Showing posts with label Washington Capitals. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Washington Capitals. Show all posts

Thursday, October 17, 2013

Adam Oates' Line Combinations Contributing to the Washington Capitals' Struggles

Despite having a full offseason and training camp, it has been another slow start for the Washington Capitals. A major reason for their 1-4 record are the mistakes head coach Adam Oates is making with his line combinations. To read a full analysis on these lines, click here.

For the latest DC sports news, follow me on Twitter @TheDC_Sportsguy

Monday, October 7, 2013

Time for Braden Holtby to Get Past His Mistakes

Braden Holtby has had another rough start this season. Will he ever get past the mistakes to become one of the NHL's elite? Click here for the full story.

For more DC sports news, follow me on Twitter @TheDC_Sportsguy

Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Tom Wilson is Quickly Earning a Shot with the Washington Capitals

Tom Wilson is making a name for himself in camp this summer. Will he make the roster? Click here for the whole story.

For more DC sports news, follow me on Twitter @TheDC_Sportsguy

Thursday, May 23, 2013

Caps have work to do this offseason

Though the sting of the Capitals’ latest playoff collapse may still be fresh, the team must look beyond this season and determine what they need to do to finally bring the Stanley Cup to Washington.

Next season’s salary cap will actually be lower due to the new CBA. As of now, the Caps are about $5.6 million under the $64.3 million cap with eight free agents, five unrestricted, on the roster.

The Caps already had holes in their roster; $5.6 million is not a lot of money to re-sign their key FAs and fill those holes. They will, however, be able to add a little more room with an amnesty buyout.

As part of the new CBA, the Caps are allowed two amnesty buyouts, meaning they can buy out a player’s contract and not have it count towards the salary cap. I expect the Caps will buyout Jeff Schultz. According to Capgeek.com, Schultz will have a cap hit of $2.75 million for next season. That is far too high for a player who does not receive regular playing time, especially when there are several other defensemen to replace him.

The biggest question facing the Caps is whether or not to re-sign Mike Ribeiro. Every other move the Caps make this offseason will be tied to their decision on Ribeiro. The Caps have searched for a second line center for many years, and Ribeiro fit that role nicely with 13 goals and 36 assists in 48 games.

The Caps must also keep in mind prospect center Evgeny Kuznetsov in Russia. The 21 year-old phenom is widely considered one of the best players in the world not currently in the NHL. His contract with Traktor Chelyabinsk of the KHL will expire in 2014 and he has said many times he will play for Washington after that.

With Kuznetsov slated to be the team’s long-term solution on the second line, it would be ideal for the Caps to re-sign Ribeiro for only one or two years, but he has been firm in his stance that he wants a contract of four or five years so as not to move his family again. At 33 years old, he can expect a pay cut from the $5 million he made last season and has said he would be willing to accept less money to stay in DC, but he will still be expensive to sign. Four years and around $3 million is a fairly large gamble for a team that presumably will only need him for one or two years.

Having said that, I would love to see Ribeiro back. After how long it took the Caps to find a second line center, I am reluctant to let him walk away. I am also skeptical of Kuznetsov who has been teasing us for years. If the Caps do buyout Schultz, then they can easily afford to re-sign Ribeiro, but it will depend on the specifics of the contract. He is likely to ask for a no-trade clause which may be a deal breaker for the Caps. I do not anticipate the two sides being able to reach a mutually beneficial agreement and the Caps will once again be in need of a second line center.

Karl Alzner and Marcus Johansson are both restricted free agents. I would expect both to return. Alzner may be a bit more expensive than the Caps would like, but Johansson can be signed relatively cheaply. Both are young and part of the Caps’ long-term plan, especially Alzner as he is one of the team’s best defensemen.

Tomas Kundratek is also a restricted free agent. He provides the team with more defensive depth and I expect him to return as well so long as there is room for him.

Of the team’s four remaining unrestricted free agents, two have already made it clear they will not return. Tom Poti told reporters he would be moving on and Wojtek Wolski signed with Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod of the Kontinental Hockey League. Joey Crabb was sent down to the AHL Hershey midway through last season in order to make room for Mike Green's return from injury. If he were willing to accept a two-way contract, the Caps may consider bringing him back, but I doubt he would. There just is not enough room for him.

The Caps face a much tougher decision with Matt Hendricks. Hendricks is a gritty forward and locker room leader. He made only $800,000 last season, but based on his impact could expect a slight raise as other teams will be willing to pay him more to try and coax him out of Washington.

Should the Caps re-sign Ribeiro, the Caps may not have enough cap room to commit $1 million to a 31 year-old Hendricks. These are the types of players that George McPhee seems to value, however, and I assume he will be re-signed. The only thing that gives me pause is the Caps’ re-signing of Aaron Volpatti. He is younger than Hendricks and is a similar type of player. His extension was a surprise to me and could signal that the team is prepared to move on without Hendricks.

The Rangers revealed two major weaknesses in he Caps. First, they have no scoring depth, and second, they have no mid-level defensive depth.

When Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom produce, the Caps win. When Ovechkin surged in the second half of the season, he brought the team with him all the way to a Southeast Division championship. The top line stopped producing in the playoffs and the Caps were sent packing. To say they simply ran into a hot goalie is an over-simplification of what happened. The Caps have more offensive depth than the Bruins, yet the Bruins have scored ten goals in the first three games of their series with the Rangers. Henrik Lundqvist has looked fantastic and the Bruins are still managing to score.

The problem is that the Caps do not have enough scoring weapons on the top two lines and depend far too much on Ovechkin and Backstrom. The Caps do not have a top line left wing or a secondary scoring threat. They used to depend on Alex Semin on the second line and his departure has left a clear hole in the lineup. George McPhee’s acquisition of Martin Erat was an attempt to fix the problem. The Caps need to decide if Erat can become a legitimate second line weapon and, with Erat’s $4.5 million cap hit, McPhee better hope he can.

Defensively, Alzner, Green, and John Carlson have shown they are a solid top three. Steve Oleksy looks like he can contribute as a four or five, but after him there are not a lot of guys you can depend on as a full-time blue liner. The Caps are defensively top heavy.

