Caps Struggling to Start the Season

Through the lockout, all the Washington Capitals wanted to do was to play hockey. All they want now is to go back to the lockout.

The young season has not been kind to the Caps who, after Sunday’s loss to Pittsburgh, have stumbled to a 2-6-1 record. With a very short camp and a new coach, the Caps were likely to struggle to start the season, but the transition has been harder than many expected and have left the team searching for answers.

So what’s gone wrong so far? A little bit of everything.

The Caps thought they were set in goal with both Braden Holtby and Michal Neuvirth, but at its best the goaltending has been inconsistent. Holtby, last season’s clutch performer has so far looked anything but. In four games, he has a whopping 4.52 GAA. He has shown none of the poise and focus of last season and his play has reflected that. Neuvirth has been the stronger of the two by far, but his mostly-solid performance has been marred by soft goals.

It is hard to put too much blame on the goalies, however, because neither is getting a lot of help. Defensively, the Caps have been a mess. Bad turnovers, bad penalties, and miscommunications have been prevalent especially from John Carlson.  Carlson has been on the ice for the vast majority of goals the team has allowed.  He has looked sluggish and out of sync with the rest of the team.  While the Caps have several bodies on defense, they have few top four defensemen.  So while Carlson has been terrible, he keeps getting top minutes; 22:52 per game, second highest on the team behind only Mike Green.

Offensively, the Caps just are not scoring. They rank 25^th in goals per game. They are creating good chances and great pressure, but that just has not translated into more scoring. Alexander Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Mike Green have five goals combined.  Alexander Semin may have become a punchline at the end of his tenure in DC, but he did provide the Caps with another weapon other teams had to account for.  He was a skilled winger capable of producing pionts and taking pressure off the other stars.  The Caps are missing his presence more than they expected.  They are getting secondary scoring from players like Joel Ward and Mike Ribeiro, but they need their stars to start producing.

More than anything else, it has been the mental mistakes that have hurt this team. The Caps are ranked 21^stin penalty minutes and 26^th in penalty kills. They have gotten off to poor starts and have collapsed at the end of games. When a team transitions to a new coach, these mental mistakes can happen because the players are thinking too hard. Rather than instinctively knowing what to do, players have to stop and think and that split second can mean everything.

When the Capitals have managed to put together a solid effort, you can see the makings of a good team. When they finally figure things out, this team will be much better. It is not time yet to panic in DC.

While things may not be as dire as the record may suggest that’s not to say Oates has done everything right; he’s made his share of mistakes.

Knowing what a burden the transition was going to be for the team with the abbreviated training camp, it was Oates’ responsibility to try and make that transition as seamless as possible. Moving Ovechkin from the left, where he has played his entire life, to the right while teaching him a new system in a 6-day training camp was overly-ambitious. I like the idea of trying him on the right, but that will be something to try next season after Ovechkin has a summer to get used to it.

The Caps thought they may have an advantage coming out of the lockout because Backstrom and Ovechkin had been playing with each other in Russia, but Ovechkin was playing left wing in Russia.  By switching Ovechkin to the right, you have negated whatever chemistry and familiarity the pair had built with one another.

Now Backstrom and Ovechkin are not even on the same line and Oates has struggled to find a combination that produces. In his tinkering, Oates tried for a time to match Ovechkin with Jay Beagle and Joey Crabb. This was a disaster from the start.

The season has been condensed in order to get as many games as possible in between now and April, making conditioning a major factor. It is important therefore for the team to be able to roll four lines to prevent fatigue. Spreading the grinders and energy players with the stars can bring a new energy to some of the stars and keep each line fresh. Matching Ovechkin with Beagle and Crabb, however, puts far too much pressure on Ovechkin’s shoulders. For a player who has been struggling to produce and has been criticized for trying to do too much at times, why would you put him on a line with no other offensive playmakers? With all due respect to Beagle and Crabb, this line forces Ovechkin to try and do everything himself.

The biggest problem facing the Caps now is time. If and when they finally adapt to Oates’ system, will they have dug themselves a hole they cannot get out of? Of all the seasons to have new coach, this is about as unfortunate as you can get.

When Dale Hunter took over mid-season for the Caps last year, the team lost six of their first 11 games and that was after losing 10 of their previous 15. The difference was that the Caps still had half a season left to turn things around.

It may not be time to panic, but the clock is ticking. The Caps need points and they need them now.

For the latest DC sports news, follow me on Twitter @TheDC_Sportsguy

Capitals Preview: Shortened Season Provides New Challenges

The most baffling work stoppage perhaps in the history of sports finally came to an end Saturday with the NHL and NHLPA’s signing of the “memo of understanding” on Saturday night. Now the Washington Capitals must fit an entire offseason of preparation into one week as they prepare for the season opener on January 19^th in Tampa Bay. Here are the big questions that face this team heading into training camp.

