Caps have work to do this offseason

Though the sting of the Capitals’ latest playoff collapse may still be fresh, the team must look beyond this season and determine what they need to do to finally bring the Stanley Cup to Washington.

Next season’s salary cap will actually be lower due to the new CBA. As of now, the Caps are about $5.6 million under the $64.3 million cap with eight free agents, five unrestricted, on the roster.

The Caps already had holes in their roster; $5.6 million is not a lot of money to re-sign their key FAs and fill those holes. They will, however, be able to add a little more room with an amnesty buyout.

As part of the new CBA, the Caps are allowed two amnesty buyouts, meaning they can buy out a player’s contract and not have it count towards the salary cap. I expect the Caps will buyout Jeff Schultz. According to Capgeek.com, Schultz will have a cap hit of $2.75 million for next season. That is far too high for a player who does not receive regular playing time, especially when there are several other defensemen to replace him.

The biggest question facing the Caps is whether or not to re-sign Mike Ribeiro. Every other move the Caps make this offseason will be tied to their decision on Ribeiro. The Caps have searched for a second line center for many years, and Ribeiro fit that role nicely with 13 goals and 36 assists in 48 games.

The Caps must also keep in mind prospect center Evgeny Kuznetsov in Russia. The 21 year-old phenom is widely considered one of the best players in the world not currently in the NHL. His contract with Traktor Chelyabinsk of the KHL will expire in 2014 and he has said many times he will play for Washington after that.

With Kuznetsov slated to be the team’s long-term solution on the second line, it would be ideal for the Caps to re-sign Ribeiro for only one or two years, but he has been firm in his stance that he wants a contract of four or five years so as not to move his family again. At 33 years old, he can expect a pay cut from the $5 million he made last season and has said he would be willing to accept less money to stay in DC, but he will still be expensive to sign. Four years and around $3 million is a fairly large gamble for a team that presumably will only need him for one or two years.

Having said that, I would love to see Ribeiro back. After how long it took the Caps to find a second line center, I am reluctant to let him walk away. I am also skeptical of Kuznetsov who has been teasing us for years. If the Caps do buyout Schultz, then they can easily afford to re-sign Ribeiro, but it will depend on the specifics of the contract. He is likely to ask for a no-trade clause which may be a deal breaker for the Caps. I do not anticipate the two sides being able to reach a mutually beneficial agreement and the Caps will once again be in need of a second line center.

Karl Alzner and Marcus Johansson are both restricted free agents. I would expect both to return. Alzner may be a bit more expensive than the Caps would like, but Johansson can be signed relatively cheaply. Both are young and part of the Caps’ long-term plan, especially Alzner as he is one of the team’s best defensemen.

Tomas Kundratek is also a restricted free agent. He provides the team with more defensive depth and I expect him to return as well so long as there is room for him.

Of the team’s four remaining unrestricted free agents, two have already made it clear they will not return. Tom Poti told reporters he would be moving on and Wojtek Wolski signed with Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod of the Kontinental Hockey League. Joey Crabb was sent down to the AHL Hershey midway through last season in order to make room for Mike Green's return from injury. If he were willing to accept a two-way contract, the Caps may consider bringing him back, but I doubt he would. There just is not enough room for him.

The Caps face a much tougher decision with Matt Hendricks. Hendricks is a gritty forward and locker room leader. He made only $800,000 last season, but based on his impact could expect a slight raise as other teams will be willing to pay him more to try and coax him out of Washington.

Should the Caps re-sign Ribeiro, the Caps may not have enough cap room to commit $1 million to a 31 year-old Hendricks. These are the types of players that George McPhee seems to value, however, and I assume he will be re-signed. The only thing that gives me pause is the Caps’ re-signing of Aaron Volpatti. He is younger than Hendricks and is a similar type of player. His extension was a surprise to me and could signal that the team is prepared to move on without Hendricks.

The Rangers revealed two major weaknesses in he Caps. First, they have no scoring depth, and second, they have no mid-level defensive depth.

When Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom produce, the Caps win. When Ovechkin surged in the second half of the season, he brought the team with him all the way to a Southeast Division championship. The top line stopped producing in the playoffs and the Caps were sent packing. To say they simply ran into a hot goalie is an over-simplification of what happened. The Caps have more offensive depth than the Bruins, yet the Bruins have scored ten goals in the first three games of their series with the Rangers. Henrik Lundqvist has looked fantastic and the Bruins are still managing to score.

The problem is that the Caps do not have enough scoring weapons on the top two lines and depend far too much on Ovechkin and Backstrom. The Caps do not have a top line left wing or a secondary scoring threat. They used to depend on Alex Semin on the second line and his departure has left a clear hole in the lineup. George McPhee’s acquisition of Martin Erat was an attempt to fix the problem. The Caps need to decide if Erat can become a legitimate second line weapon and, with Erat’s $4.5 million cap hit, McPhee better hope he can.

Defensively, Alzner, Green, and John Carlson have shown they are a solid top three. Steve Oleksy looks like he can contribute as a four or five, but after him there are not a lot of guys you can depend on as a full-time blue liner. The Caps are defensively top heavy.

John Erskine, Jack Hillen, Tomas Kundratek, and Schultz can all contribute as a six or seven; meaning they provide flexibility in case of injury, but are not dependable as full-time defensemen. Having four of them is too many, especially when there are few players to plug into the four or five spot.

The Caps will hope that Dmitry Orlov will continue to develop and fit into one of those middle spots, but they have too many players who contribute the same thing. Erskine and Hillen are likely not going anywhere. The team likes Kundratek and I expect they will re-sign him. Schutlz, as I explained earlier, is out. Even with Orlov, this team needs mid-level depth.