John Erskine, Jack Hillen, Tomas Kundratek, and Schultz can all contribute as a six or seven; meaning they provide flexibility in case of injury, but are not dependable as full-time defensemen. Having four of them is too many, especially when there are few players to plug into the four or five spot.

The Caps will hope that Dmitry Orlov will continue to develop and fit into one of those middle spots, but they have too many players who contribute the same thing. Erskine and Hillen are likely not going anywhere. The team likes Kundratek and I expect they will re-sign him. Schutlz, as I explained earlier, is out. Even with Orlov, this team needs mid-level depth.

This is the team’s first offseason with Adam Oates as the head coach so McPhee should make a few moves to bring in players better suited for Oates’ system. Still, I do not see any major free agent signings. I expect the Caps will sign a mid-level defenseman and a veteran center to plug into the second or third line. The Caps trust Brooks Laich will be healthy for next season and they can plug him into the second line if need be, but they will need to bring in another if they do in fact let Ribeiro walk.

If both Schultz and Ribeiro are gone, however, the Caps may have enough room to address the left hole in the top line. Johnasson is good but, let’s be honest, he’s not a top line talent.

The Caps have their work cut out for them this offseason.

For the latest DC sports news, check out csnwashington.com or follow me on Twitter @TheDC_Sportsguy

Thursday, May 16, 2013

Caps enter offseason far too early, yet again

There was an all-too familiar feeling in DC Monday night; that awful, sinking feeling fans have come to expect every year. The Caps were headed home after another early-postseason exit.

The script always seems different, but the ending remains the same for the Caps. With a new coach, the odds were stacked against them coming out of the lockout. The team struggled immensely to start the season as they struggled to grasp the new system put in by Adam Oates, their third coach in two seasons.

Just when it looked like the Caps had dug themselves a hole too deep to dig out of, the team turned things around and grew white-hot. Alex Ovechkin became a superstar once again, Braden Holtby turned back into the star goalie from last year’s playoffs, and the team rallied to win its fifth Southeast division title in six years.

There was hope that the Caps would be able to stay hot in the playoffs as they faced the New York Rangers yet again, but after jumping out to a two game lead, the Caps were unable to close out the series and lost an embarrassing 5-0 contest in Game 7 in DC.

Yet again we are left to wonder what went wrong; yet again we ask what is this team missing?

Much has been made about the refereeing, especially after Ovechkin spoke out against the refs during his exit interview. The Rangers had 28 power-play opportunities in the series while the Caps had only 16. The Rangers were the least penalized team in the NHL in the regular season, so perhaps it is no surprise that there would be a discrepancy in power-plays, but the numbers hide just how important the penalties were and how bad some of the calls seemed to be. Too many penalties derailed the Caps’ offense. Frustration over the lack of calls against New York boiled over and led to more penalties as the Caps lashed out against their opponents.

The reffing was undeniably one-sided, but not for any sinister reason. My theory is that the refs were fed up with players like Jason Chimera and Mike Ribeiro who have made a habit of voicing their displeasure to the refs. As a result, whether consciously or subconsciously, the refs made the Caps pay.

Still, the Caps did this to themselves. The Rangers agitated the Caps, and they responded by committing stupid penalties. You cannot blame the refs for the numerous delay of game penalties or the Caps retaliatory penalties. Teams are going to agitate the Caps as long as it works. They needed to keep cooler heads on the ice and they were unable to do so.

The contributions of Henrik Lundqvist also cannot be over-stated. He is one of the best goalies in the league and he looked like it. The Caps managed only 12 goals in seven games against the Rangers and were shutout in the last two. Ovechkin was the league’s leading scorer but scored only one goal in seven games.

As good as Lundqvist was, the Rangers exposed a major weakness for the Caps; scoring depth.

Alexander Semin may have been a scapegoat over the past few years, but his departure left a gaping scoring hole on the second line. To try and fix this problem, General Manager George McPhee attempted to address this problem by trading for Martin Erat, but it was not enough.

Ultimately, the Caps are a skilled team without enough skill and with little offensive grit. No one wanted screened Lundqvist and the Caps managed few ‘dirty’ goals. There was not enough traffic in front of Lundqvist and not enough offensive creativity. The Rangers forced the puck back to the point and the Caps struggled to distribute, as demonstrated by the team’s shot totals. Ovechkin led the team in shots, but the next three highest shot totals came from defensemen. If Ovechkin is struggling to beat Lundqvist, you can beat Karl Alzner will as well.

Depth was also an issue on defense, where the John Erskine and Jack Hillen were exposed as major weaknesses at the blue line.

I have constantly spoken out against Erskine in the past, but this year he really turned me around. This season may have been his best as a professional. Hillen also played incredibly well, but the Ragners were not impressed.

Both Hillen and especially Erskine were victimized by the Rangers. This is an area the Caps must address this offseason. This was Erskine’s best season and he was still a step behind come the playoffs. He simply is not a player you can depend on when it matters most.

Without question, the biggest problem for the Caps is in their heads. There are weaknesses in their lineup, the refereeing could have been better, Lundqvist was hot, but all of these obstacles could have been overcome. The Caps just flat out did not play well enough to win this series.

Secondary scoring became a glaring weakness because their stars were not producing. Ovechkin had zero points in the last five games, Backstrom had only three points total, and the team’s leading scorer was Mike Green with two goals. That simply is not good enough.

The fact that the Caps could be so easily agitated and pressured into taking dumb penalties shows a lack of progression and maturity that just boggles the mind. The Caps have a great roster full of stars in their prime with years of playoff experience. Why are they still struggling to stay disciplined? Why are their stars struggling to produce? Why is the pressure still affecting them so blatantly?

Despite everything else, the biggest problem for this team is the mental hurdle they still have yet to overcome. That fragile mentality was evident in the 5-0 loss Monday night when the team collapsed at the first hint of adversity.

That same night, the Bruins overcame a three goal deficit in their game 7, to defeat Toronto in overtime. Between the Caps and Bruins, which would you guess is only two years removed from a Stanley Cup?

Time for the Caps to toughen up mentally or every year we will be left to ask ourselves, what’s missing?

