Caps have work to do this offseason

Though the sting of the Capitals’ latest playoff collapse may still be fresh, the team must look beyond this season and determine what they need to do to finally bring the Stanley Cup to Washington.

Next season’s salary cap will actually be lower due to the new CBA. As of now, the Caps are about $5.6 million under the $64.3 million cap with eight free agents, five unrestricted, on the roster.

The Caps already had holes in their roster; $5.6 million is not a lot of money to re-sign their key FAs and fill those holes. They will, however, be able to add a little more room with an amnesty buyout.

As part of the new CBA, the Caps are allowed two amnesty buyouts, meaning they can buy out a player’s contract and not have it count towards the salary cap. I expect the Caps will buyout Jeff Schultz. According to Capgeek.com, Schultz will have a cap hit of $2.75 million for next season. That is far too high for a player who does not receive regular playing time, especially when there are several other defensemen to replace him.

The biggest question facing the Caps is whether or not to re-sign Mike Ribeiro. Every other move the Caps make this offseason will be tied to their decision on Ribeiro. The Caps have searched for a second line center for many years, and Ribeiro fit that role nicely with 13 goals and 36 assists in 48 games.

The Caps must also keep in mind prospect center Evgeny Kuznetsov in Russia. The 21 year-old phenom is widely considered one of the best players in the world not currently in the NHL. His contract with Traktor Chelyabinsk of the KHL will expire in 2014 and he has said many times he will play for Washington after that.

With Kuznetsov slated to be the team’s long-term solution on the second line, it would be ideal for the Caps to re-sign Ribeiro for only one or two years, but he has been firm in his stance that he wants a contract of four or five years so as not to move his family again. At 33 years old, he can expect a pay cut from the $5 million he made last season and has said he would be willing to accept less money to stay in DC, but he will still be expensive to sign. Four years and around $3 million is a fairly large gamble for a team that presumably will only need him for one or two years.

Having said that, I would love to see Ribeiro back. After how long it took the Caps to find a second line center, I am reluctant to let him walk away. I am also skeptical of Kuznetsov who has been teasing us for years. If the Caps do buyout Schultz, then they can easily afford to re-sign Ribeiro, but it will depend on the specifics of the contract. He is likely to ask for a no-trade clause which may be a deal breaker for the Caps. I do not anticipate the two sides being able to reach a mutually beneficial agreement and the Caps will once again be in need of a second line center.

Karl Alzner and Marcus Johansson are both restricted free agents. I would expect both to return. Alzner may be a bit more expensive than the Caps would like, but Johansson can be signed relatively cheaply. Both are young and part of the Caps’ long-term plan, especially Alzner as he is one of the team’s best defensemen.

Tomas Kundratek is also a restricted free agent. He provides the team with more defensive depth and I expect him to return as well so long as there is room for him.

Of the team’s four remaining unrestricted free agents, two have already made it clear they will not return. Tom Poti told reporters he would be moving on and Wojtek Wolski signed with Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod of the Kontinental Hockey League. Joey Crabb was sent down to the AHL Hershey midway through last season in order to make room for Mike Green's return from injury. If he were willing to accept a two-way contract, the Caps may consider bringing him back, but I doubt he would. There just is not enough room for him.

The Caps face a much tougher decision with Matt Hendricks. Hendricks is a gritty forward and locker room leader. He made only $800,000 last season, but based on his impact could expect a slight raise as other teams will be willing to pay him more to try and coax him out of Washington.

Should the Caps re-sign Ribeiro, the Caps may not have enough cap room to commit $1 million to a 31 year-old Hendricks. These are the types of players that George McPhee seems to value, however, and I assume he will be re-signed. The only thing that gives me pause is the Caps’ re-signing of Aaron Volpatti. He is younger than Hendricks and is a similar type of player. His extension was a surprise to me and could signal that the team is prepared to move on without Hendricks.

The Rangers revealed two major weaknesses in he Caps. First, they have no scoring depth, and second, they have no mid-level defensive depth.

When Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom produce, the Caps win. When Ovechkin surged in the second half of the season, he brought the team with him all the way to a Southeast Division championship. The top line stopped producing in the playoffs and the Caps were sent packing. To say they simply ran into a hot goalie is an over-simplification of what happened. The Caps have more offensive depth than the Bruins, yet the Bruins have scored ten goals in the first three games of their series with the Rangers. Henrik Lundqvist has looked fantastic and the Bruins are still managing to score.

The problem is that the Caps do not have enough scoring weapons on the top two lines and depend far too much on Ovechkin and Backstrom. The Caps do not have a top line left wing or a secondary scoring threat. They used to depend on Alex Semin on the second line and his departure has left a clear hole in the lineup. George McPhee’s acquisition of Martin Erat was an attempt to fix the problem. The Caps need to decide if Erat can become a legitimate second line weapon and, with Erat’s $4.5 million cap hit, McPhee better hope he can.