This is the team’s first offseason with Adam Oates as the head coach so McPhee should make a few moves to bring in players better suited for Oates’ system. Still, I do not see any major free agent signings. I expect the Caps will sign a mid-level defenseman and a veteran center to plug into the second or third line. The Caps trust Brooks Laich will be healthy for next season and they can plug him into the second line if need be, but they will need to bring in another if they do in fact let Ribeiro walk.

If both Schultz and Ribeiro are gone, however, the Caps may have enough room to address the left hole in the top line. Johnasson is good but, let’s be honest, he’s not a top line talent.

The Caps have their work cut out for them this offseason.

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Caps enter offseason far too early, yet again

There was an all-too familiar feeling in DC Monday night; that awful, sinking feeling fans have come to expect every year. The Caps were headed home after another early-postseason exit.

The script always seems different, but the ending remains the same for the Caps. With a new coach, the odds were stacked against them coming out of the lockout. The team struggled immensely to start the season as they struggled to grasp the new system put in by Adam Oates, their third coach in two seasons.

Just when it looked like the Caps had dug themselves a hole too deep to dig out of, the team turned things around and grew white-hot. Alex Ovechkin became a superstar once again, Braden Holtby turned back into the star goalie from last year’s playoffs, and the team rallied to win its fifth Southeast division title in six years.

There was hope that the Caps would be able to stay hot in the playoffs as they faced the New York Rangers yet again, but after jumping out to a two game lead, the Caps were unable to close out the series and lost an embarrassing 5-0 contest in Game 7 in DC.

Yet again we are left to wonder what went wrong; yet again we ask what is this team missing?

Much has been made about the refereeing, especially after Ovechkin spoke out against the refs during his exit interview. The Rangers had 28 power-play opportunities in the series while the Caps had only 16. The Rangers were the least penalized team in the NHL in the regular season, so perhaps it is no surprise that there would be a discrepancy in power-plays, but the numbers hide just how important the penalties were and how bad some of the calls seemed to be. Too many penalties derailed the Caps’ offense. Frustration over the lack of calls against New York boiled over and led to more penalties as the Caps lashed out against their opponents.

The reffing was undeniably one-sided, but not for any sinister reason. My theory is that the refs were fed up with players like Jason Chimera and Mike Ribeiro who have made a habit of voicing their displeasure to the refs. As a result, whether consciously or subconsciously, the refs made the Caps pay.

Still, the Caps did this to themselves. The Rangers agitated the Caps, and they responded by committing stupid penalties. You cannot blame the refs for the numerous delay of game penalties or the Caps retaliatory penalties. Teams are going to agitate the Caps as long as it works. They needed to keep cooler heads on the ice and they were unable to do so.

The contributions of Henrik Lundqvist also cannot be over-stated. He is one of the best goalies in the league and he looked like it. The Caps managed only 12 goals in seven games against the Rangers and were shutout in the last two. Ovechkin was the league’s leading scorer but scored only one goal in seven games.

As good as Lundqvist was, the Rangers exposed a major weakness for the Caps; scoring depth.

Alexander Semin may have been a scapegoat over the past few years, but his departure left a gaping scoring hole on the second line. To try and fix this problem, General Manager George McPhee attempted to address this problem by trading for Martin Erat, but it was not enough.

Ultimately, the Caps are a skilled team without enough skill and with little offensive grit. No one wanted screened Lundqvist and the Caps managed few ‘dirty’ goals. There was not enough traffic in front of Lundqvist and not enough offensive creativity. The Rangers forced the puck back to the point and the Caps struggled to distribute, as demonstrated by the team’s shot totals. Ovechkin led the team in shots, but the next three highest shot totals came from defensemen. If Ovechkin is struggling to beat Lundqvist, you can beat Karl Alzner will as well.

Depth was also an issue on defense, where the John Erskine and Jack Hillen were exposed as major weaknesses at the blue line.

I have constantly spoken out against Erskine in the past, but this year he really turned me around. This season may have been his best as a professional. Hillen also played incredibly well, but the Ragners were not impressed.

Both Hillen and especially Erskine were victimized by the Rangers. This is an area the Caps must address this offseason. This was Erskine’s best season and he was still a step behind come the playoffs. He simply is not a player you can depend on when it matters most.

Without question, the biggest problem for the Caps is in their heads. There are weaknesses in their lineup, the refereeing could have been better, Lundqvist was hot, but all of these obstacles could have been overcome. The Caps just flat out did not play well enough to win this series.

Secondary scoring became a glaring weakness because their stars were not producing. Ovechkin had zero points in the last five games, Backstrom had only three points total, and the team’s leading scorer was Mike Green with two goals. That simply is not good enough.

The fact that the Caps could be so easily agitated and pressured into taking dumb penalties shows a lack of progression and maturity that just boggles the mind. The Caps have a great roster full of stars in their prime with years of playoff experience. Why are they still struggling to stay disciplined? Why are their stars struggling to produce? Why is the pressure still affecting them so blatantly?

Despite everything else, the biggest problem for this team is the mental hurdle they still have yet to overcome. That fragile mentality was evident in the 5-0 loss Monday night when the team collapsed at the first hint of adversity.

That same night, the Bruins overcame a three goal deficit in their game 7, to defeat Toronto in overtime. Between the Caps and Bruins, which would you guess is only two years removed from a Stanley Cup?

Time for the Caps to toughen up mentally or every year we will be left to ask ourselves, what’s missing?