For the latest in DC sports news, check out csnwashington.com or follow me on Twitter @TheDC_Sportsguy

Wednesday, May 1, 2013

Caps-Rangers preview

And so they meet again.

For the third year in a row and the fourth time in five seasons, the Washington Capitals will meet the New York Rangers in the playoffs. Every year these teams take very different routes to the playoffs and this year was no different.

Every Caps’ fan knows the roller coaster season the Caps have had. After starting the season 2-8-1, the Caps went on a tear. They looked like a lottery team and finished as one of the hottest teams in the league. Much of their success coincided with the resurgence of Alex Ovechkin, who wrapped up his third career Rocket Richard Trophy for most goals in the league. Despite the rocky start, the Caps rebounded to win the last ever Southeast Division Championship, their fifth in six years and seventh in team history.

The Caps head into the postseason having won 11 of their past 13, but really have been riding a hot streak for half the season now. That kind of streak and confidence can go a long way in the postseason, as the defending champion LA Kings can attest to.

Similarly, the Rangers are riding their own streak having gone 10-3-1 in the month of April which was sorely needed as the Rangers have been underachieving all season long. Will their new found confidence be enough to lead them past the Caps?

Offensive Key: Which offense will stay hot?

New York lost in the Eastern Conference Finals last season to New Jersey. With the addition of star winger Rick Nash in the off season the Rangers looked poised to challenge for the Stanley Cup, but were unable to gain the type of offensive veracity most people envisioned. They finished the season with 2.6 goals per game, good for 15th in the NHL. John Tortorella, the angry grandfather of NHL coaches, might not be the right coach for the roster this team has assembled.

The Ranger's recent run, however, came after a deadline trade with Columbus that sent Marion Gaborik to Columbus and brought in Derik Brassard, among others. The result thus far has been the type of offensive productions the Rangers have sought all year. Is this is a sign of improvement or simply a recent hot-streak that will cool down in the postseason?

It is well known how good the Caps are offensively, the question is whether the Rangers will be able to keep up.

Defensive Key: Can the Caps control their defensive zone?

The Rangers may have struggled to score but with their offensive talent they can put together a potent attack at any time.

Defensively, the Caps have really struggled to control their own crease. Tortorella’s teams always like to agitate and I expect on every offensive shift, someone will plant himself in front of Braden Holtby and dare the defense to kick him out.

The Caps also are terrible at covering the cross-ice pass. The defense can at times get sucked into a play and lose track of an opposing winger, leaving them open for an easy strike.

Controlling the crease will be a major key for the Caps. With the Rangers’ recent offensive surge, however, the Caps also cannot afford to lose track of New York’s dangerous scorers.

Goalie key: How many games can Lundqvist steal?

The Rangers managed to climb into the playoffs thanks to star goaltender Henrik Lundqvist. In the recent history between the Caps and Rangers, many players have come and gone. Lundqvist, however, has been there for all three of the recent series and he has been a rock each time. He will be critical in this series.

The Caps have the fourth best offense in the league and the top ranked power play. The Caps have been able at times to score on Lundqvist, but he is more than capable of stealing a game or two for the Rangers in this series and he will have to for the Rangers to have any chance.

Opposite him, will be Braden Holtby who established himself last year when he was thrust into the spotlight thanks to injuries to both Tomas Vokoun and Michal Neuvirth. Holtby unexpectedly found himself as the starting goalie in the playoffs and he was fantastic. The Caps will not rely on Holtby as much as the Rangers will rely on Lundqvist, but he will still need to be strong in this series if the Caps hope to win.

Special teams key: Can the Rangers stay disciplined?

The Caps have the best power play in the league. The Rangers have the 15th penalty kill. They are extremely aggressive, but to a fault. There are times when all four penalty killers will swarm to the puck, leaving someone alone and open in front of the net. The Rangers know they cannot do that against Ovechkin and the Caps because they will be shredded. If Ovechkin finds himself alone and by himself, it will not matter who’s in net.

Still, unless you see drastic improvement from the Rangers, the power play will be an obvious strength for the Caps.

As I said before, Tortorella coached teams love to agitate their opponents. They will play very physically against the Caps, but they must stay disciplined. The Rangers cannot afford to give the Caps too many chances on the power play or the Caps will make them pay.

Prediction:

Offense will decide this series. The Rangers need to score like the team everyone thought they would be all season long and the Caps need to score like the team we’ve seen in the second half of the season. More specifically, Ovechkin needs to score like the player we’ve seen in the second half.

Ovechkin leads the team (and the league) with 32 goals. Troy Brouwer is second on the team with 19 and Mike Ribeiro is third with 13. For you math whizzes out there, that means Ovechkin has more goals than both Brouwer and Ribeiro combined. You can say the Caps need to get secondary scoring, but who are we kidding? Ovechkin got them here; the postseason is not the time to suddenly depend on secondary scoring.

The Caps will win this series if Ovechkin can score five goals. That’s a tall task for a playoff series and against a goalie like Lundqvist, but the Caps will need that kind of production from him to survive.

The hotter Ovechkin remains, the better the Caps will fare against their familiar foes.

For the latest sports news, follow me on Twitter @TheDC_Sportsguy

Sunday, April 7, 2013

McPhee rolls the dice on this season, trades Forsberg for Erat

The Capitals headed into the trade deadline unsure of where they stood. The team found themselves right at the edge between playoff contention and a lost season. The only real question seemed to be whether the Caps would keep Mike Ribeiro.

Then the media was told to get their cameras ready.

Rather than sitting on his hands as many had expected, General Manager George McPhee made a bold trade involving one the team’s top prospects.

The Caps traded Filip Forsberg to the Nashville Predators in exchange for Martin Erat and prospect Michael Latta. The Caps also chose not to move Ribeiro. In so doing McPhee sent a strong message to the team about his expectations for the season.

Erat is a top six winger who consistently produces 50 points per season. He is fast and very smart on the ice. It may take a few games for him to adjust to his new team and system, but he will be able to contribute offensively right away.

Forsberg was the 11th overall pick in the 2012 NHL draft and widely hailed as one of the best prospects in the Caps’ system. He has great offensive skills and the potentil to become a top line winger. There are questions, however, over his speed and how long it may take Forsberg to develop into an NHL talent.