Can Adam Oates instill a successful system quickly?

Adam Oates takes over for Dale Hunter as the third coach for the Caps in the last year. Oates served as an assistant coach in Tampa Bay for the 2009-2010 season and in New Jersey from 2010-2012. He has been universally praised for his offensive acumen, and the hope is that he will be able to revive Alex Ovechkin and the Caps’ potent attack. His system is seen as a hybrid of Bruce Boudreu’s and Hunter’s, and I think the Caps will thrive under it. Eventually.

Oates has no head coaching experience and only a week to instill his system on his new team. With a shortened season the Caps cannot afford any growing pains that can come with a new coach. A bad first month will be much harder to recover from. The Caps went 5-5 in their first ten games under Hunter, and 11-9-1 in their first 20. They did not qualify for the playoffs until the second to last game of the season. A similar stretch this season may prove too steep a hill to climb.

Can Braden Holtby transition into a full-time NHL goalie?

Who can forget the heroics of Braden Holtby in the playoffs last season? Called upon when both Tomas Vokoun and Michal Neuvirth went down with injury, Holtby showed he was more than ready for NHL action with an impressive postseason performance. The Caps hope he can continue playing at the same level this season as a full-time, albeit for a shorter season, NHLer.

Neuvirth returns as well so expect to see a dual goalie system again. Both played during the lockout, Neuvirth in Europe and Holtby in the AHL, so both should be in game shape. One of the Caps’ main weaknesses over the past several seasons now looks to be a real strength for this team with two solid, playoff tested goalies on the roster.

Do the Caps have enough offensive weapons to make up for the loss of Alexander Semin?

In Semin’s best season with the Caps, he scored 40 goals and tallied another 44 assists. As the team hopes for a bit of an offensive revival under Oates, Semin’s goal-scoring capabilities will be sorely missed. The Caps have speed and playmakers, but without him they lack real goal-scoring depth.

The hope is that Mathieu Perrault will develop into a top scorer and Wojtek Wolski will makeup for the rest. A resurgent Ovechkin would also be nice. The three of them together can easily makeup for the absence of the fickle winger.

That’s wishful thinking.

The loss of Semin will takeaway from Ovechkin’s potency. While Semin only scored 49 goals in the past two seasons, he was someone else teams needed to account for. In clutch situations when both players would play together, teams had to be aware of both wingers at all times. Without Semin, teams will continue to key on Ovechkin. He may have been playing well in Russia, but unless Oates can devise a way to get him free from opposing defenses, he will continue struggling to produce at the level Caps fans expect and haven’t seen since 2010.

Perrault has shown great potential, but he remains incredibly inconsistent in his offensive production. I like the addition of Wolski, but I would not be surprised if McPhee is looking for more offense before the trade deadline.

Are injuries already an issue?

The Caps had a scare when they learned Nicklas Backstrom had suffered a “neck injury” while in Russia that reportedly made him feel dizzy. After seeing a concussion expert upon returning, it appears he did not suffer another concussion and should be fine for the start of the season. Still after how long he was sidelined last season, the Caps are likely to be very protective of their star center.

Brooks Laich has not participated in training camp and a report by TSN’s Bob Mckenzie says Laich could miss the first one or two weeks of the season. Laich is a great player whose leadership will be missed while he is away, but his grinding style of play is more effective in the latter months of the season. The Caps of course would prefer to have him in the lineup, but two weeks to start the season is not the end of the world.

Young defenseman Dmitry Orlov also has yet to make his debut at camp due to an upper-body injury and, according to the Washington Examiner, he will not be ready for the start of the regular season. I’m not quite sure how serious this is. No one seems to talk about it, but he’s been out since early December. He played well as a number 6 or 7 last season and I was hoping to see further development this season. Hopefully this injury will not keep him out of the Caps lineup for an extended amount of time.

Predictions?

We will learn everything we need to know about this team in the first month. This season will lack the major ups and downs of a typical 82 game schedule which means a quick start will be crucial. That’s not good news for a team with a new coach and several new key players. The team will likely lean on Ovechkin for offense and Holtby in net as they continue to learn Oates’style. If they can quickly adapt to it they can make a lot of noise in the Eastern Conference.

Unfortunately, the shortened schedule and makeup of this season really hurts a team like the Caps. They have too much talent to underachieve as badly as last season, but not enough time to put it all together and will finish second in the division yet again. They will make the playoffs, but it will not be a deep run.

The Caps will thrive under Oates eventually, but not this season.

For the latest DC sports news, follow me on Twitter @TheDC_Sportsguy

Semin Looks for Fresh Start in Carolina

The Carolina Hurricanes signed free agent Alexander Semin to a one-year, $7 million contract last week and officially ended his tenure in Washington.  Semin has served as a divisive figure this offseason as fans debated whether his immense talent was worth the baggage.  Carolina finally closed that debate.