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McPhee rolls the dice on this season, trades Forsberg for Erat

The Capitals headed into the trade deadline unsure of where they stood. The team found themselves right at the edge between playoff contention and a lost season. The only real question seemed to be whether the Caps would keep Mike Ribeiro.

Then the media was told to get their cameras ready.

Rather than sitting on his hands as many had expected, General Manager George McPhee made a bold trade involving one the team’s top prospects.

The Caps traded Filip Forsberg to the Nashville Predators in exchange for Martin Erat and prospect Michael Latta. The Caps also chose not to move Ribeiro. In so doing McPhee sent a strong message to the team about his expectations for the season.

Erat is a top six winger who consistently produces 50 points per season. He is fast and very smart on the ice. It may take a few games for him to adjust to his new team and system, but he will be able to contribute offensively right away.

Forsberg was the 11^th overall pick in the 2012 NHL draft and widely hailed as one of the best prospects in the Caps’ system. He has great offensive skills and the potentil to become a top line winger. There are questions, however, over his speed and how long it may take Forsberg to develop into an NHL talent.

The latter may have been the sticking point.

The Caps still have top-notch talent in Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom and both are entering the prime of their careers. The championship window for this team may be closed by the time Forsberg began to reach his NHL potential and McPhee still feels this team is ready to compete now.

So while the Penguins added Jarome Iginla, Jussi Jokinen, and Brenden Morrow and the Bruins added Jaromir Jagr, the Caps added Erat? Is that really the move that will propel them to a Cup run?

Probably not, but there are three important things to keep in mind. First, the Caps are not as bad as their record. The Caps had a new coach with a new system and no training camp to implement it. They were always going to start slowly. Now the Caps have won three straight and seven of their last nine. We are beginning to see what this team could have been all season.

Second, this move was not made for this year alone. Erat has two years remaining on his contract. Since Oates was hired so late into the offseason, this was really the first major addition made with Oates in mind. This is a player who will be here next season who the Caps think can thrive in Oates' system.

Lastly, as the Kings showed us last year, it does not matter where you are in the standings come playoff time, you just have to get in. That is especially true this year with the condensed season; the better teams have not been able to separate themselves from the pack as they would have in a regular 82 game season.

McPhee managed to add a player than can help the offense both now and next season. The only problem is that in Nashville, Erat was more of a set-up man than a scorer which is what the Caps really needed. Still, as Nashville plays a more defensive system, with his puck handling skills and speed he may be able to thrive under Oates and provide a scoring touch this team has been missing since Alexander Semin's departure in the offseason.

Forsberg is a steep price, but if McPhee did have questions about his abilities at the NHL level then perhaps it is better to trade him now while his stock remains high.

A quick note: Erat left last night’s game against Florida when he was hit from behind by Erik Gudbranson and suffered a lower body injury. As of now, there has been now word as to the severity of that injury.

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How do the Caps Turn Things Around?

After losing nine of their first eleven games including an embarrassing 5-2 blowout loss in Pittsburgh, front office desperation seems to be taking hold of the Capitals’ front office.  It was reported on ESPN Sunday that Capitals’ General Manager George McPhee has begun inquiring about possible trades.  They had no specifics, but the fact that he’s looking is an indication of just how bad things have gone for the Caps this season.

A shortened season pretty much throws the normal dynamics of the NHL out the window, but even so I think we can safely say the Caps have underachieved even by the most pessimistic of standards.  I knew the team would struggle for the first month or so as they figured out Adam Oates’ new system, but I also assumed they would be able to pick up points along the way.  Five out of a possible 22 points to start the season and an NHL-worst record means that the team needs to turn the ship around now or the season will be over as quickly as it began.

So what options does McPhee have to try and keep the train from derailing completely?

Adam Oates could be sweating a little bit about his job security, but do not expect a coaching change anytime soon.  Things may be bad right now, but it would be unfair to place the blame solely on his shoulders.  Oates was not allowed to even contact his team during the lockout, let alone coach them.  When the lockout was finally lifted, NHL teams were given a whopping 6 days for training camp.  With a condensed season, the team also has fewer days in between games, meaning fewer practices.  Oates has made his share of mistakes, but that is to be expected based on the circumstances.

Also, since a lot of the Caps’ problems stem from having to learn a new system from a new coach, you are not going to solve that problem by bringing in a fourth coach in two years.

Rumors began flying over the weekend that the Caps were interested in goalie Roberto Luongo after Vancouver’s GM, Mike Gillis, was spotted by cameras during Sunday’s game in DC.  Both McPhee and Gillis have stated they have not discussed a trade for Luongo and let’s hope they’re telling the truth; bringing him in would make no sense.

Of all the many problems the Caps have had so far, goaltending is by no means the most glaring.  Neither goalie is getting any help from the defense.  While Braden Holtby has looked terrible, Michal Neuvirth has been fairly solid.  True, he has had his own inconsistencies and let in some soft goals, but in many games he was the only thing keeping the Caps competitive.

There’s also a reason Vancouver is trying to trade Luongo.  He has a massive contract that extends through the 2021-22 season and a cap hit of $5.3 million.  Add that to Ovechkin and Backstrom’s contract and good luck trying to build a team with what little room remains of the salary cap.

Vancouver has been shopping Luongo since the beginning of the offseason and they have yet to pull the trigger on a deal.  Chances are they are asking for a lot in return.  It does not make sense to give up what Vancouver is expecting to obtain a massive contract to solve the least pressing of the Caps’ many problems.