The latter may have been the sticking point.

The Caps still have top-notch talent in Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom and both are entering the prime of their careers. The championship window for this team may be closed by the time Forsberg began to reach his NHL potential and McPhee still feels this team is ready to compete now.

So while the Penguins added Jarome Iginla, Jussi Jokinen, and Brenden Morrow and the Bruins added Jaromir Jagr, the Caps added Erat? Is that really the move that will propel them to a Cup run?

Probably not, but there are three important things to keep in mind. First, the Caps are not as bad as their record. The Caps had a new coach with a new system and no training camp to implement it. They were always going to start slowly. Now the Caps have won three straight and seven of their last nine. We are beginning to see what this team could have been all season.

Second, this move was not made for this year alone. Erat has two years remaining on his contract. Since Oates was hired so late into the offseason, this was really the first major addition made with Oates in mind. This is a player who will be here next season who the Caps think can thrive in Oates' system.

Lastly, as the Kings showed us last year, it does not matter where you are in the standings come playoff time, you just have to get in. That is especially true this year with the condensed season; the better teams have not been able to separate themselves from the pack as they would have in a regular 82 game season.

McPhee managed to add a player than can help the offense both now and next season. The only problem is that in Nashville, Erat was more of a set-up man than a scorer which is what the Caps really needed. Still, as Nashville plays a more defensive system, with his puck handling skills and speed he may be able to thrive under Oates and provide a scoring touch this team has been missing since Alexander Semin's departure in the offseason.

Forsberg is a steep price, but if McPhee did have questions about his abilities at the NHL level then perhaps it is better to trade him now while his stock remains high.

A quick note: Erat left last night’s game against Florida when he was hit from behind by Erik Gudbranson and suffered a lower body injury. As of now, there has been now word as to the severity of that injury.

For the latest DC sports news, follow me on Twitter @TheDC_Sportsguy

Wednesday, April 3, 2013

What's wrong with Neuvirth?

Michal Neuvirth was supposedly scheduled to start Sunday when the Capitals traveled to Philadelphia, but he was held out as a precaution after taking an Ovechkin shot to the mask in practice the day before.

It was unfortunate timing for Neuvirth, but oddly enough it was the third time this season Neuvirth was scheduled to start and could not. For someone who’s starts have been few and far between, this seems a bit too curious.

Something does not smell right about this.

Since starting five of the team’s first seven games, Neuvirth has only started four of the last 29. He came in one other game in relief of Braden Holtby, but was pulled quickly during one of his own starts.

So Adam Oates has decided Holtby is his number one goalie, there’s nothing wrong with that. That’s simply part of the business.

The problem, however, is that Oates seems to be going out of his way not to play Neuvirth.

Conventional wisdom in the NHL is to switch your starters when your team plays on consecutive nights. Holtby, however, has played on consecutive nights three times this season. Perhaps Oates is not worried about tiring out his starter in a shortened season, but don’t forget, Holtby was playing in Hershey during the lockout.

The NHL may be playing a shortened season, but Holtby is not.

This brings me back to my original point. Three times this season Neuvirth has been expected to play and at the last second plans changed.

In two of those instances, Neuvirth was reportedly sick. This past weekend the team was evidently worried about a possible concussion.

I would have no questions about the team’s caution after Neuvirth took a puck to the mask, but as this is the third time something has happened just as he was supposed to play, it makes me question whether something else is going on.

I won’t argue that Neuvirth is a better goalie than Holtby. He’s not. Holtby deserves to be the top goalie. Neuvirth is, however, an above average goalie who has proven his abilities with this team. Had he not gotten injured late in the season last year, he would have been the team’s starting goalie in the playoffs. At the very least, he is good enough to relieve Holtby on consecutive nights.

I cannot tell you for sure what is going on; whether Neuvirth has fallen out of favor with Oates, if there is some sort of lingering injury, or whether Neuvirth himself has checked out mentally. What I can tell you is that Neuvirth started seven of the first 11 games. In that eleventh game in Pittsburgh, Neuvirth was pulled in the second period after allowing only two goals on 11 shots. It was too quick in my opinion and he has only started twice in the 25 games since.

Holtby is the better goalie, but Neuvirth’s play was not poor enough to justify such a complete shutdown.

If something happened, it is likely that it happened around that game in Pittsburgh. Was there an injury we are not aware of? Did Neuvirth resent the early hook? Did Oates completely lose faith in his backup goalie? Is Oates so desperate to make the playoffs he refuses to rest his starter?

I can’t answer these questions. What I can say is that teams have backup goalies for a reason. The Caps are fortunate to have a starting caliber goalie as their backup; it makes no sense not to use him.

If there is a situation between Neuvirth and the Oates, then Neuvirth needs to be traded before the deadline later today. You cannot have a situation where a goalie and coach do not trust one another. Should Holtby get injured down the stretch, whom does Oates turn to?

If you trust him, play him. If you don’t, then move him while you have the chance.

It’s possible I’ve read too much into this situation, but look at the facts. Neuvirth starts seven out of 11 games, he is pulled quickly in one game, and starts only twice in the next 25. Three times Holtby has played in consecutive games and three times Neuvirth has had to bow out of the precious few starts he’s been projected to play.

Something is definitely going on here.

For the latest sports news, follow me on Twitter @TheDC_Sportsguy

Sunday, March 24, 2013

Caps facing tough decisions at trade deadline

For the Caps, this week was do or die. A back-to-back matchup with the division-leading Jets was the Caps’ last chance to turn things around this season. Two losses would have all but doomed their chances for a late run to the postseason.

The Caps let everyone know that they were not ready to call it quits.

Oates and crew came out swinging and Troy Brouwer scored 3:06 into the game. Turns out, that would be all the Caps needed on the night.

They would tally another three for good measure and Holtby would chip in with a shutout. It was mission accomplished in game one as the Caps coasted to a 4-0 win.

Game two on Friday saw the Jets start more aggressively, but the Caps still were able to exert themselves early on. Brooks Laich got his first of the season at 12:10 into the first and Brouwer added a second four minutes later. The Caps never looked back going on to win 6-1.

