Cards stacked against teams like Wizards in NBA

When the Wizards were selected third in the NBA Draft Lottery, excitement grew at the prospect of adding another key piece to the team. After the team’s dramatic turnaround with the return of John Wall from injury last season, the Wizards already look poised to challenge for a playoff spot. Adding the number three overall pick will be a major asset to this team.

But will it be enough in today’s NBA?

Miami’s second straight NBA championship underscores the uphill battle the Wizards face. Even the most casual of basketball fans know the story of ‘The Big 3’ coming together in Miami. Since that time, the Heat have gone to the finals three straight years and have won it the last two. Now, Dwight Howard and Chris Paul are reportedly talking about playing together next season.

Do you think the Wizards are on their list of teams they would play for?

In this era of the NBA, free agency is being driven by superstars planning coming together and picking where they want to go. The problem is, none of those superstars are picking places like Toronto, Milwaukee, Washington, etc.

Sure, there are smaller market teams that have found some success, such as Oklahoma City, but they hit the draft jackpot with Kevin Durant. Not every team can rely on finding a Lebron or a Durant in the draft.

There are only two formulas for success in the NBA. Either a team drafts a superstar who can recruit others or traditional basketball powers (Celtics, Lakers) or popular cities attract superstars in free agency. The last team to win the championship that did not fit this mold was the 2004 Detroit Pistons.

What really makes this unfair is that for those teams without a superstar, making the playoffs can actually hurt your chances of eventually building a championship team.

Making the playoffs in the NBA is different than in the other sports where every year each team has a chance to win regardless of the seeding. In the history of the NBA, the lowest ever seed to win the championship was the 6^th seeded Houston Rockets in 1995. Upsets are always possible from series to series, but for the most part only a handful of teams have a real shot at winning the championship.

Milwaukee made the playoffs this year, but they had no shot of winning and were swept in the first round by Miami. How are they supposed to get better? Do you think they can get Chris Paul? Of course not. The Bucks, however, will not get a lottery pick because they made the playoffs. Unless they find a real steal in the draft, the Bucks will not be able to lure superstar players to Milwaukee in free agency.

What about Memphis or Indiana who made it to the conference finals? Don’t  these smaller market teams prove every team has a chance? Not really. Both these teams will be competing with the Lakers, Heat, Spurs, and Celtics for the same free agents. I seriously doubt we will see Howard in Memphis or Paul in Indiana any time soon.

Getting back to the Wizards, they have the chance to add another weapon, but with the relative weakness of the draft, they are unlikely to add a Durant-level star. Barring another injury-plagued season, the Wizards will likely make the playoffs in 2014.

It will be exciting to see playoff basketball in DC again, but Otto Porter Jr. or Anthony Bennett or whomever they take in the draft will not make them a championship team. The only real way to continue building is through free agency.

Are John Wall and Bradley Beal enough of a draw to bring in big time free agents? Probably not.

As unbelievable and unfair as it may be, the Wizards are rapidly approaching the ceiling of the Wall era. In five years, Wall will be 28 and at best the Wizards will be a middle of the pack playoff team, capable of playing their way to the conference championship, but no further. Then, the team will have to start over.

Unless they can find that big time star in the draft, the cards will always be stacked against teams like the Wizards. That is, until the NBA institutes a hard salary cap.

For the latest sports news, check out CSNWashington.com or follow me on Twitter @TheDC_Sportsguy

Wizards need to get healthy in the offseason

The Wizards closed the 2012-13 season Wednesday night with a 95-92 loss in Chicago. The team finished 29-53 on the year, good for 12thin the East and will miss the playoffs yet again.

Yet, despite their record, the Wizards appeared to have improved tremendously this season.

When this team was healthy, they were one of the most competitive in the league. They beat some of the best clubss including Memphis, Indiana, and Denver in Denver. The roster appeared to be as good as advertised prior to the season when the team felt they could compete for the playoffs.

Early season injuries, however, derailed any postseason hopes the Wizards may have had.