“Sasha”, as he was affectionately known, was drafted by the Capitals in 2002 and proceeded to record 197 goals and 211 assists in 469 games.  In his time in the District, he dazzled fans with his stick handling skills and a blistering shot, but he was never able to shake the criticism that followed him over his effort and attitude.  Semin routinely disappeared during the playoffs much to the chagrin of Washington fans who continually saw their team struggle in the postseason.  In 2012 Semin recorded only four points in the playoffs, and only two assists in seven games against the Rangers.  As the rest of the team committed to coach Dale Hunter’s defensive-minded style, Semin instead complained of his reduced role.

Semin also does not have the ability to impact a game outside of the score sheet as former teammate Alexander Ovechkin.  Even if a team can manage to keep Ovechkin out of the box score, he always seems to make an impact whether through a big hit, drawing defensemen to him, etc.  He can carry the team on his shoulders; the same cannot be said of Sasha.

And let’s not forget the infamous slap fight Mark Staal.  If you have never seen it, youtube it; it’s worth the watch.

A fresh start is what both the Capitals and Semin needed.  While his talent demands a large contract, the questions surrounding him and lack of production reached a point that made him simply too expensive to keep.  This was true last year and George McPhee should have looked to trade him, but no doubt Semin’s potential is what kept him here so long.  Regardless, the Caps could no longer pay $6-7 million for a scorer they could not rely on in the playoffs.

From Semin’s perspective, a new team and system may reignite the passion he seemed to lack in DC.  After struggling in the playoffs, Semin rebounded with a two goal performance in the World finals for team Russia, helping them secure gold.  I honestly believe he would feel more comfortable in the KHL where he would be paid more and could sign for longer than a single year, but he chose to remain in the NHL for at least one more year.  Despite the negative scrutiny that has surrounded him over the past few weeks, he gave the Caps a lot of great moments and we should all wish him the best at his new team.  I just wish it was somewhere outside of the division….

Caps Head Back to DC with Series Tied

Heading into the playoffs, there were a lot of question marks for the Capitals. Would the Caps be able to match Boston's physical play? Could the defense handle Boston's scoring depth? How did the Caps plan to beat Tim Thomas? Would Braden Holtby be able to handle the pressure of his first NHL playoff appearance? Well, heading back to DC, I'd say the Capitals so far have answered all of those questions and now have a chance to take the lead in a series most people gave them no shot of winning.

There is probably no bigger story so far in this series than the performance of Holtby in net. He has allowed only two goals in two overtime games against a Boston team that had the second best offense in the regular season and has a whopping .973 save percentage in the series. His unflappable demeanor was really on display yesterday when he turned in another impressive performance despite giving up the OT winner in game 1. A lot of goalies would have had trouble rebounding from that, but he looked just as cool and calm as always. He tends to give up too many rebounds and trusts too much in his stick, something that contributed to Boston's only goal Sunday, but otherwise I have been more than impressed by his performance. I knew he was good, but I did not think he was this good yet.

Boston has also been unable to take advantage of Holtby's rebounds because of how well the Caps have played defensively. They have been in great position to tap away those rebounds and shot block and it has clearly frustrated Boston's vaunted offense. They have not been pushed off the puck in their own zone, something I was concerned may happen, and they are getting an all out effort by everyone on the ice. Everyone is laying out to block shots, both Marcus Johansson and Jeff Schultz have taken pucks to the head. Even Alex Semin, a player long criticized for not always giving his best effort, contributed about four or five key defensive plays yesterday in OT. When players see someone like Semin going all out, it inspires the rest of the team. Even though he did not contribute to the score sheet yesterday, he was one of the best players on the ice.

The biggest thing the Caps need to improve on is their offense. The team only mustered 56 shots in both games, and that's including OT. There was some criticism of Alex Ovechkin, but I thought he has played well. Playing against the 6 ft 9 Zdeno Chara is a tough matchup, but he has created opportunities and matched him hit for hit. He even had an assist on Troy Brouwer's goal making a great pass to the front of the net. He needs to continue generating what he can and pushing the tempo. The other lines need to pick up the slack. I knew secondary scoring was going to be key, and as a result, Backstrom and Semin are playing on the second line away from Chara's shadow. So far, Backstrom has generated some chances and netted the OT winner yesterday, but the team will need more than 56 shots and a few chances from 8 and 19 to beat Boston.

Besides the offense, the Caps look to be in good shape. They've allowed only two goals despite playing the second best offense in the league and having a rookie goalie. They have matched Boston's physical play and tied up the series. Now, with two games down, three of the last five games are in DC. The Caps need to continue playing great defense to help Holtby, but the best thing they can do to help him is generate more offense. While the Caps have only allowed two, they have only scored two. For both games to come down to OT is putting a lot on Holtby's shoulders, despite how well he has played. Whoever can solve the other team's defense is going to be moving on to the next round.