Just a short week ago it was thought the Caps should be sellers at the approaching trade deadline. Now, they sit only five points behind Winnipeg for the top of the division and three points behind Carolina for the eighth and final playoff spot.

Selling at the deadline suddenly seems a bit premature.

The Caps were never going to have a fire sale anyway. The Caps just do not have enough assets they would be willing to part with. There is speculation surrounding Mike Ribeiro who is on the last year of his contract. I also think they could look to move Michal Neuvirth who has seemingly fallen out of favor with Adam Oates. Other than that, there is very little to sell.

The schedule itself also makes selling before the deadline premature. Including tonight’s game against the Rangers, the Caps have five games before the deadline. Only one of those games is against a team currently in playoff position, Carolina, who are dealing with injuries and have lost five straight.

The schedule allows for the Caps to make a strong run leading up to the trade deadline.

Of course, the Caps are not likely to be buyers either.

The inconsistencies they have shown thus far do not justify selling assets and draft picks for what ultimately remains a long shot postseason run. Should the Caps fail to make the playoffs, they will likely have a high draft pick. It makes no sense then to give those up.

Since it does not make sense to buy or sell then, I expect a quiet deadline for the Caps. Any possible run they make will depend on the roster they currently have. It will start tonight against the Rangers.

Sunday, March 10, 2013

Time to shop Green

After prolonged time to heal this offseason thanks to the lockout, it was hoped that Mike Green would enter the season healthy.  So far this season, he has missed eight games.  When he initially injured his groin, he missed only three games before returning saying his groin was feeling 100%.

I guess that was wishful thinking.

Injuries are becoming a troubling issue for Green as they have cut his past two seasons short. Green played only 81 games combined in those seasons.

Predictably, his production has declined as well. Green was on pace in both the 2010-11 and 2011-12 seasons for his lowest point totals since 2006-07. Green’s scoring ability was a luxury the team enjoyed, but without it he’s a very average defenseman. He tallied a whopping 76 points in 2009-10, but he was the team’s worst player in the infamous first round defeat at the hands of Montreal.

What makes Green so valuable is his offensive abilities. It would be nice to have Green back in the lineup, but if he is not producing, then he adds just another body to an already crowded blue line. As his production and health continually seem to decline, the Caps need to shop him in the offseason before another lackluster season takes away any trade value he may still have.

Obviously other teams will be aware of Green’s injury concerns, but they will be aware of his upside as well. At 27 years old, there will be numerous teams willing to roll the dice on Green, but the clock is ticking. The more Green struggles this season, the lower his trade value slips.

Still, it is hard to imagine there will be no interest for Green. He’s a great player when he’s healthy, but it just does not seem to be working out in DC anymore. Better to trade him now while he still has some value than hold on to him and risk watching his career disintegrate.

Friday, February 8, 2013

How do the Caps Turn Things Around?

After losing nine of their first eleven games including an embarrassing 5-2 blowout loss in Pittsburgh, front office desperation seems to be taking hold of the Capitals’ front office.  It was reported on ESPN Sunday that Capitals’ General Manager George McPhee has begun inquiring about possible trades.  They had no specifics, but the fact that he’s looking is an indication of just how bad things have gone for the Caps this season.

A shortened season pretty much throws the normal dynamics of the NHL out the window, but even so I think we can safely say the Caps have underachieved even by the most pessimistic of standards.  I knew the team would struggle for the first month or so as they figured out Adam Oates’ new system, but I also assumed they would be able to pick up points along the way.  Five out of a possible 22 points to start the season and an NHL-worst record means that the team needs to turn the ship around now or the season will be over as quickly as it began.

So what options does McPhee have to try and keep the train from derailing completely?

Adam Oates could be sweating a little bit about his job security, but do not expect a coaching change anytime soon.  Things may be bad right now, but it would be unfair to place the blame solely on his shoulders.  Oates was not allowed to even contact his team during the lockout, let alone coach them.  When the lockout was finally lifted, NHL teams were given a whopping 6 days for training camp.  With a condensed season, the team also has fewer days in between games, meaning fewer practices.  Oates has made his share of mistakes, but that is to be expected based on the circumstances.

Also, since a lot of the Caps’ problems stem from having to learn a new system from a new coach, you are not going to solve that problem by bringing in a fourth coach in two years.

Rumors began flying over the weekend that the Caps were interested in goalie Roberto Luongo after Vancouver’s GM, Mike Gillis, was spotted by cameras during Sunday’s game in DC.  Both McPhee and Gillis have stated they have not discussed a trade for Luongo and let’s hope they’re telling the truth; bringing him in would make no sense.

Of all the many problems the Caps have had so far, goaltending is by no means the most glaring.  Neither goalie is getting any help from the defense.  While Braden Holtby has looked terrible, Michal Neuvirth has been fairly solid.  True, he has had his own inconsistencies and let in some soft goals, but in many games he was the only thing keeping the Caps competitive.

There’s also a reason Vancouver is trying to trade Luongo.  He has a massive contract that extends through the 2021-22 season and a cap hit of $5.3 million.  Add that to Ovechkin and Backstrom’s contract and good luck trying to build a team with what little room remains of the salary cap.

Vancouver has been shopping Luongo since the beginning of the offseason and they have yet to pull the trigger on a deal.  Chances are they are asking for a lot in return.  It does not make sense to give up what Vancouver is expecting to obtain a massive contract to solve the least pressing of the Caps’ many problems.

The Caps have a much greater need for a scoring winger and a top-four defenseman.  The Caps rank 24th in goals per game and 27th in goals against per game.  The problem for McPhee is finding available players at a reasonable cost.  It is hard to find a high-impact player that a team would be willing to give up for very little.  As Marcus Johansson and Mathieu Perreault seem to have fallen out of favor with Oates, McPhee could perhaps look to use them as trade bait.  Neither, however, is likely to return the type of player the Caps would be seeking.

At this point, coming off the heels of the Caps’ worst game of the season, it may be best to stand pat.  Fans of course never appreciate it when their team gives up on a season, but I do not see the point in trading prospects or draft picks to try and salvage a season that may be past saving.  No, it is not too late to turn things around, but should the Caps continue collapsing, chances are they will hold a very high draft slot.  At this point, those picks are worth more than a rental player.