Health was by far the team’s biggest problem. John Wall was sidelined for the first two months of the season with a stress fracture in his knee and Bradley Beal missed the last month with a similar stress injury. Nene has battled a variety of injuries all year, severely limiting his time and effectiveness on the court.

The number of injuries this team dealt with over the season makes it hard to accurately grade the Wizards’ season. They have missed the playoffs yet again, but for the second half of the season they were a competitive team.

Not knowing how to grade them makes it hard to improve upon it and I believe next year’s starting five will look very similar to this season’s.

Of the Wizards’ five starters, only Martell Webster is not currently under contract and the other four are unlikely to lose their spots. How the Wizards may look to improve their roster will depend greatly on where they end up in the draft and who is still available when it is their turn.

With all the talk surrounding Wall, I expect the Wizards to extend him to a max contract or something close to it. With Trevor Ariza, Emeka Okafor, and Nene all earning ridiculous salaries, the Wizards will most likely not making any big moves in free agency. If the team wants to improve, it will be through the draft.

Last year, perimeter shooting was the obvious need. This year, there are many spots the Wizards need to improve upon, but no single glaring weakness.

In terms of the backcourt, Wall and Beal are obviously the anchors, but the Wizards still need to improve their shooting and depth. Small forward is probably the most obvious need. Webster is unsigned and Ariza is a much more effective sixth man than starter. If the Wizards drop too far in the draft, however, it is likely that players like Shabazz Muhammad and Otto Porter Jr. will be gone. Webster may not be the long-term solution at starter, but Webster and Ariza are a good enough tandem to throw out for one more season.

The Wizards could also look at big men. Nene’s health is a question mark. He always plays injured and the team suffers when he is out of the lineup. Okafor is on the last year of his contract. The Wizards could look for developmental types at power forward or center. Both Nene and Okafor are paid too much to sit on the bench, but the Wizards will need to replace both in the near future.

Like this season, much of next season’s success will depend on the health and durability of the team. If Wall, Beal, and Nene are all healthy, the Wizards are at worst a .500 team. With a strong draft and offseason, the Wizards could be a playoff team next year and could further improve for 2014-15 when they emerge from under the shadow of Okafor and Ariza’s deals.

Progress may be slow, but the Wizards do appear to finally be on the right track.

Is John Wall worth a max deal?

With the successful return of John Wall, rumors have began swirling that the Wizards are preparing to offer their young point guard a max contract.

J. Michael of CSN reported that several persons with knowledge of the situation believe the Wizards are preparing to offer Wall a max deal. In many ways, Wall fits the mold of a max player.

As a point guard, Wall is the most important player on the floor. He is a former number one overall pick and is the best player on the team. He has clearly improved his jump shot and has become a more prolific scorer averaging 15.6 points per game.

 

More importantly he makes the entire team better when he is in the lineup. The shooting percentage of everyone on the floor shoots up when Wall is playing. The Wizards went 5-28 without him and are 19-15 since his return. That is a dramatic jump.

But does a .559 win percentage really justify a max contract?

 

Max contracts should go to elite talents only because you are handcuffing your ability to bring in other players to supplement your roster.

Wall may be a great player, but he is not an elite talent. Giving him more money further obstructs the team’s ability to surround him with better players.

The Wizards were historically bad without Wall in the lineup. Compare that to the Bulls who have been without their best player, Derrick Rose, for the entire season. The Bulls are 36-30, good for sixth in the east. They are a playoff team. This shows you just how bad Wall's supporting cast is. They certainly have some good players on the team, such as rookie Bradley Beal, but not enough to be great.

 

Perhaps the hardest thing for the Wizards and fans to accept is that Wall is not an elite talent. Elite of course  is a subjective term, but when I think elite, I think LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Dwyane Wade, Tim Duncan, Derrick Rose, etc. Wall is not among those players. True, he is only in his third year and a max contract would be an investment on what the Wizards believe he could be, but I do not see Wall developing into that level of player. Ask yourself this: who has the higher ceiling, Wall or Kyrie Irving?