The Caps have a much greater need for a scoring winger and a top-four defenseman.  The Caps rank 24^th in goals per game and 27^th in goals against per game.  The problem for McPhee is finding available players at a reasonable cost.  It is hard to find a high-impact player that a team would be willing to give up for very little.  As Marcus Johansson and Mathieu Perreault seem to have fallen out of favor with Oates, McPhee could perhaps look to use them as trade bait.  Neither, however, is likely to return the type of player the Caps would be seeking.

At this point, coming off the heels of the Caps’ worst game of the season, it may be best to stand pat.  Fans of course never appreciate it when their team gives up on a season, but I do not see the point in trading prospects or draft picks to try and salvage a season that may be past saving.  No, it is not too late to turn things around, but should the Caps continue collapsing, chances are they will hold a very high draft slot.  At this point, those picks are worth more than a rental player.

The Caps will either have to turn things around on their own or use next year’s draft to bring in the type of young, dynamic talent this team suddenly seems to be missing.

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Capitals Preview: Shortened Season Provides New Challenges

The most baffling work stoppage perhaps in the history of sports finally came to an end Saturday with the NHL and NHLPA’s signing of the “memo of understanding” on Saturday night. Now the Washington Capitals must fit an entire offseason of preparation into one week as they prepare for the season opener on January 19^th in Tampa Bay. Here are the big questions that face this team heading into training camp.

Can Adam Oates instill a successful system quickly?

Adam Oates takes over for Dale Hunter as the third coach for the Caps in the last year. Oates served as an assistant coach in Tampa Bay for the 2009-2010 season and in New Jersey from 2010-2012. He has been universally praised for his offensive acumen, and the hope is that he will be able to revive Alex Ovechkin and the Caps’ potent attack. His system is seen as a hybrid of Bruce Boudreu’s and Hunter’s, and I think the Caps will thrive under it. Eventually.

Oates has no head coaching experience and only a week to instill his system on his new team. With a shortened season the Caps cannot afford any growing pains that can come with a new coach. A bad first month will be much harder to recover from. The Caps went 5-5 in their first ten games under Hunter, and 11-9-1 in their first 20. They did not qualify for the playoffs until the second to last game of the season. A similar stretch this season may prove too steep a hill to climb.

Can Braden Holtby transition into a full-time NHL goalie?

Who can forget the heroics of Braden Holtby in the playoffs last season? Called upon when both Tomas Vokoun and Michal Neuvirth went down with injury, Holtby showed he was more than ready for NHL action with an impressive postseason performance. The Caps hope he can continue playing at the same level this season as a full-time, albeit for a shorter season, NHLer.

Neuvirth returns as well so expect to see a dual goalie system again. Both played during the lockout, Neuvirth in Europe and Holtby in the AHL, so both should be in game shape. One of the Caps’ main weaknesses over the past several seasons now looks to be a real strength for this team with two solid, playoff tested goalies on the roster.

Do the Caps have enough offensive weapons to make up for the loss of Alexander Semin?

In Semin’s best season with the Caps, he scored 40 goals and tallied another 44 assists. As the team hopes for a bit of an offensive revival under Oates, Semin’s goal-scoring capabilities will be sorely missed. The Caps have speed and playmakers, but without him they lack real goal-scoring depth.

The hope is that Mathieu Perrault will develop into a top scorer and Wojtek Wolski will makeup for the rest. A resurgent Ovechkin would also be nice. The three of them together can easily makeup for the absence of the fickle winger.

That’s wishful thinking.

The loss of Semin will takeaway from Ovechkin’s potency. While Semin only scored 49 goals in the past two seasons, he was someone else teams needed to account for. In clutch situations when both players would play together, teams had to be aware of both wingers at all times. Without Semin, teams will continue to key on Ovechkin. He may have been playing well in Russia, but unless Oates can devise a way to get him free from opposing defenses, he will continue struggling to produce at the level Caps fans expect and haven’t seen since 2010.

Perrault has shown great potential, but he remains incredibly inconsistent in his offensive production. I like the addition of Wolski, but I would not be surprised if McPhee is looking for more offense before the trade deadline.

Are injuries already an issue?

The Caps had a scare when they learned Nicklas Backstrom had suffered a “neck injury” while in Russia that reportedly made him feel dizzy. After seeing a concussion expert upon returning, it appears he did not suffer another concussion and should be fine for the start of the season. Still after how long he was sidelined last season, the Caps are likely to be very protective of their star center.

Brooks Laich has not participated in training camp and a report by TSN’s Bob Mckenzie says Laich could miss the first one or two weeks of the season. Laich is a great player whose leadership will be missed while he is away, but his grinding style of play is more effective in the latter months of the season. The Caps of course would prefer to have him in the lineup, but two weeks to start the season is not the end of the world.

Young defenseman Dmitry Orlov also has yet to make his debut at camp due to an upper-body injury and, according to the Washington Examiner, he will not be ready for the start of the regular season. I’m not quite sure how serious this is. No one seems to talk about it, but he’s been out since early December. He played well as a number 6 or 7 last season and I was hoping to see further development this season. Hopefully this injury will not keep him out of the Caps lineup for an extended amount of time.

Predictions?

We will learn everything we need to know about this team in the first month. This season will lack the major ups and downs of a typical 82 game schedule which means a quick start will be crucial. That’s not good news for a team with a new coach and several new key players. The team will likely lean on Ovechkin for offense and Holtby in net as they continue to learn Oates’style. If they can quickly adapt to it they can make a lot of noise in the Eastern Conference.

Unfortunately, the shortened schedule and makeup of this season really hurts a team like the Caps. They have too much talent to underachieve as badly as last season, but not enough time to put it all together and will finish second in the division yet again. They will make the playoffs, but it will not be a deep run.

