit for gambling so much on a player who already looks to be paying off nine games into his career.

Changing coaches now could also hurt Griffin’s growth as an NFL player.  If Mike goes, Kyle is going with him.  A new coach will bring a new offense.  True, a coach with any sense at all will base his offense around Griffin’s skills and make it as easy a transition as possible, but never the less, they will bring a new system with them.

At one time, Jason Campbell was also thought to be the future franchise QB, but he never was able to get comfortable because he had to learn a new offense almost every year.  Daniel Snyder is not about to let that happen to Griffin.

While it is true that the Redskins have not seen much progress in terms of wins and losses, there has been progress.  The team was a mess after the Jim Zorn era.  The Redskins have started to build through the draft rather than buying over-the-hill talent.  They have committed to a slow and steady approach, now is not the time to start over.

A lot of frustration came boiling over last week in the wake of Shanahan’s comments, but what was your expectation for the season?  With an $18 million cap penalty that prevented the team from fixing glaring personnel flaws as well as a rookie quarterback, the outlook for the season was glum.  Griffin has been great and helped the Redskins to a 3-3 record to start the season, but they were overachieving; the team is not yet ready for the postseason.

I would argue that the fairest measure for Shanahan will be the 2014 season.  The cap penalty will carry over to next season and the Redskins will not have a first round draft pick thanks to the Griffin trade.  This will continue to handcuff Shanahan’s ability to make this team better.  The 2014 year will be Shanahan’s fifth and final year of his initial contract.  It will be the ultimate test to see if Shanhan has truly improved this team.  If the Redskins are still a basement-dweller, then it’s time to move on.

Two more years, however, may be too long for Snyder.  Things will have to get a whole lot worse this season for Shanahan to be in any real trouble, but you do wonder how long Snyder can remain patient.  Cap penalty or no, Shanahan is going to have to show a reason why he should remain coach or he will not be around to evaluate his players anymore.

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Tuesday, November 6, 2012

RG-Newton?

As the football world turned its collective attention to the matchup between the last two Heisman trophy winners, the inevitable comparison began to be made.  With all the struggles we have seen from Cam Newton this season, is Robert Griffin III destined for a similar sophomore slump?

Newton took the NFL by storm in his rookie year.  Originally thought to be a second or third round pick, Newton’s stock rose considerably after the National Championship and NFL combine.  He eventually rose to the point where the Carolina Panthers decided to take a chance on him and took him number one overall.

A Heisman trophy winner picked in the draft to revive a struggling franchise who took the NFL by storm in his rookie year?  You can see why the two are being compared.

Newton, however, has struggled this year.  Through eight games, he has thrown for six touchdowns and eight interceptions.  After setting a rookie record for rushing touchdowns last year with 14, he is currently on pace for eight.

Perhaps more troubling has been Newton’s demeanor.  He has looked absolutely despondent at times and his press conferences range from bizarre to downright depressing.  No one likes to lose, but it does not help when the emotional leader of the offense secludes himself on the sidelines with a towel over his head.

At 3-6, the Redskins have struggled much more than many anticipated.  If this continues into next season, will we see the same sort of statistical and emotional fall for Griffin?

While Newton’s rookie season was undoubtedly impressive, it masked the shortfalls of his game.  Those shortfalls are now being exposed.  Accuracy has always been an issue of Newton’s.  Last season he threw 17 interceptions, slightly more than one per game.  This season he has eight through eight games.  His accuracy was a known issue, but his intangibles made him worth the risk.

While people like comparing Griffin to Newton because of the similarities of their circumstances and their mobility, they are two very different quarterbacks.  Griffin has the ability to run, but he is a pocket passer.  He looks for the pass, and has a strong, accurate arm.  Griffin’s style is more suited to the NFL than Newton’s.

Griffin also has a different character and mentality than Newton does.  Newton was expelled from the University of Florida, transferred into junior college, and then to Auburn.  He was further investigated by the NCAA because his father allegedly demanded money from colleges for his son’s commitment.  Griffin committed to the University of Houston to play for coach Art Briles.  When Briles decided to accept the head coaching job at Baylor, Griffin decided to instead commit to Baylor where he played his entire college career.  Character was a red flag for Newton, not for Griffin.