The Caps will either have to turn things around on their own or use next year’s draft to bring in the type of young, dynamic talent this team suddenly seems to be missing.

For the latest DC sports news, follow me on Twitter @TheDC_Sportsguy

Tuesday, February 5, 2013

Caps Struggling to Start the Season

Through the lockout, all the Washington Capitals wanted to do was to play hockey. All they want now is to go back to the lockout.

The young season has not been kind to the Caps who, after Sunday’s loss to Pittsburgh, have stumbled to a 2-6-1 record. With a very short camp and a new coach, the Caps were likely to struggle to start the season, but the transition has been harder than many expected and have left the team searching for answers.

So what’s gone wrong so far? A little bit of everything.

The Caps thought they were set in goal with both Braden Holtby and Michal Neuvirth, but at its best the goaltending has been inconsistent. Holtby, last season’s clutch performer has so far looked anything but. In four games, he has a whopping 4.52 GAA. He has shown none of the poise and focus of last season and his play has reflected that. Neuvirth has been the stronger of the two by far, but his mostly-solid performance has been marred by soft goals.

It is hard to put too much blame on the goalies, however, because neither is getting a lot of help. Defensively, the Caps have been a mess. Bad turnovers, bad penalties, and miscommunications have been prevalent especially from John Carlson.  Carlson has been on the ice for the vast majority of goals the team has allowed.  He has looked sluggish and out of sync with the rest of the team.  While the Caps have several bodies on defense, they have few top four defensemen.  So while Carlson has been terrible, he keeps getting top minutes; 22:52 per game, second highest on the team behind only Mike Green.

Offensively, the Caps just are not scoring. They rank 25th in goals per game. They are creating good chances and great pressure, but that just has not translated into more scoring. Alexander Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Mike Green have five goals combined.  Alexander Semin may have become a punchline at the end of his tenure in DC, but he did provide the Caps with another weapon other teams had to account for.  He was a skilled winger capable of producing pionts and taking pressure off the other stars.  The Caps are missing his presence more than they expected.  They are getting secondary scoring from players like Joel Ward and Mike Ribeiro, but they need their stars to start producing.

More than anything else, it has been the mental mistakes that have hurt this team. The Caps are ranked 21stin penalty minutes and 26th in penalty kills. They have gotten off to poor starts and have collapsed at the end of games. When a team transitions to a new coach, these mental mistakes can happen because the players are thinking too hard. Rather than instinctively knowing what to do, players have to stop and think and that split second can mean everything.

When the Capitals have managed to put together a solid effort, you can see the makings of a good team. When they finally figure things out, this team will be much better. It is not time yet to panic in DC.

While things may not be as dire as the record may suggest that’s not to say Oates has done everything right; he’s made his share of mistakes.

Knowing what a burden the transition was going to be for the team with the abbreviated training camp, it was Oates’ responsibility to try and make that transition as seamless as possible. Moving Ovechkin from the left, where he has played his entire life, to the right while teaching him a new system in a 6-day training camp was overly-ambitious. I like the idea of trying him on the right, but that will be something to try next season after Ovechkin has a summer to get used to it.

The Caps thought they may have an advantage coming out of the lockout because Backstrom and Ovechkin had been playing with each other in Russia, but Ovechkin was playing left wing in Russia.  By switching Ovechkin to the right, you have negated whatever chemistry and familiarity the pair had built with one another.

Now Backstrom and Ovechkin are not even on the same line and Oates has struggled to find a combination that produces. In his tinkering, Oates tried for a time to match Ovechkin with Jay Beagle and Joey Crabb. This was a disaster from the start.

The season has been condensed in order to get as many games as possible in between now and April, making conditioning a major factor. It is important therefore for the team to be able to roll four lines to prevent fatigue. Spreading the grinders and energy players with the stars can bring a new energy to some of the stars and keep each line fresh. Matching Ovechkin with Beagle and Crabb, however, puts far too much pressure on Ovechkin’s shoulders. For a player who has been struggling to produce and has been criticized for trying to do too much at times, why would you put him on a line with no other offensive playmakers? With all due respect to Beagle and Crabb, this line forces Ovechkin to try and do everything himself.

The biggest problem facing the Caps now is time. If and when they finally adapt to Oates’ system, will they have dug themselves a hole they cannot get out of? Of all the seasons to have new coach, this is about as unfortunate as you can get.

When Dale Hunter took over mid-season for the Caps last year, the team lost six of their first 11 games and that was after losing 10 of their previous 15. The difference was that the Caps still had half a season left to turn things around.

It may not be time to panic, but the clock is ticking. The Caps need points and they need them now.

For the latest DC sports news, follow me on Twitter @TheDC_Sportsguy

Wednesday, January 16, 2013

Capitals Preview: Shortened Season Provides New Challenges

The most baffling work stoppage perhaps in the history of sports finally came to an end Saturday with the NHL and NHLPA’s signing of the “memo of understanding” on Saturday night. Now the Washington Capitals must fit an entire offseason of preparation into one week as they prepare for the season opener on January 19th in Tampa Bay. Here are the big questions that face this team heading into training camp.

Can Adam Oates instill a successful system quickly?

Adam Oates takes over for Dale Hunter as the third coach for the Caps in the last year. Oates served as an assistant coach in Tampa Bay for the 2009-2010 season and in New Jersey from 2010-2012. He has been universally praised for his offensive acumen, and the hope is that he will be able to revive Alex Ovechkin and the Caps’ potent attack. His system is seen as a hybrid of Bruce Boudreu’s and Hunter’s, and I think the Caps will thrive under it. Eventually.

Oates has no head coaching experience and only a week to instill his system on his new team. With a shortened season the Caps cannot afford any growing pains that can come with a new coach. A bad first month will be much harder to recover from. The Caps went 5-5 in their first ten games under Hunter, and 11-9-1 in their first 20. They did not qualify for the playoffs until the second to last game of the season. A similar stretch this season may prove too steep a hill to climb.

Can Braden Holtby transition into a full-time NHL goalie?

