Inconsistency has plagued this Capitals' team all season. After starting 7-0, the team went 5-9-1, prompting the firing of head coach Bruce Boudreau. Now with the trade deadline fast approaching, the team's struggles have made it difficult to determine what exactly the Caps should do. Do they pack it in, sell, and rebuild around their core or make a move to try and make the playoffs and make a run?
As of today, the team is in 9th place, one point out of both 8th place and the division lead. After winning their last two games in convincing fashion, it would be easy to say this team is poised to finally achieve their potential and take the division. This would shoot them up to 3rd place in the conference and give them home-ice in the first round at least. Before this new two game winning streak, however, the team had a 4 game road trip in which they went 1-3 and were outscored 13-5. This inconsistency makes General Manager George McPhee's job incredibly difficult. What I think is clear is that this team has not gelled as McPhee had hoped when he assembled it in the offseason. Even if they can make the playoffs, I don't see them being able to make a deep run. This is not to say the Caps should not push for the playoffs, history has shown us that anything can happen. The organization cannot, however, mortgage the team's future by trading prospects in the hopes that perhaps the team can claw its way into the bottom seed of the playoffs.
The Caps find themselves right now in a gray area in which they are not quite sellers, but not quite buyers. What's most important is that McPhee must determine who makes up the core of this team. From there he can recognize what else is needed. Alexander Ovechkin, of course, is not going anywhere. Nicklas Backstrom, Marcus Johansson, and Brooks Laich are also part of that forward core. Troy Brouwer, Jason Chimera, and Matt Hendricks are role players that seem to have thrived thus far in DC and should be kept. Defensively, Karl Alzner, John Carlson, and Dmitry Orlov are all valuable young members of the blue line. And of course, in goal is Michal Neuvirth and Braden Holtby. Difficult decisions must be made regarding everyone else. Everyone else on this roster should be available, but only at the right price of course.
Among the numerous question marks are Mike Green and Dennis Wideman. Both have similar playing styles and most likely, McPhee will keep one and sell the other. I personally believe Wideman is the better fit. Green has injury concerns as he has missed significant time over the past two seasons and sometimes presents a liability in the defensive zone. Wideman had an allstar season this year. The best thing to happen to Green in regards to his future in DC, however, has been his injury. As the team has struggled, many point to his abscence as the reason. Wideman is a valuable asset that McPhee may try to use to coax a significant trade, but I think Green should be more expendable. I don't think either will move until the offseason, but it is a significant question going forward.
In terms of this trade deadline, the Caps have many bigger name players they need to be open to trading including Alexander Semin, Roman Hamrlik, Mike Knuble, Joel Ward, Jeff Schultz, and Tomas Vokoun. Semin's struggles are well documented and I won't go too far in depth. Basically, if chemistry is an issue, Semin will not be part of the solution. He is a major trade asset on the last year of his contract that the Caps should use to obtain the big name center they have sought for several years now.
Hamrlik has fallen out of favor with coach Hunter and has even taken shots at him through the media. He needs to go. It makes zero sense for the team to keep Knuble, who is in the last year of his contract and who has become a consistent healthy scratch. He still has a lot of leadership value that other playoff hopefuls will want. Ward has not played well in DC. His contract here was due in large part to his success last season in the playoffs for Nashville, but his value will be moot if the Caps don't even make it into the postseason. Schultz may still have some value thanks to his performance in past seasons, but it is clear he does not have a real place on the team going forward.
As for Vokoun, he has struggled immensely as of late and has been pulled from both of his last 2 starts. Neuvirth, on the other hand, has played tremendously and led the Caps to their last two wins. As of right now, who would start for this team in the playoffs? If the answer is not Vokoun, there's no reason to keep him.
The bottom line is that several players were given shorter contracts as McPhee assembled this team to make a deep run into the playoffs. If this roster is not going to make that run, then it is not imperative that McPhee keep those short term players. In fact, wouldn't it be better for McPhee to put a playoff run on the shoulders of his young core? Wouldn't it bring those players closer together? It's time for McPhee to think more about his core's future than the implausible short term possibilities of a dysfunctional team.
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