Capitals Choose to Sit this Trade Deadline Out

The Washington Capitals and General Manager George McPhee decided not to make any moves before yesterday's trade deadline, choosing instead to keep this roster intact with an eye on the future.  While I understand McPhee's caution and desire to keep this core together, there were a few players who really needed to be traded.  Hopefully, we don't look back on this and wish McPhee had been more open to talks.

Let me first clarify my previous article on how the team should approach the deadline.  I realize now it may have appeared I was saying "sell sell sell!!!"  That was not my point.  My point was that there were several players that were not going to be part of this team's future and, with the team struggling and not poised for a deep postseason run, McPhee should be open to possibly moving those players if there was interest.  I certainly did NOT want a giant wholesale (at least not until the offseason).  This would signal to a team only 1 point out of the playoffs, that the organization was moving on.  Not the message you want to send to a team that needs motivation.

Having said that, there are 3 players that McPhee needed to trade.  Both Mike Knuble and Roman Hamrlik seem to have fallen out of favor with head coach Dale Hunter and have become regular scratches.  Sure, they are older (39 and 37 respectively) and may have lost a step in their game, but they still can provide leadership and solid play.  They certainly would have generated a lot of interest from around the league.

Their leadership may ultimately be why McPhee elected to keep them.  Hunter's plan might be to save the two veterans and rest them for the playoffs.  Then, they will be reinserted into the lineup at a time when their veteran leadership would be most needed.  This, however, seems unlikely given the war of words Hunter and Hamrlik have had since Hamrlik's latest struggles.  Also, this team is not coasting to a playoff spot, they need every point they can get.  Rested players aren't very useful if the team doesn't make the playoffs.

And then there's Alex Semin.  Craig Custance of ESPN reported yesterday that Semin would not return to DC when his contract expires at the end of the season.  Why oh why didn't we trade him then?  Semin's struggles and inconsistencies have been well documented over the years.  If chemistry is an issue for the Caps, which it certainly appears to be, then Semin will not be part of the solution.  Semin is extremely talented and, with an expiring contract, there's no real risk to a team looking to add an extra offensive boost.  If Semin really is on his way out the door, then that's probably known around the locker room.  Trading him, therefore, is not a signal that we're throwing in the towel.  Admittedly, this team has struggled offensively without Nicklas Backstrom so perhaps McPhee was worried about losing another offensive weapon, but who says you have to trade Semin for draft picks only?  Maybe he could have added another offensive player.  Don't get me wrong, I'm sure he did his due diligence and asked around to find out what he could possibly get in return for the other Ale.  My problem is that you don't want to see someone with Semin's value walk away for nothing, which, if the reports are true, McPhee may now have done.

I have taken some shots from people who disagree with me over this, especially in regards to Knuble and Hamrlik.  Who says teams have to swap healthy scratches?  What's the point?  Ask yourself this, if you had both Henrik Lundqvist and Tim Thomas as your goalies, you would trade one.  If you had both Tom Brady and Drew Brees as your quarterbacks, you would trade one.  Why?  Because it is stupid to have someone with that much value warming the bench.  Look, there's a difference between Jon Erskine and Hamrlike.  Erskine does not have the talent level to consistently give him a spot on the bench.  He is a 6 or a 7.  Hamrlik has top 4 defensive talent.  Erskine is expected to be a healthy scratch, Hamrlik is not.  A top 4 man sitting in the press box is a waste, it's not good for anyone.  The same goes for Knuble.  He's not a fourth line player, he has value.  If you don't want to use them, then trade them.  Yesterday was one of the quietest deadlines in years because teams complained there were too many buyers and not enough sellers.  If McPhee had come out with Knuble, Hamrlik, and Semin, he would have been able to sell very high.  Now, while Hamrlik is still under contract, Semin and Knuble will both be free agents at the end of the season.  Semin is as good as gone and Knuble has no reason to re-sign here just to be a healthy scratch.

For the most part, I applaud McPhee's caution.  There are numerous examples of deadline deals for rental players that just haven't panned out.  I'm not arguing that we should have traded all of our prospects or draft picks for a few rentals and I'm not arguing we should have sold everyone for peanuts.  All I'm saying is we have two players rotting on the bench who certainly could have generated interest.  We have a player with incredible offensive talent who reportedly has one foot out the door.  There were plenty of teams desperate to make a move.  How many draft picks/prospects/players did we miss out on by not trading players we aren't using?  Are we going to watch Knuble and Semin walk away for nothing?  I hope these are not questions that will end up haunting McPhee.