Who can forget the heroics of Braden Holtby in the playoffs last season? Called upon when both Tomas Vokoun and Michal Neuvirth went down with injury, Holtby showed he was more than ready for NHL action with an impressive postseason performance. The Caps hope he can continue playing at the same level this season as a full-time, albeit for a shorter season, NHLer.

Neuvirth returns as well so expect to see a dual goalie system again. Both played during the lockout, Neuvirth in Europe and Holtby in the AHL, so both should be in game shape. One of the Caps’ main weaknesses over the past several seasons now looks to be a real strength for this team with two solid, playoff tested goalies on the roster.

Do the Caps have enough offensive weapons to make up for the loss of Alexander Semin?

In Semin’s best season with the Caps, he scored 40 goals and tallied another 44 assists. As the team hopes for a bit of an offensive revival under Oates, Semin’s goal-scoring capabilities will be sorely missed. The Caps have speed and playmakers, but without him they lack real goal-scoring depth.

The hope is that Mathieu Perrault will develop into a top scorer and Wojtek Wolski will makeup for the rest. A resurgent Ovechkin would also be nice. The three of them together can easily makeup for the absence of the fickle winger.

That’s wishful thinking.

The loss of Semin will takeaway from Ovechkin’s potency. While Semin only scored 49 goals in the past two seasons, he was someone else teams needed to account for. In clutch situations when both players would play together, teams had to be aware of both wingers at all times. Without Semin, teams will continue to key on Ovechkin. He may have been playing well in Russia, but unless Oates can devise a way to get him free from opposing defenses, he will continue struggling to produce at the level Caps fans expect and haven’t seen since 2010.

Perrault has shown great potential, but he remains incredibly inconsistent in his offensive production. I like the addition of Wolski, but I would not be surprised if McPhee is looking for more offense before the trade deadline.

Are injuries already an issue?

The Caps had a scare when they learned Nicklas Backstrom had suffered a “neck injury” while in Russia that reportedly made him feel dizzy. After seeing a concussion expert upon returning, it appears he did not suffer another concussion and should be fine for the start of the season. Still after how long he was sidelined last season, the Caps are likely to be very protective of their star center.

Brooks Laich has not participated in training camp and a report by TSN’s Bob Mckenzie says Laich could miss the first one or two weeks of the season. Laich is a great player whose leadership will be missed while he is away, but his grinding style of play is more effective in the latter months of the season. The Caps of course would prefer to have him in the lineup, but two weeks to start the season is not the end of the world.

Young defenseman Dmitry Orlov also has yet to make his debut at camp due to an upper-body injury and, according to the Washington Examiner, he will not be ready for the start of the regular season. I’m not quite sure how serious this is. No one seems to talk about it, but he’s been out since early December. He played well as a number 6 or 7 last season and I was hoping to see further development this season. Hopefully this injury will not keep him out of the Caps lineup for an extended amount of time.

Predictions?

We will learn everything we need to know about this team in the first month. This season will lack the major ups and downs of a typical 82 game schedule which means a quick start will be crucial. That’s not good news for a team with a new coach and several new key players. The team will likely lean on Ovechkin for offense and Holtby in net as they continue to learn Oates’style. If they can quickly adapt to it they can make a lot of noise in the Eastern Conference.

Unfortunately, the shortened schedule and makeup of this season really hurts a team like the Caps. They have too much talent to underachieve as badly as last season, but not enough time to put it all together and will finish second in the division yet again. They will make the playoffs, but it will not be a deep run.

The Caps will thrive under Oates eventually, but not this season.

For the latest DC sports news, follow me on Twitter @TheDC_Sportsguy

Wednesday, January 2, 2013

DC Sports 2012 Year in Review

For the Redskins, 2012 was the year of RG3.  In March, the team decided to go all-in on Robert Griffin III, trading three first round picks and a second round pick to St. Louis in order to move up to number two in the draft.

Additionally, the NFL fined the Redskins $36 million in cap space because of contract structures during the uncapped season.  With less cap space and no top draft picks for the next two seasons, Griffin’s success became paramount for the Redskins to become competitive in the near future.

He did not disappoint.

Griffin finished with 3,200 yards, a 65.6 completion percentage, and 27 total touchdowns. He also threw for only five interceptions, displaying accuracy and decision making capabilities well beyond his years. Both he and surprise running back Alfred Morris transformed the offense this season and everyone bought in on the feeling that this team had the makings of something special.

The season did not start out as many had hoped, as the team dropped to 3-6 heading into the bye week. Mike Shanahan then made his now famous comments about how it was time to evaluate his players to determine who would remain in the years to come, making everyone believe he had given up hope on the season.

The team, however, did not. They returned from the bye and proceeded to win the remaining seven games on the schedule, including a 28-18 win over Dallas in the season finale to earn their first NFC East division championship since 1999.

The Redskins now prepare for a wildcard matchup with Seattle as they hope to extend their storybook season.

New Year’s Resolution:  Keep RG3 healthy and get defensive personnel to match the talent on offense.

The Nationals also saw their team carried into the postseason by their young talent. After a much improved 2011 season in which the team finished with a 80-81 record, the Nationals compiled a roster with the expectations of competing for the division in 2012.

In addition to the return of ace Stephen Strasburg, the team also debuted a rotation featuring Gio Gonzalez, mainstay Jordan Zimmermann, Edwin Jackson, and the surprising Ross Detwiler. The rotation quickly became the most dominant in the MLB.

Though the Nationals were hoping to further develop Bryce Harper in AAA, injuries forced him into the lineup and he made his MLB debut on April 28 against the Dodgers. Did he prove he belonged in the majors?  “That’s a clown question, bro.”

The Nationals compiled a record of 98-64, finishing with their first ever NL East division title.  In addition, Davey Johnson was named NL manager of the year and Harper was named NL rookie of the year.  Strasburg, Gonzalez, Harper, and Ian Desmond were all named NL All-Stars, the most since the team moved to DC.

The Nationals met the St. Louis Cardinals in the divisional series, where Jayson Werth provided perhaps the biggest moment in the history of the Nationals, a walk-off homerun in game four to force a decisive game five.