The Caps will thrive under Oates eventually, but not this season.

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Wizards, Caps Make Moves to Bolster Roster

As most people looked towards the drafts and the future, the Wizards and Capitals made moves to make their teams better in the present.  On Wednesday, the Wizards traded the oft-injured Rashard Lewis and a second round draft pick to New Orleans for center Emeka Okafor and forward Trevor Ariza.  The Capitals, meanwhile, traded center Cody Eakin and a second round draft pick to Dallas for center Mike Ribeiro on Friday, prior to the draft.  Seems like Ted Leonsis might be a little tired of always looking toward the future.

It became clear by the end of the season that Lewis would not be a part of the Wizards’ future plans.  The veteran forward played only 28 games in 2011-2012, but was set to earn $23.7 million next season in the final year of his massive contract.  The Wizards could either pay  $13.7 million to buy him out, or try to dump him on somebody else.  Enter the Hornets.  With the number one overall pick, New Orleans is expected to bring in Anthony Davis, meaning that Okafor was suddenly expendable.  The Hornets needed to free up cap space and playing time for their new star, so they were willing to ship out two starters and take on Lewis’ contract.  The Hornets are expected to buy him out sometime in the next few weeks.  The Wizards, on the other hand, now have two big men in Nene and Okafor, a productive forward in Ariza, a budding star in John Wall, and the number three overall pick in which they can gain some perimeter shooting.  Suddenly, this team does not look so terrible.

Granted, the Wizards still have a long way to go.  They just obtained two starters from a team that won only one more game than the Wizards.  The addition of Okafor and Ariza does not suddenly make this a playoff team.  It will still be an uphill climb to reach the postseason, but the Wizards managed to add to their roster while dumping dead weight.  At the very least, this team is no longer a punch line.

Among all the failed Stanley Cup runs, the Capitals have had one blaring, consistent weakness; they have lacked a true second line center.  With Ribeiro, general manager George McPhee may finally have found his man.  In 2011-2012, Ribeiro had 18 goals and 45 assists in 74 games.  The talented set-up man finally gives the Caps some flexibility at center.  The position does not start and finish with Nicklas Backstrom anymore.  With 11 picks, the most of any team in the NHL, the Caps could afford to throw a pick into the mix.  I think with this return, it was well worth it.

The trade does come with risk, however.  At 32 years old, Ribeiro’s career is undeniably on the downhill.  While his stats have remained consistently high, I hope the transition to Washington will not precipitate a massive fall in production.  He also has only a year left on his contract.  He could potentially walk at the end of the season even if he does well.  I had hoped for a longer term solution at the position, but there is no reason why the Caps couldn’t sign him if he does fit in.

It was an exciting time for DC sports’ fans last week with two big trades.  Both teams pulled off great trades and are better for them.  The Wizards added two legitimate starters to their roster and the Caps may finally have added a vital piece to their championship hopes.  Anybody else excited for the fall?

Caps' Offseason Questions

Another season down and the Caps are again left to wonder what they need to do to build a championship-caliber team. It has become an unfortunate offseason tradition in DC and despite transitioning to a playoff-friendly style of play, the Caps still could not reach the conference finals. Now the building process begins yet again.

The biggest offseason question is of course the coach. Dale Hunter took over the team in November after Bruce Boudreau was fired and, after some regular season struggles, brought the team together for an improbable series win over Boston and a near win over New York. For years the Caps have underachieved in the playoffs, but this year many thought they began to play a style of hockey that lends itself to postseason play. Most experts felt the Caps had no chance against the defending champions, but seven games later the Caps were mobbing Joel Ward as he celebrated a series-clinching overtime goal. Hunter, however, decided not to return as coach electing instead to return to London, Ontario to look over his farm and minor league hockey team. Just when it appeared the Caps had a coaching foundation in place to lead them forward, the carpet was been pulled from under their feet yet again.

General Manager George McPhee has remarked that he is in no rush to select a new coach and that the search could take the majority of the offseason. While I applaud his diligence, I would argue there needs to be more of a sense of urgency. Obviously McPhee should not rush into such an important decision, but how can he build a roster around a coach he does not have? If the Caps want to go to a more defensive style that seems to work in the playoffs, they will need a coach who can do that. I am always wary of building a team without a coach. McPhee’s vision may not be the same as the new coach’s. What’s more, the Caps are also not the only team with a coaching vacancy. Reports are coming in today saying that Bob Hartley, the coach that led Colorado to the Stanley Cup in 2000, will be interviewed by Montreal and Calgary. I’m not saying the Caps should be pursuing Hartley, I’m merely pointing out that good candidates will be taken by other GMs who are not as patient as McPhee.

On the Caps’ roster there are six unrestricted free agents and four restricted free agents. The unrestricted free agents are Keith Aucoin, Jeff Halpern, Mike Knuble, Alexander Semin, Tomas Vokoun, and Dennis Wideman. The restricted free agents are Jay Beagle, John Carlson, Mike Green, and Mathieu Perreault. Perhaps the easiest decision to make will be regarding Vokoun. Sidelined for much of the last quarter of the season, Vokoun watched as Michal Neuvirth and rookie Braden Holtby shouldered the load. After another injury to Neuvirth, Holtby was given an opportunity in the playoffs and he made the most of it, proving he is ready to play full time at the NHL level. With both Neuvirth and Holtby under contract for next season for less than $2 million combined, there’s no need to bring back Vokoun.

