Though the sting
of the Capitals’ latest playoff collapse may still be fresh, the team must look
beyond this season and determine what they need to do to finally bring the
Stanley Cup to Washington.
Next season’s
salary cap will actually be lower due to the new CBA. As of now, the Caps are
about $5.6 million under the $64.3 million cap with eight free agents, five
unrestricted, on the roster.
The Caps already
had holes in their roster; $5.6 million is not a lot of money to re-sign their
key FAs and fill those holes. They will, however, be able to add a little more
room with an amnesty buyout.
As part of the
new CBA, the Caps are allowed two amnesty buyouts, meaning they can buy out a
player’s contract and not have it count towards the salary cap. I expect the
Caps will buyout Jeff Schultz. According to Capgeek.com, Schultz will have a
cap hit of $2.75 million for next season. That is far too high for a player who
does not receive regular playing time, especially when there are several other
defensemen to replace him.
The biggest
question facing the Caps is whether or not to re-sign Mike Ribeiro. Every other
move the Caps make this offseason will be tied to their decision on Ribeiro.
The Caps have searched for a second line center for many years, and Ribeiro fit
that role nicely with 13 goals and 36 assists in 48 games.
The Caps must
also keep in mind prospect center Evgeny Kuznetsov in Russia. The 21 year-old
phenom is widely considered one of the best players in the world not currently
in the NHL. His contract with Traktor Chelyabinsk of the KHL will expire in
2014 and he has said many times he will play for Washington after that.
With Kuznetsov
slated to be the team’s long-term solution on the second line, it would be
ideal for the Caps to re-sign Ribeiro for only one or two years, but he has
been firm in his stance that he wants a contract of four or five years so as
not to move his family again. At 33 years old, he can expect a pay cut from the
$5 million he made last season and has said he would be willing to accept less
money to stay in DC, but he will still be expensive to sign. Four years and
around $3 million is a fairly large gamble for a team that presumably will only
need him for one or two years.
Having said that, I would love to
see Ribeiro back. After how long it took the Caps to find a second line center,
I am reluctant to let him walk away. I am also skeptical of Kuznetsov who has
been teasing us for years. If the Caps do buyout Schultz, then they can easily
afford to re-sign Ribeiro, but it will depend on the specifics of the contract. He
is likely to ask for a no-trade clause which may be a deal breaker for the
Caps. I do not anticipate the two sides being able to reach a mutually beneficial
agreement and the Caps will once again be in need of a second line center.
Karl Alzner and
Marcus Johansson are both restricted free agents. I would expect both to
return. Alzner may be a bit more expensive than the Caps would like, but
Johansson can be signed relatively cheaply. Both are young and part of the
Caps’ long-term plan, especially Alzner as he is one of the team’s best
defensemen.
Tomas Kundratek
is also a restricted free agent. He provides the team with more defensive
depth and I expect him to return as well so long as there is room for him.
Of the team’s
four remaining unrestricted free agents, two have already made it clear they
will not return. Tom Poti told reporters he would be moving on and Wojtek
Wolski signed with Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod of the Kontinental Hockey League.
Joey Crabb was sent down to the AHL Hershey midway through last season in order
to make room for Mike Green's return from injury. If he were willing to
accept a two-way contract, the Caps may consider bringing him back, but I doubt
he would. There just is not enough room for him.
The Caps face a
much tougher decision with Matt Hendricks. Hendricks is a gritty forward and
locker room leader. He made only $800,000 last season, but based on his impact
could expect a slight raise as other teams will be willing to pay him more to
try and coax him out of Washington.
Should the Caps
re-sign Ribeiro, the Caps may not have enough cap room to commit $1 million to
a 31 year-old Hendricks. These are the types of players that George McPhee
seems to value, however, and I assume he will be re-signed. The only thing that
gives me pause is the Caps’ re-signing of Aaron Volpatti. He is younger than
Hendricks and is a similar type of player. His extension was a surprise to me
and could signal that the team is prepared to move on without Hendricks.
The Rangers
revealed two major weaknesses in he Caps. First, they have no scoring depth,
and second, they have no mid-level defensive depth.
When Ovechkin and
Nicklas Backstrom produce, the Caps win. When Ovechkin surged in the second
half of the season, he brought the team with him all the way to a Southeast
Division championship. The top line stopped producing in the playoffs and the
Caps were sent packing. To say they simply ran into a hot goalie is an
over-simplification of what happened. The Caps have more offensive depth than
the Bruins, yet the Bruins have scored ten goals in the first three games of
their series with the Rangers. Henrik Lundqvist has looked fantastic and the Bruins
are still managing to score.
The problem is
that the Caps do not have enough scoring weapons on the top two lines and
depend far too much on Ovechkin and Backstrom. The Caps do not have a top line
left wing or a secondary scoring threat. They used to depend on Alex Semin on
the second line and his departure has left a clear hole in the lineup. George
McPhee’s acquisition of Martin Erat was an attempt to fix the problem. The Caps
need to decide if Erat can become a legitimate second line weapon and, with Erat’s
$4.5 million cap hit, McPhee better hope he can.
Defensively,
Alzner, Green, and John Carlson have shown they are a solid top three.
Steve Oleksy looks like he can contribute as a four or five, but after him
there are not a lot of guys you can depend on as a full-time blue liner. The
Caps are defensively top heavy.
John Erskine,
Jack Hillen, Tomas Kundratek, and Schultz can all contribute as a six or seven;
meaning they provide flexibility in case of injury, but are not dependable as
full-time defensemen. Having four of them is too many, especially when there
are few players to plug into the four or five spot.
The Caps will
hope that Dmitry Orlov will continue to develop and fit into one of those
middle spots, but they have too many players who contribute the same thing. Erskine and
Hillen are likely not going anywhere. The team likes Kundratek and I expect
they will re-sign him. Schutlz, as I explained earlier, is out. Even with Orlov, this team needs mid-level depth.
This is the team’s
first offseason with Adam Oates as the head coach so McPhee should make a few
moves to bring in players better suited for Oates’ system. Still, I do not see
any major free agent signings. I expect the Caps will sign a mid-level defenseman
and a veteran center to plug into the second or third line. The Caps trust
Brooks Laich will be healthy for next season and they can plug him into the
second line if need be, but they will need to bring in another if they do in
fact let Ribeiro walk.
If both Schultz and
Ribeiro are gone, however, the Caps may have enough room to address the left
hole in the top line. Johnasson is good but, let’s be honest, he’s not a top
line talent.
The Caps have their work cut out for them this offseason.
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