 

I have no doubt Wall will continue to get better. He has shown he can do so in the course of this season with his improved jump shot, but his ceiling is much lower than Irving's. The NBA is the most star-driven sport in America. If Wall's ceiling is only so high, that makes the Wizards' ceiling that much lower. Can you really see Wall becoming on the elite players of the sport?

 

This is not to say the Wizards should not pursue re-signing him, he is a very good player. Paying him as if he is among the league's elite, however, will haunt the Wizards. I fear that the Wizards are setting themselves up to be a middle of the pack playoff team unable to challenge the sports' top teams and without the cap space to bring in the other pieces they need to be a true contender. Then the Wizards will have to blow the team up and start over.

 

The plan should be to build a contender, not overpay a single player and handcuff the team's future. Pretending you have a superstar will not make him one. Wall may be good, but he is not 'max' good.

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Wizards Enter All-Star Break Wondering What If

Despite a disastrous start to the season, the Wizards enter the All-Star break feeling more confident after the return of John Wall. The Wizards have gone 10-8 with Wall and suddenly look like a competitive team.

 

It is easy to blame the Wizards resurgence on Wall’s return alone, but coach Randy Wittman did an incredible job laying the foundation for success. Defense has been a point of emphasis for Wittman and the stats reflect that. The Wizards currently rank sixth in the league in points allowed and ninth in rebounds per game. Defense kept the Wizards competitive in multiple games in which they were completely outclassed and outplayed. Upon Wall’s return, the resurgence brought upon the team’s current success. Even with Wall, the team still is not a great offensive team. They continue winning, however, because of the team’s commitment to defense.

 

Still, it is undeniable that Wall is the leader of the team and it makes one wonder what could have been had Wall been healthy this season. The Wizards’winning percentage since his return is .555, which would currently put them at seventh in the East just above Boston. The Wizards are currently playing at a playoff caliber pace.

 

Before the season began, the Wizards’ organization declared that this was a playoff team. Their current success does somewhat justify GM Ernie Grunfeld’s plan for this season so long as he does not ignore the lessons learned by their disastrous start.

 

The Wizards were not just bad, they were historically bad. The loss of Wall does not justify a 5-28 start. Wall’s absence revealed how weak his supporting cast really is. Nene’s health is a constant concern, Trevor Ariza is only effective when he is coming off the bench, and the Wizards have little depth at point guard.

 

Compare them to Chicago who has been without star Derrick Rose for the entire season. The Bulls are currently fifth in the east, the Wizards are 13^th. The Bulls have two players in the all-star game (Luol Deng and Joakim Noah), the Wizards have one player in the rising stars challenge (Bradley Beal). The Bulls have a strong supporting cast surrounding their undisputed leader; they are a playoff team even without him. The Wizards have a rag-tag team of bad contracts and draft picks that compiled the worst record in the league without Wall.

 

The pieces are in place for the Wizards to perhaps compete for a playoff spot, but there’s not enough there to be real competitors, even when Wall and Beal reach their full potential. There is still a long way to go for Grunfeld to bring a competitor to DC. If the Wizards can stay healthy next season, however, they can make the playoffs and that is definitely a step in the right direction.

Wall Makes Long Awaited Return

In a season that’s had very few bright spots, the Wizards finally had a reason to smile Saturday. Team star John Wall made his season debut to the delight of the fans at Verizon Center and led the Wizards to a 93-83 win over the Atlanta Hawks.

 

Wall missed the first 33 games of the season with a stress fracture in his left knee and the Wizards showed just how dependent they are on his talent. The team took a 5-28 record into Saturday night, easily the worst record in the NBA. They left looking like the team Ted Leonsis and Ernie Grunfeld had envisioned at the beginning of the season.

 

Wall did not start, but came in at the 4:56 mark in the first quarter. The crowd at Verizon welcomed him with a standing ovation. Initially, he struggled to find his shot, but Wall quickly made it clear he belonged on the floor. He played only 21 minutes and recorded 14 points, four assists, and two rebounds.