Defensively, Alzner, Green, and John Carlson have shown they are a solid top three. Steve Oleksy looks like he can contribute as a four or five, but after him there are not a lot of guys you can depend on as a full-time blue liner. The Caps are defensively top heavy.

John Erskine, Jack Hillen, Tomas Kundratek, and Schultz can all contribute as a six or seven; meaning they provide flexibility in case of injury, but are not dependable as full-time defensemen. Having four of them is too many, especially when there are few players to plug into the four or five spot.

The Caps will hope that Dmitry Orlov will continue to develop and fit into one of those middle spots, but they have too many players who contribute the same thing. Erskine and Hillen are likely not going anywhere. The team likes Kundratek and I expect they will re-sign him. Schutlz, as I explained earlier, is out. Even with Orlov, this team needs mid-level depth.

This is the team’s first offseason with Adam Oates as the head coach so McPhee should make a few moves to bring in players better suited for Oates’ system. Still, I do not see any major free agent signings. I expect the Caps will sign a mid-level defenseman and a veteran center to plug into the second or third line. The Caps trust Brooks Laich will be healthy for next season and they can plug him into the second line if need be, but they will need to bring in another if they do in fact let Ribeiro walk.

If both Schultz and Ribeiro are gone, however, the Caps may have enough room to address the left hole in the top line. Johnasson is good but, let’s be honest, he’s not a top line talent.

The Caps have their work cut out for them this offseason.

For the latest DC sports news, check out csnwashington.com or follow me on Twitter @TheDC_Sportsguy

Capitals Preview: Shortened Season Provides New Challenges

The most baffling work stoppage perhaps in the history of sports finally came to an end Saturday with the NHL and NHLPA’s signing of the “memo of understanding” on Saturday night. Now the Washington Capitals must fit an entire offseason of preparation into one week as they prepare for the season opener on January 19^th in Tampa Bay. Here are the big questions that face this team heading into training camp.

Can Adam Oates instill a successful system quickly?

Adam Oates takes over for Dale Hunter as the third coach for the Caps in the last year. Oates served as an assistant coach in Tampa Bay for the 2009-2010 season and in New Jersey from 2010-2012. He has been universally praised for his offensive acumen, and the hope is that he will be able to revive Alex Ovechkin and the Caps’ potent attack. His system is seen as a hybrid of Bruce Boudreu’s and Hunter’s, and I think the Caps will thrive under it. Eventually.

Oates has no head coaching experience and only a week to instill his system on his new team. With a shortened season the Caps cannot afford any growing pains that can come with a new coach. A bad first month will be much harder to recover from. The Caps went 5-5 in their first ten games under Hunter, and 11-9-1 in their first 20. They did not qualify for the playoffs until the second to last game of the season. A similar stretch this season may prove too steep a hill to climb.

Can Braden Holtby transition into a full-time NHL goalie?

Who can forget the heroics of Braden Holtby in the playoffs last season? Called upon when both Tomas Vokoun and Michal Neuvirth went down with injury, Holtby showed he was more than ready for NHL action with an impressive postseason performance. The Caps hope he can continue playing at the same level this season as a full-time, albeit for a shorter season, NHLer.

Neuvirth returns as well so expect to see a dual goalie system again. Both played during the lockout, Neuvirth in Europe and Holtby in the AHL, so both should be in game shape. One of the Caps’ main weaknesses over the past several seasons now looks to be a real strength for this team with two solid, playoff tested goalies on the roster.

Do the Caps have enough offensive weapons to make up for the loss of Alexander Semin?

In Semin’s best season with the Caps, he scored 40 goals and tallied another 44 assists. As the team hopes for a bit of an offensive revival under Oates, Semin’s goal-scoring capabilities will be sorely missed. The Caps have speed and playmakers, but without him they lack real goal-scoring depth.

The hope is that Mathieu Perrault will develop into a top scorer and Wojtek Wolski will makeup for the rest. A resurgent Ovechkin would also be nice. The three of them together can easily makeup for the absence of the fickle winger.

That’s wishful thinking.

The loss of Semin will takeaway from Ovechkin’s potency. While Semin only scored 49 goals in the past two seasons, he was someone else teams needed to account for. In clutch situations when both players would play together, teams had to be aware of both wingers at all times. Without Semin, teams will continue to key on Ovechkin. He may have been playing well in Russia, but unless Oates can devise a way to get him free from opposing defenses, he will continue struggling to produce at the level Caps fans expect and haven’t seen since 2010.

Perrault has shown great potential, but he remains incredibly inconsistent in his offensive production. I like the addition of Wolski, but I would not be surprised if McPhee is looking for more offense before the trade deadline.