It also appears to be the end of Semin’s tenure in DC. Semin’s agent was quoted as saying that his client was not pleased at his role with the team and would look to play elsewhere next season. While Semin tried to back off from his agent’s comments and leave the door open for a return to DC, it’s hard to see either side coming to terms. Semin continues to disappear in the playoffs, showing up only to commit stupid penalties while squandering the talent we all know he possesses. Any questions people have regarding his skill were all answered with his 2 goal performance in the World Championship finals. Perhaps a change of scenery would be best for him to realize his potential in the NHL, if of course, he is not already planning on returning to Russia and playing in the KHL. The problem for the Caps is that there is not a lot of talent out there to replace him with. Most experts have labeled this year’s free agency market as rather weak so it will be hard to find someone with Semin’s skill, but I am not expecting him to Rock the Red next season.

Probably the most intriguing offseason question is the Dennis Wideman/Mike Green debate. Wideman had an all-star season, while Green was limited to less than 50 games in both of the past two seasons. Yet, I expect Wideman will leave and Green will resign. Essentially, the Caps cannot afford to let them go, but they may not be able to afford both. Although both have expressed interest in returning to DC, both will command large contracts. Green is a restricted free agent and the Caps could potentially trade his contract rights or receive draft compensation should he choose to sign elsewhere, whereas Wideman is free to sign wherever he pleases. There is certainly an argument to be made in favor of the all-star, unrestricted veteran over the injury prone, restricted agent, but you cannot discount how different the Caps are when Green is playing up to his potential. Green is a few years younger than Wideman, costs about the same, and the team clearly responds to him. While neither played particularly well in the playoffs, Wideman looked slow and even lost at times. I think McPhee trusts a healthy Green over a healthy Wideman and I expect a very short term (1-2 years) deal for Green.

As for the rest, Beagle and Carlson are slam-dunks. Beagle impressed all year, proving himself to be a competent third line player capable of shutting down top forward lines while still providing offensive pressure. Carlson struggled for much of the regular season, but played incredibly well in the playoffs next to partner Karl Alzner. I do not expect Carlson will be going anywhere.

Aucoin saw significant playing time, but he will likely remain primarily an AHL player. He can be resigned for very little. Knuble will likely not be back. He will turn 40 over the offseason and his last contract of $2 million is far too much for another season. Knuble became a healthy scratch midway through the regular season before cementing himself again into the lineup during the playoffs, but if he is brought back it will be on a one year contract for much less money and for less playing time. It is likely he can find something better elsewhere with leadership and experience always being a valued commodity. Halpern underperformed offensively even by pessimistic standards, but he was brought in to win faceoffs and serve as a penalty killer which he did well. Still, Halpern became a regular scratch in the playoffs, so after making it clear he intends to play next season, it is unlikely he would want to return. While Perreault also became a healthy scratch in the playoffs, I expect he will be back as well. He is inconsistent offensively, but he is a restricted free agent with a qualifying offer set at one-year, $577,500. With such a small contract, it would be worth bringing him back to see if he can develop into a more potent offensive player.

Should Semin and Wideman both leave, the Caps will have some major holes to fill. They will need someone to replace the offensive threat Semin posed to opponents and will of course also need to look into finally bringing in a real second-line center, something this team has lacked for several years. While Dmitry Orlov will continue to develop as a defenseman, the Caps will also likely seek another top four defenseman to replace Wideman and provide an option if Roman Hamrlik continues to struggle. The question, as stated above, is whether there will be players available in a weak free agent market to fix these holes. Having two first round draft picks will help, but as both are middle picks, it is likely the Caps will not find someone who can contribute right away. The Caps may be forced to become a more defensive team simply by not being able to replace the offensive weapons they will lose in the offseason.

Ted's General Managers

With the regular season winding down for both the NBA and NHL, it's safe to say both the Wizards and Capitals have not been as successful as owner Ted Leonsis would have hoped.  The Capitals are still in playoff contention, but they have not performed up to expectations.  Both teams are in need of change, but both have already fired their coaches during the season and now fans are beginning to point their fingers squarely at the general managers.  Leonsis has shown patience with his front office personnel, but is it time for a GM change?

To say that Ernie Grunfeld, current GM of the Wizards, had some massive shoes to fill is an understatement.  Grunfeld was brought in to replace Michael Jordan as president of basketball operations and general manager in 2003.  The team seemed to flourish initially under Grunfeld, however, winning its first playoff series in more than 23 years in the 2004-05 season.  The teamsreturned to the playoffs for 3 straight seasons after that losing each time in the first round to Lebron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers.  Things fell apart when team star Gilbert Arenas began to suffer multiple injuries that consistently kept him out of the lineup.  In 2009, Arenas brought handguns into the locker room in what has become a well chronicled incident.  Since that time, the Wizards have been a national punchline.  While Grunfeld certainly cannot be blamed for Arenas' inexplicable behavior, he has developed a knack for bringing in "knuckle heads."  After Arenas came Andray Blatche in 2005, Nick Young in 2007, and JaVale McGee in 2008, all drafted by Grunfeld and all contributing embarrassing headlines and highlights again and again.

