Caps' Offseason Questions

Another season down and the Caps are again left to wonder what they need to do to build a championship-caliber team. It has become an unfortunate offseason tradition in DC and despite transitioning to a playoff-friendly style of play, the Caps still could not reach the conference finals. Now the building process begins yet again.

The biggest offseason question is of course the coach. Dale Hunter took over the team in November after Bruce Boudreau was fired and, after some regular season struggles, brought the team together for an improbable series win over Boston and a near win over New York. For years the Caps have underachieved in the playoffs, but this year many thought they began to play a style of hockey that lends itself to postseason play. Most experts felt the Caps had no chance against the defending champions, but seven games later the Caps were mobbing Joel Ward as he celebrated a series-clinching overtime goal. Hunter, however, decided not to return as coach electing instead to return to London, Ontario to look over his farm and minor league hockey team. Just when it appeared the Caps had a coaching foundation in place to lead them forward, the carpet was been pulled from under their feet yet again.

General Manager George McPhee has remarked that he is in no rush to select a new coach and that the search could take the majority of the offseason. While I applaud his diligence, I would argue there needs to be more of a sense of urgency. Obviously McPhee should not rush into such an important decision, but how can he build a roster around a coach he does not have? If the Caps want to go to a more defensive style that seems to work in the playoffs, they will need a coach who can do that. I am always wary of building a team without a coach. McPhee’s vision may not be the same as the new coach’s. What’s more, the Caps are also not the only team with a coaching vacancy. Reports are coming in today saying that Bob Hartley, the coach that led Colorado to the Stanley Cup in 2000, will be interviewed by Montreal and Calgary. I’m not saying the Caps should be pursuing Hartley, I’m merely pointing out that good candidates will be taken by other GMs who are not as patient as McPhee.

On the Caps’ roster there are six unrestricted free agents and four restricted free agents. The unrestricted free agents are Keith Aucoin, Jeff Halpern, Mike Knuble, Alexander Semin, Tomas Vokoun, and Dennis Wideman. The restricted free agents are Jay Beagle, John Carlson, Mike Green, and Mathieu Perreault. Perhaps the easiest decision to make will be regarding Vokoun. Sidelined for much of the last quarter of the season, Vokoun watched as Michal Neuvirth and rookie Braden Holtby shouldered the load. After another injury to Neuvirth, Holtby was given an opportunity in the playoffs and he made the most of it, proving he is ready to play full time at the NHL level. With both Neuvirth and Holtby under contract for next season for less than $2 million combined, there’s no need to bring back Vokoun.

It also appears to be the end of Semin’s tenure in DC. Semin’s agent was quoted as saying that his client was not pleased at his role with the team and would look to play elsewhere next season. While Semin tried to back off from his agent’s comments and leave the door open for a return to DC, it’s hard to see either side coming to terms. Semin continues to disappear in the playoffs, showing up only to commit stupid penalties while squandering the talent we all know he possesses. Any questions people have regarding his skill were all answered with his 2 goal performance in the World Championship finals. Perhaps a change of scenery would be best for him to realize his potential in the NHL, if of course, he is not already planning on returning to Russia and playing in the KHL. The problem for the Caps is that there is not a lot of talent out there to replace him with. Most experts have labeled this year’s free agency market as rather weak so it will be hard to find someone with Semin’s skill, but I am not expecting him to Rock the Red next season.

Probably the most intriguing offseason question is the Dennis Wideman/Mike Green debate. Wideman had an all-star season, while Green was limited to less than 50 games in both of the past two seasons. Yet, I expect Wideman will leave and Green will resign. Essentially, the Caps cannot afford to let them go, but they may not be able to afford both. Although both have expressed interest in returning to DC, both will command large contracts. Green is a restricted free agent and the Caps could potentially trade his contract rights or receive draft compensation should he choose to sign elsewhere, whereas Wideman is free to sign wherever he pleases. There is certainly an argument to be made in favor of the all-star, unrestricted veteran over the injury prone, restricted agent, but you cannot discount how different the Caps are when Green is playing up to his potential. Green is a few years younger than Wideman, costs about the same, and the team clearly responds to him. While neither played particularly well in the playoffs, Wideman looked slow and even lost at times. I think McPhee trusts a healthy Green over a healthy Wideman and I expect a very short term (1-2 years) deal for Green.

As for the rest, Beagle and Carlson are slam-dunks. Beagle impressed all year, proving himself to be a competent third line player capable of shutting down top forward lines while still providing offensive pressure. Carlson struggled for much of the regular season, but played incredibly well in the playoffs next to partner Karl Alzner. I do not expect Carlson will be going anywhere.

Aucoin saw significant playing time, but he will likely remain primarily an AHL player. He can be resigned for very little. Knuble will likely not be back. He will turn 40 over the offseason and his last contract of $2 million is far too much for another season. Knuble became a healthy scratch midway through the regular season before cementing himself again into the lineup during the playoffs, but if he is brought back it will be on a one year contract for much less money and for less playing time. It is likely he can find something better elsewhere with leadership and experience always being a valued commodity. Halpern underperformed offensively even by pessimistic standards, but he was brought in to win faceoffs and serve as a penalty killer which he did well. Still, Halpern became a regular scratch in the playoffs, so after making it clear he intends to play next season, it is unlikely he would want to return. While Perreault also became a healthy scratch in the playoffs, I expect he will be back as well. He is inconsistent offensively, but he is a restricted free agent with a qualifying offer set at one-year, $577,500. With such a small contract, it would be worth bringing him back to see if he can develop into a more potent offensive player.

Should Semin and Wideman both leave, the Caps will have some major holes to fill. They will need someone to replace the offensive threat Semin posed to opponents and will of course also need to look into finally bringing in a real second-line center, something this team has lacked for several years. While Dmitry Orlov will continue to develop as a defenseman, the Caps will also likely seek another top four defenseman to replace Wideman and provide an option if Roman Hamrlik continues to struggle. The question, as stated above, is whether there will be players available in a weak free agent market to fix these holes. Having two first round draft picks will help, but as both are middle picks, it is likely the Caps will not find someone who can contribute right away. The Caps may be forced to become a more defensive team simply by not being able to replace the offensive weapons they will lose in the offseason.