Are injuries already an issue?

The Caps had a scare when they learned Nicklas Backstrom had suffered a “neck injury” while in Russia that reportedly made him feel dizzy. After seeing a concussion expert upon returning, it appears he did not suffer another concussion and should be fine for the start of the season. Still after how long he was sidelined last season, the Caps are likely to be very protective of their star center.

Brooks Laich has not participated in training camp and a report by TSN’s Bob Mckenzie says Laich could miss the first one or two weeks of the season. Laich is a great player whose leadership will be missed while he is away, but his grinding style of play is more effective in the latter months of the season. The Caps of course would prefer to have him in the lineup, but two weeks to start the season is not the end of the world.

Young defenseman Dmitry Orlov also has yet to make his debut at camp due to an upper-body injury and, according to the Washington Examiner, he will not be ready for the start of the regular season. I’m not quite sure how serious this is. No one seems to talk about it, but he’s been out since early December. He played well as a number 6 or 7 last season and I was hoping to see further development this season. Hopefully this injury will not keep him out of the Caps lineup for an extended amount of time.

Predictions?

We will learn everything we need to know about this team in the first month. This season will lack the major ups and downs of a typical 82 game schedule which means a quick start will be crucial. That’s not good news for a team with a new coach and several new key players. The team will likely lean on Ovechkin for offense and Holtby in net as they continue to learn Oates’style. If they can quickly adapt to it they can make a lot of noise in the Eastern Conference.

Unfortunately, the shortened schedule and makeup of this season really hurts a team like the Caps. They have too much talent to underachieve as badly as last season, but not enough time to put it all together and will finish second in the division yet again. They will make the playoffs, but it will not be a deep run.

The Caps will thrive under Oates eventually, but not this season.

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Caps Head Back to DC with Series Tied

Heading into the playoffs, there were a lot of question marks for the Capitals. Would the Caps be able to match Boston's physical play? Could the defense handle Boston's scoring depth? How did the Caps plan to beat Tim Thomas? Would Braden Holtby be able to handle the pressure of his first NHL playoff appearance? Well, heading back to DC, I'd say the Capitals so far have answered all of those questions and now have a chance to take the lead in a series most people gave them no shot of winning.

There is probably no bigger story so far in this series than the performance of Holtby in net. He has allowed only two goals in two overtime games against a Boston team that had the second best offense in the regular season and has a whopping .973 save percentage in the series. His unflappable demeanor was really on display yesterday when he turned in another impressive performance despite giving up the OT winner in game 1. A lot of goalies would have had trouble rebounding from that, but he looked just as cool and calm as always. He tends to give up too many rebounds and trusts too much in his stick, something that contributed to Boston's only goal Sunday, but otherwise I have been more than impressed by his performance. I knew he was good, but I did not think he was this good yet.

Boston has also been unable to take advantage of Holtby's rebounds because of how well the Caps have played defensively. They have been in great position to tap away those rebounds and shot block and it has clearly frustrated Boston's vaunted offense. They have not been pushed off the puck in their own zone, something I was concerned may happen, and they are getting an all out effort by everyone on the ice. Everyone is laying out to block shots, both Marcus Johansson and Jeff Schultz have taken pucks to the head. Even Alex Semin, a player long criticized for not always giving his best effort, contributed about four or five key defensive plays yesterday in OT. When players see someone like Semin going all out, it inspires the rest of the team. Even though he did not contribute to the score sheet yesterday, he was one of the best players on the ice.

The biggest thing the Caps need to improve on is their offense. The team only mustered 56 shots in both games, and that's including OT. There was some criticism of Alex Ovechkin, but I thought he has played well. Playing against the 6 ft 9 Zdeno Chara is a tough matchup, but he has created opportunities and matched him hit for hit. He even had an assist on Troy Brouwer's goal making a great pass to the front of the net. He needs to continue generating what he can and pushing the tempo. The other lines need to pick up the slack. I knew secondary scoring was going to be key, and as a result, Backstrom and Semin are playing on the second line away from Chara's shadow. So far, Backstrom has generated some chances and netted the OT winner yesterday, but the team will need more than 56 shots and a few chances from 8 and 19 to beat Boston.

Besides the offense, the Caps look to be in good shape. They've allowed only two goals despite playing the second best offense in the league and having a rookie goalie. They have matched Boston's physical play and tied up the series. Now, with two games down, three of the last five games are in DC. The Caps need to continue playing great defense to help Holtby, but the best thing they can do to help him is generate more offense. While the Caps have only allowed two, they have only scored two. For both games to come down to OT is putting a lot on Holtby's shoulders, despite how well he has played. Whoever can solve the other team's defense is going to be moving on to the next round.