What is more troubling is that the Wiz seem almost no closer to digging themselves out of the hole they have been stuck in since 2009.  In 2010, the Wizards had the 5th pick in the draft.  Grunfeld traded it to Minnesota for Randy Foye and Mike Miller.  At the time, the draft seemed weak at that point so moving the pick seemed a smart move, but the Wizards received Randy Foye and Mike Miller.  Both players had only a year left on their contracts and both left immediately after the 2009-2010 season.  Just one year later the Wizards had nothing to show for a top 5 pick.  In September of 2010, Grunfeld awarded Blatche a 5 year $35 million contract extension that has made the team headache all but untradeable.  Instead of earning that contract, Blatche is out of the lineup at the moment because he is out of shape.  To his credit, Grunfeld knows when he's made a mistake.  Arenas, McGee, and Young are now all someone else's problem and he at least sought to trade Blatche, but this team is still terrible.  The Wizards are currently 12-40 giving them the 2nd worst winning percentage in the league.  John Wall is a great draft pick with superstar potential, but we can't expect him to stick around forever waiting for the team to get its act together.  How long can the Wizards be basement dwellers before Grunfeld is held accountable?

George McPhee, general manager of the Washington Capitals, has had a very different problem; he has been unable to take a team loaded with talent to the next level.  This hasn't always been a problem, in his first season with Washington, the Caps made it to their first and only Stanley Cup Finals.  As the team faced financial issues with a league lockout looming, McPhee orchestrated a "fire sale" in the 2003-04 season unloading the team's veteran talent in exchange for young prospects and draft picks.  The team turned around when they obtained Alexander Ovechkin and have since won four division championships.  Despite being widely described as one of the most talented teams in the league, the Caps have failed to make it past the 2nd round of the playoffs since their conference run in 1998.

Many blamed the team's playoff woes on coach Bruce Boudreau, but the team has continued to struggle after Boudreau was fired in November.  While Dale Hunter's coaching has left much to be desired to say the least, some would say it may be time to find a new GM before we start to think about another new coach.

So are Ted's GMs in trouble?  Well, probably not.  As I said, Leonsis has been incredibly patient with his staff.  In a town haunted by the shadow of trigger happy Daniel Snyder, I believe Leonsis enjoys being the patient counterpart.  The rebuild of the stagnant Capitals' franchise is a remarkable story and Leonsis hopes to rebuild the Wizards along the same lines.  While the Caps have struggled in the playoffs, McPhee has consistenly put together a roster that looks remarkably talented on paper.  The problems are on the ice, not in the office.  Of course he has made his share of mistakes, but you can't really ask for much more from McPhee.  His job is to put together championship calibur rosters and he's done that.  For Grunfeld, the future is a bit more murky.  This is the last year of his contract and frankly you can only blame Arenas for so long.  If Leonsis feels there's a plan in place, then he may not want to upset that by bringing in a new GM, but I'm having a hard time figuring out what that plan is.  You can't just keep pushing the reset button forever.

Capitals Choose to Sit this Trade Deadline Out

The Washington Capitals and General Manager George McPhee decided not to make any moves before yesterday's trade deadline, choosing instead to keep this roster intact with an eye on the future.  While I understand McPhee's caution and desire to keep this core together, there were a few players who really needed to be traded.  Hopefully, we don't look back on this and wish McPhee had been more open to talks.

Let me first clarify my previous article on how the team should approach the deadline.  I realize now it may have appeared I was saying "sell sell sell!!!"  That was not my point.  My point was that there were several players that were not going to be part of this team's future and, with the team struggling and not poised for a deep postseason run, McPhee should be open to possibly moving those players if there was interest.  I certainly did NOT want a giant wholesale (at least not until the offseason).  This would signal to a team only 1 point out of the playoffs, that the organization was moving on.  Not the message you want to send to a team that needs motivation.

Having said that, there are 3 players that McPhee needed to trade.  Both Mike Knuble and Roman Hamrlik seem to have fallen out of favor with head coach Dale Hunter and have become regular scratches.  Sure, they are older (39 and 37 respectively) and may have lost a step in their game, but they still can provide leadership and solid play.  They certainly would have generated a lot of interest from around the league.

Their leadership may ultimately be why McPhee elected to keep them.  Hunter's plan might be to save the two veterans and rest them for the playoffs.  Then, they will be reinserted into the lineup at a time when their veteran leadership would be most needed.  This, however, seems unlikely given the war of words Hunter and Hamrlik have had since Hamrlik's latest struggles.  Also, this team is not coasting to a playoff spot, they need every point they can get.  Rested players aren't very useful if the team doesn't make the playoffs.

And then there's Alex Semin.  Craig Custance of ESPN reported yesterday that Semin would not return to DC when his contract expires at the end of the season.  Why oh why didn't we trade him then?  Semin's struggles and inconsistencies have been well documented over the years.  If chemistry is an issue for the Caps, which it certainly appears to be, then Semin will not be part of the solution.  Semin is extremely talented and, with an expiring contract, there's no real risk to a team looking to add an extra offensive boost.  If Semin really is on his way out the door, then that's probably known around the locker room.  Trading him, therefore, is not a signal that we're throwing in the towel.  Admittedly, this team has struggled offensively without Nicklas Backstrom so perhaps McPhee was worried about losing another offensive weapon, but who says you have to trade Semin for draft picks only?  Maybe he could have added another offensive player.  Don't get me wrong, I'm sure he did his due diligence and asked around to find out what he could possibly get in return for the other Ale.  My problem is that you don't want to see someone with Semin's value walk away for nothing, which, if the reports are true, McPhee may now have done.