 

What was striking was just how different the team looked with Wall back in the lineup. Without him, the Wizards were the little engine that couldn’t; they started slow, kept things close for three quarters, then collapsed in the fourth quarter. It had become an all too familiar formula of futility.

 

Saturday, the Wizards looked like an actual collection of professionals. They played with confidence, they passed well, they executed well, they looked like a completely different team. This did not come against Cleveland or Sacramento, it came against a very good Atlanta team. It was the first glimpse of what this Wizards’team was expected to be.

 

What does this mean going forward? Unfortunately, the Wizards have dug themselves a hole far too deep to dig out of. They may have had playoff aspirations to start the season, but those are long gone. Interestingly enough, Wall’s return may actually hamper the Wizards. While they won’t challenge for the playoffs, if Saturday is any indication, they could climb the standings and hurt their place in the 2013 draft lottery.

 

To start the season the Wizards declared they were no longer a lottery team, but they probably did not foresee a 6-28 start. We knew this team was built around Wall, but in his absence we learned just how few playmakers there were on the roster. The loss of your best player does not excuse a historically bad start. Look at Chicago. Even without Derrick Rose, the Bulls are sixth in the East with a record of 20-15. The Wizards cannot build a team solely around a player who has yet to play a full NBA season and they would make his job easier with another star player. If they cannot get one in the draft, they will have to look elsewhere. There are reports that the Wizards are currently trying to negotiate a deal with Memphis for Rudy Gay. That’s a good start.

 

While it was only one game, the Wizards should us a glimpse of what they could be with Wall back in the lineup. Now, they just need to could him healthy and get him some help.

DC Sports 2012 Year in Review

For the Redskins, 2012 was the year of RG3.  In March, the team decided to go all-in on Robert Griffin III, trading three first round picks and a second round pick to St. Louis in order to move up to number two in the draft.

Additionally, the NFL fined the Redskins $36 million in cap space because of contract structures during the uncapped season.  With less cap space and no top draft picks for the next two seasons, Griffin’s success became paramount for the Redskins to become competitive in the near future.

He did not disappoint.

Griffin finished with 3,200 yards, a 65.6 completion percentage, and 27 total touchdowns. He also threw for only five interceptions, displaying accuracy and decision making capabilities well beyond his years. Both he and surprise running back Alfred Morris transformed the offense this season and everyone bought in on the feeling that this team had the makings of something special.

The season did not start out as many had hoped, as the team dropped to 3-6 heading into the bye week. Mike Shanahan then made his now famous comments about how it was time to evaluate his players to determine who would remain in the years to come, making everyone believe he had given up hope on the season.

The team, however, did not. They returned from the bye and proceeded to win the remaining seven games on the schedule, including a 28-18 win over Dallas in the season finale to earn their first NFC East division championship since 1999.

The Redskins now prepare for a wildcard matchup with Seattle as they hope to extend their storybook season.

New Year’s Resolution:  Keep RG3 healthy and get defensive personnel to match the talent on offense.

The Nationals also saw their team carried into the postseason by their young talent. After a much improved 2011 season in which the team finished with a 80-81 record, the Nationals compiled a roster with the expectations of competing for the division in 2012.

In addition to the return of ace Stephen Strasburg, the team also debuted a rotation featuring Gio Gonzalez, mainstay Jordan Zimmermann, Edwin Jackson, and the surprising Ross Detwiler. The rotation quickly became the most dominant in the MLB.

Though the Nationals were hoping to further develop Bryce Harper in AAA, injuries forced him into the lineup and he made his MLB debut on April 28 against the Dodgers. Did he prove he belonged in the majors?  “That’s a clown question, bro.”

The Nationals compiled a record of 98-64, finishing with their first ever NL East division title.  In addition, Davey Johnson was named NL manager of the year and Harper was named NL rookie of the year.  Strasburg, Gonzalez, Harper, and Ian Desmond were all named NL All-Stars, the most since the team moved to DC.

The Nationals met the St. Louis Cardinals in the divisional series, where Jayson Werth provided perhaps the biggest moment in the history of the Nationals, a walk-off homerun in game four to force a decisive game five.