Game five of course had a very different outcome.  After jumping out to a 6-0 lead, the Nationals watched as the Cardinals chipped away until finally taking the lead with a four-run ninth inning. It was a bitter end to a fantastic season.

Perhaps the biggest story of all for the Nationals did not even take place on the field.  General Manager Mike Rizzo adamantly declared that Strasburg would be kept on an innings limit after returning from Tommy John surgery.  Rizzo was mostly ignored as no one expected the Nationals to be a legitimate World Series contender, but his decision sparked weeks of debate as the shutdown approached and the team sat atop the standings.  In the end, Rizzo stuck to his guns and Strasburg was pulled.

Clearly hoping for another postseason run, the Nationals brought in Denard Span and Dan Haren. They are also continuing their negotiations with Adam LaRoche in the hopes of retaining him.

New Year’s Resolution: Sign LaRoche, repeat as NL East champs, play Strasburg for a full season including postseason, and make a deep playoff run.

While 2012 featured dream seasons for the Redskins and Nationals, the Wizards year has been a nightmare.

The end of the 2011-2012 season saw the Wizards in yet another lottery season, but Ernie Grunfeld decided not to wait until the offseason to address some of the team’s problems. In a three team trade, Grunfeld sent off locker room headaches JaVale McGee and Nick Young and brought in Nene and Brian Cook. The move seemed to work as the Wizards finished the season winning six straight.

In July, the team also released Andray Blatche and brought in Emeka Okafor and Trevor Ariza in a trade for Rashard Lewis.  The organization declared loudly that they were no longer a lottery team, largely based on the team’s assumption that Wall would be playing.

In September, the team announced that Wall had suffered a stress injury to his knee and he would not be able to start the season.  Without the key player the team had been built around, the Wizards didn’t stand a chance and finished out 2012 with the worst record in the NBA at 4-24.

New Year’s Resolution: Get Wall back, avoid the worst record in NBA history, bring in talent in the offseason.

The Wizards might not be having a good season, but the Capitals haven’t had any season at all. The NHL lockout has now stretched on at ridiculous length, forcing the cancellation of all games from October through December and into January.

As slow as things may be now, the beginning of 2012 was very eventful. The Caps found themselves struggling to transition from an offensive mentality to a defensive one under new coach Dale Hunter. The team did manage to claw its way to a seventh place finish and a matchup with Boston.  Thanks to the emergence of young Braden Holtby in goal, the Caps and Bruins played the closest playoff series in NHL history.  Game seven went to overtime where Joel Ward knocked in a rebound in one of the most exciting games in the history of the organization.

The Caps met an even tougher matchup in round two against the New York Rangers and Ward went from hero to goat.  In game five with the series tied at two and the Caps holding onto a two-goal lead, Ward was called for a double-minor high sticking penalty.  The Rangers scored on both, including the game-tying goal with 6.1 seconds left, and won in overtime.  The Caps forced a game seven yet again, but fell in Madison Square Garden.

At the end of the season, Hunter decided to return to Ontario, so the reins were passed to another former Caps’ captain, Adam Oates, who by now must be dying to prove himself.

New Year’s Resolution: PLAY!!!

In another mad dash to the playoffs, DC United suddenly found themselves in dire straits as leading scorer Dwayne De Rosario went down with a knee injury. United led by head coach Ben Olsen, however, did not lose again for the rest of the season and clinched their first playoff berth in five years. After a thrilling victory over rival New York, United’s season came to an end in the conference finals against Houston.

New Year’s Resolution: Find consistency and return to the playoffs.

For the latest DC sports news, follow me on Twitter @TheDC_Sportsguy

Saturday, November 3, 2012

NHL Cancels Winter Classic, Regular Season Probably Not Far Behind

The NHL announced on Friday the cancellation of the Winter Classic.  As the Classic goes, so goes the season.  Go ahead and make other plans, get your ticket refunds, trade in your Caps merchandise for Wizards, because there is not going to be a hockey season.

This may seem like an overreaction, but I’ve said all along that if the Classic were to be cancelled, the season would not be far behind.

The NHL has lost its biggest event of the season.  According to ESPN, the Classic had 3.5 million viewers last year.  Every game of the Stanley Cup finals averaged about 3 million viewers.  The Classis is the signature event, the one day every year when hockey is relevant.  And now, it’s gone.

Yes, it is only the beginning of November.  There is plenty of time to save the season, but it does not matter. Even if the NHL and NHLPA came to an agreement tomorrow, the Classic could not be brought back.  Deputy commissioner Bill Daly told reporters as much.

Rumors of the cancellation had been circulating for over a week.  The reason why the NHL waited until Friday was because when the announcement was made, it was final.  The event takes months of planning and preparing.  An outdoor rink does not just appear over night and an event of this magnitude take time to pull off.

With the Classic gone, both sides will struggle to come to an equitable deal.  The players have lost all of their leverage.  The only thing they really had to threaten the owners with was the Classic.

The lockout began with each side feeling out the other.  How long would the league be willing to let this drag out?  Perhaps if the players could hold out until they could threaten the league’s cash cow, the owners would be willing to offer a better deal.  Now  the NHL has lost its biggest, most profitable, most important event of the year.  The players have overplayed their hand, and the league is going to make them pay for it.

Two weeks ago, the NHL offered the players a 50/50 deal.  The NHLPA responded with three counter proposals that gave them more than what the NHL was offering and the NHL quickly rejected those proposals.  Why would the NHL now give the players a better deal?  The owners would never have locked the players out if the regular season were that important to them.  They will risk this season to get the upper hand in the negotiations.

The owners have come to a point where they can force a better deal for themselves on the players.  Before, the goal for the NHL was to come to an equitable agreement in order to save the Classic and the regular season.  Now, the goal is to get the best deal they can possibly force from the players.

Think about it this way, in a hostage negotiation, what happens when there are no more hostages to exchange?  That’s when the SWAT team goes in.  The players have nothing left to negotiate with.

The NHLPA turned their noses at the NHL’s proposal two weeks ago.  They will not simply cave in now, but they also cannot hold out as long as the owners can.  The longer this drags out, the more desperate they will become.  When this is over, the players will look back at the NHL’s last proposal and wish they had accepted it because the offers are only going to get worse from here on out.

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