Expectations were also too high for Carolina this year.  Center Ryan Kalil took out a newspaper ad at the beginning of the year declaring the Panthers were headed to the Super Bowl.  At 2-6, that’s obviously not going to happen.  The team’s struggles are not all Newton’s fault, but as the quarterback he obviously feels the most pressure.

Could the Redskins fall flat again next season?  There’s a definite chance.  The team has played terribly so far this year and with an $18 million cap penalty that will carry over to next season, the team will struggle to improve its personnel.  The pressure of a bad season will fall on Griffin, as well, but I doubt any of the failures will be because of him.  Much of the Redskins’ issues this year have been on the defensive side of the ball.  Griffin also does not have the turnover issues Newton has.  Whatever trouble the Redskins may have next season, Griffin is not likely to be part of the problem.  The same cannot be said of Newton this season.

NFL teams are going to get wise to Griffin’s game, that is inevitable, but he will get used to the NFL as well.  He will have his struggles, but his abilities and style of play are more suited to NFL success.  He also has good head on his shoulders.  He does not turn the ball over and always says the right thing on camera.  Griffin may well have a sophomore slump, but regardless he will still be an impressive player and you certainly are not going to see him mope on the sidelines.  Carolina can have their Superman, we’ll just take our man in the Superman socks.

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Saturday, November 3, 2012

NHL Cancels Winter Classic, Regular Season Probably Not Far Behind

The NHL announced on Friday the cancellation of the Winter Classic.  As the Classic goes, so goes the season.  Go ahead and make other plans, get your ticket refunds, trade in your Caps merchandise for Wizards, because there is not going to be a hockey season.

This may seem like an overreaction, but I’ve said all along that if the Classic were to be cancelled, the season would not be far behind.

The NHL has lost its biggest event of the season.  According to ESPN, the Classic had 3.5 million viewers last year.  Every game of the Stanley Cup finals averaged about 3 million viewers.  The Classis is the signature event, the one day every year when hockey is relevant.  And now, it’s gone.

Yes, it is only the beginning of November.  There is plenty of time to save the season, but it does not matter. Even if the NHL and NHLPA came to an agreement tomorrow, the Classic could not be brought back.  Deputy commissioner Bill Daly told reporters as much.

Rumors of the cancellation had been circulating for over a week.  The reason why the NHL waited until Friday was because when the announcement was made, it was final.  The event takes months of planning and preparing.  An outdoor rink does not just appear over night and an event of this magnitude take time to pull off.

With the Classic gone, both sides will struggle to come to an equitable deal.  The players have lost all of their leverage.  The only thing they really had to threaten the owners with was the Classic.

The lockout began with each side feeling out the other.  How long would the league be willing to let this drag out?  Perhaps if the players could hold out until they could threaten the league’s cash cow, the owners would be willing to offer a better deal.  Now  the NHL has lost its biggest, most profitable, most important event of the year.  The players have overplayed their hand, and the league is going to make them pay for it.

Two weeks ago, the NHL offered the players a 50/50 deal.  The NHLPA responded with three counter proposals that gave them more than what the NHL was offering and the NHL quickly rejected those proposals.  Why would the NHL now give the players a better deal?  The owners would never have locked the players out if the regular season were that important to them.  They will risk this season to get the upper hand in the negotiations.

The owners have come to a point where they can force a better deal for themselves on the players.  Before, the goal for the NHL was to come to an equitable agreement in order to save the Classic and the regular season.  Now, the goal is to get the best deal they can possibly force from the players.

Think about it this way, in a hostage negotiation, what happens when there are no more hostages to exchange?  That’s when the SWAT team goes in.  The players have nothing left to negotiate with.

The NHLPA turned their noses at the NHL’s proposal two weeks ago.  They will not simply cave in now, but they also cannot hold out as long as the owners can.  The longer this drags out, the more desperate they will become.  When this is over, the players will look back at the NHL’s last proposal and wish they had accepted it because the offers are only going to get worse from here on out.

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