Game five of course had a very different outcome.  After jumping out to a 6-0 lead, the Nationals watched as the Cardinals chipped away until finally taking the lead with a four-run ninth inning. It was a bitter end to a fantastic season.

Perhaps the biggest story of all for the Nationals did not even take place on the field.  General Manager Mike Rizzo adamantly declared that Strasburg would be kept on an innings limit after returning from Tommy John surgery.  Rizzo was mostly ignored as no one expected the Nationals to be a legitimate World Series contender, but his decision sparked weeks of debate as the shutdown approached and the team sat atop the standings.  In the end, Rizzo stuck to his guns and Strasburg was pulled.

Clearly hoping for another postseason run, the Nationals brought in Denard Span and Dan Haren. They are also continuing their negotiations with Adam LaRoche in the hopes of retaining him.

New Year’s Resolution: Sign LaRoche, repeat as NL East champs, play Strasburg for a full season including postseason, and make a deep playoff run.

While 2012 featured dream seasons for the Redskins and Nationals, the Wizards year has been a nightmare.

The end of the 2011-2012 season saw the Wizards in yet another lottery season, but Ernie Grunfeld decided not to wait until the offseason to address some of the team’s problems. In a three team trade, Grunfeld sent off locker room headaches JaVale McGee and Nick Young and brought in Nene and Brian Cook. The move seemed to work as the Wizards finished the season winning six straight.

In July, the team also released Andray Blatche and brought in Emeka Okafor and Trevor Ariza in a trade for Rashard Lewis.  The organization declared loudly that they were no longer a lottery team, largely based on the team’s assumption that Wall would be playing.

In September, the team announced that Wall had suffered a stress injury to his knee and he would not be able to start the season.  Without the key player the team had been built around, the Wizards didn’t stand a chance and finished out 2012 with the worst record in the NBA at 4-24.

New Year’s Resolution: Get Wall back, avoid the worst record in NBA history, bring in talent in the offseason.

The Wizards might not be having a good season, but the Capitals haven’t had any season at all. The NHL lockout has now stretched on at ridiculous length, forcing the cancellation of all games from October through December and into January.

As slow as things may be now, the beginning of 2012 was very eventful. The Caps found themselves struggling to transition from an offensive mentality to a defensive one under new coach Dale Hunter. The team did manage to claw its way to a seventh place finish and a matchup with Boston.  Thanks to the emergence of young Braden Holtby in goal, the Caps and Bruins played the closest playoff series in NHL history.  Game seven went to overtime where Joel Ward knocked in a rebound in one of the most exciting games in the history of the organization.

The Caps met an even tougher matchup in round two against the New York Rangers and Ward went from hero to goat.  In game five with the series tied at two and the Caps holding onto a two-goal lead, Ward was called for a double-minor high sticking penalty.  The Rangers scored on both, including the game-tying goal with 6.1 seconds left, and won in overtime.  The Caps forced a game seven yet again, but fell in Madison Square Garden.

At the end of the season, Hunter decided to return to Ontario, so the reins were passed to another former Caps’ captain, Adam Oates, who by now must be dying to prove himself.

New Year’s Resolution: PLAY!!!

In another mad dash to the playoffs, DC United suddenly found themselves in dire straits as leading scorer Dwayne De Rosario went down with a knee injury. United led by head coach Ben Olsen, however, did not lose again for the rest of the season and clinched their first playoff berth in five years. After a thrilling victory over rival New York, United’s season came to an end in the conference finals against Houston.

New Year’s Resolution: Find consistency and return to the playoffs.

For the latest DC sports news, follow me on Twitter @TheDC_Sportsguy

Wizards Walk Away from Deal for Harden

There was a sense of cautious optimism surrounding the Wizards heading into the 2012-13 season.  After a 3-20 start, however, expectations have lowered considerably.  John Wall has yet to play and the roster has been exposed without him.

Do you think James Harden could have helped?