I have taken some shots from people who disagree with me over this, especially in regards to Knuble and Hamrlik.  Who says teams have to swap healthy scratches?  What's the point?  Ask yourself this, if you had both Henrik Lundqvist and Tim Thomas as your goalies, you would trade one.  If you had both Tom Brady and Drew Brees as your quarterbacks, you would trade one.  Why?  Because it is stupid to have someone with that much value warming the bench.  Look, there's a difference between Jon Erskine and Hamrlike.  Erskine does not have the talent level to consistently give him a spot on the bench.  He is a 6 or a 7.  Hamrlik has top 4 defensive talent.  Erskine is expected to be a healthy scratch, Hamrlik is not.  A top 4 man sitting in the press box is a waste, it's not good for anyone.  The same goes for Knuble.  He's not a fourth line player, he has value.  If you don't want to use them, then trade them.  Yesterday was one of the quietest deadlines in years because teams complained there were too many buyers and not enough sellers.  If McPhee had come out with Knuble, Hamrlik, and Semin, he would have been able to sell very high.  Now, while Hamrlik is still under contract, Semin and Knuble will both be free agents at the end of the season.  Semin is as good as gone and Knuble has no reason to re-sign here just to be a healthy scratch.

For the most part, I applaud McPhee's caution.  There are numerous examples of deadline deals for rental players that just haven't panned out.  I'm not arguing that we should have traded all of our prospects or draft picks for a few rentals and I'm not arguing we should have sold everyone for peanuts.  All I'm saying is we have two players rotting on the bench who certainly could have generated interest.  We have a player with incredible offensive talent who reportedly has one foot out the door.  There were plenty of teams desperate to make a move.  How many draft picks/prospects/players did we miss out on by not trading players we aren't using?  Are we going to watch Knuble and Semin walk away for nothing?  I hope these are not questions that will end up haunting McPhee.

With Trade Deadline Approaching, Where do the Caps go From Here?

Inconsistency has plagued this Capitals' team all season.  After starting 7-0, the team went 5-9-1, prompting the firing of head coach Bruce Boudreau.  Now with the trade deadline fast approaching, the team's struggles have made it difficult to determine what exactly the Caps should do.  Do they pack it in, sell, and rebuild around their core or make a move to try and make the playoffs and make a run?

As of today, the team is in 9th place, one point out of both 8th place and the division  lead.  After winning their last two games in convincing fashion, it would be easy to say this team is poised to finally achieve their potential and take the division.  This would shoot them up to 3rd place in the conference and give them home-ice in the first round at least.  Before this new two game winning streak, however, the team had a 4 game road trip in which they went 1-3 and were outscored 13-5.  This inconsistency makes General Manager George McPhee's job incredibly difficult.  What I think is clear is that this team has not gelled as McPhee had hoped when he assembled it in the offseason.  Even if they can make the playoffs, I don't see them being able to make a deep run.  This is not to say the Caps should not push for the playoffs, history has shown us that anything can happen.  The organization cannot, however, mortgage the team's future by trading prospects in the hopes that perhaps the team can claw its way into the bottom seed of the playoffs.

The Caps find themselves right now in a gray area in which they are not quite sellers, but not quite buyers.  What's most important is that McPhee must determine who makes up the core of this team.  From there he can recognize what else is needed.  Alexander Ovechkin, of course, is not going anywhere.  Nicklas Backstrom, Marcus Johansson, and Brooks Laich are also part of that forward core.  Troy Brouwer, Jason Chimera, and Matt Hendricks are role players that seem to have thrived thus far in DC and should be kept.  Defensively, Karl Alzner, John Carlson, and Dmitry Orlov are all valuable young members of the blue line.  And of course, in goal is Michal Neuvirth and Braden Holtby.  Difficult decisions must be made regarding everyone else.  Everyone else on this roster should be available, but only at the right price of course.

Among the numerous question marks are Mike Green and Dennis Wideman.  Both have similar playing styles and most likely, McPhee will keep one and sell the other.  I personally believe Wideman is the better fit.  Green has injury concerns as he has missed significant time over the past two seasons and sometimes presents a liability in the defensive zone.  Wideman had an allstar season this year.  The best thing to happen to Green in regards to his future in DC, however, has been his injury.  As the team has struggled, many point to his abscence as the reason.  Wideman is a valuable asset that McPhee may try to use to coax a significant trade, but I think Green should be more expendable.  I don't think either will move until the offseason, but it is a significant question going forward.

In terms of this trade deadline, the Caps have many bigger name players they need to be open to trading including Alexander Semin, Roman Hamrlik, Mike Knuble, Joel Ward, Jeff Schultz, and Tomas Vokoun.  Semin's struggles are well documented and I won't go too far in depth.  Basically, if chemistry is an issue, Semin will not be part of the solution.  He is a major trade asset on the last year of his contract that the Caps should use to obtain the big name center they  have sought for several years now.

Hamrlik has fallen out of favor with coach Hunter and has even taken shots at him through the media.  He needs to go.  It makes zero sense for the team to keep Knuble, who is in the last year of his contract and who has become a consistent healthy scratch.  He still has a lot of leadership value that other playoff hopefuls will want.  Ward has not played well in DC.  His contract here was due in large part to his success last season in the playoffs for Nashville, but his value will be moot if the Caps don't even make it into the postseason.  Schultz may still  have some value thanks to his performance in past seasons, but it is clear he does not have a real place on the team going forward.

As for Vokoun, he has struggled immensely as of late and has been pulled from both of his last 2 starts.  Neuvirth, on the other hand, has played tremendously and led the Caps to their last two wins.  As of right now, who would start for this team in the playoffs?  If the answer is not Vokoun, there's no reason to keep him.

The bottom line is that several players were given shorter contracts as McPhee assembled this team to make a deep run into the playoffs.  If this roster is not going to make that run, then it is not imperative that McPhee keep those short term players.  In fact, wouldn't it be better for McPhee to put a playoff run on the shoulders of his young core?  Wouldn't it bring those players closer together?  It's time for McPhee to think more about his core's future than the implausible short term possibilities of a dysfunctional team.