Last week, it was leaked by several anonymous sources that the Wizards passed up a deal for James Harden in the offseason.  Sources vary on what Oklahoma City was asking for with some reports saying it would have taken Bradley Beal and Chris Singleton and others saying the Thunder wanted an established player as part of the deal.  The Wizards, however, walked away.

What was the issue?  Money.  The sources again vary on the specifics.  The Washington Post reported that the Wizards would have been subject to the luxury tax with the addition of Harden’s contract.  Other outlets reported that owner Ted Leonsis did not want to commit $80 million to Harden.  Leonsis has come out and denied both reports.

I am always hesitant to argue that an owner is not committed to building a winning franchise, but this looks really bad. Owners are usually successful businessmen who are savvy enough to understand that winning teams put people in seats.  There are always exceptions to the rule and I know there are dysfunctional franchises with terrible owners out there, but I have a hard time believing this is one of those cases.

Leonsis rebuilt the Capitals from one of the least profitable organizations to one of the most popular teams in the NHL.  He did it by giving out big contracts to star players, but the team went through a lengthy rebuilding process to get there.  I am sure the blueprint for the Wizards is probably pretty similar.

The problem is that the NBA is a different animal than the NHL.  The NBA is the most star driven sports league in America.  When you have the chance to bring one in at a relatively cheap price, you have to pull the trigger, especially when have no other way of attracting stars to come to the team.

Right now, there is no reason for a star player to sign in DC.  The team is terrible and DC is not really considered a “basketball” town.  When a star has a chance to sign with Miami, Boston, the Lakers, or Washington, in most cases the Wizards are going to be on the bottom of that list.

How do teams like Oklahoma City grow into a powerhouse?  They draft a star to build around.  Once that player establishes himself, it becomes easier to entice other players to sign with you.  No doubt that was the team’s plan with Wall which makes the timing of his injury potentially devastating.  The third year is often a make or break year for young talent.  If Wall is truly a budding young star, he needed to have a breakout year.

Would a free agent be more excited about playing with Wall or Kyrie Irving?  Wall is hoping his injury won’t keep him out for the entire season, Irving is playing like a superstar.  Out of sight, out of mind.

The Wizards have not done nearly enough to give hope to the fan base since Leonsis took over.  They got rid of the morons, drafted Wall, and traded for Nene.  That’s about it.  With people already questioning if Leonsis is committed to building the Wizards into a winning franchise, a report saying he turned his back on a player like Harden because he was too expensive just adds fuel to the fire.  The Wizards brought in Emeka Okafor and Trevor Ariza, but Harden is where you draw the line?

There’s no guarantee Harden would be playing as well in DC as he is in Houston and even then Houston is only seventh in the West.  Still, the Wizards look absolutely pathetic.  Harden would have given fans something to watch while waiting for Wall.  Now, the Wizards have nothing to draw the fans.  A $50 ticket to watch Jan Vessely and Jordan Crawford is a tough sell.  Even when Wall does come back, he certainly won’t be able to save the season.  It’s not even Christmas yet, but the season already feels lost.

Of course all of this is easy for me to say, it’s not my $80 million. After years of turmoil and pathetic seasons, however, you have to prove to your fan base that you are committed to making the team better.  When you pass up an opportunity to bring in Harden because he would cost too much, it sends the wrong message to fans and potential free agents.  If bringing in players like Harden isn’t part of the plan, maybe it’s time to make a new plan.

Wizards' problems go beyond their injured stars

All you could do was laugh.

Down by one to Atlanta, Martell Webster hit a layup as the buzzer sounded. The shot initially counted and the Wizards looked as if they had finally gotten their first win.  The referees conferred, reviewed the video, and declared the shot was late. The Wizards fell to a franchise-worst 0-10.

All the high hopes and expectations have been derailed in a single month. The Wizards spent much of the offseason declaring they were no longer a lottery team, that they could compete for a playoff spot. It certainly does not look like that’s going to happen.

The biggest issue the Wizards have faced is health. Both John Wall and Nene, the team’s two most important players, were injured to start the season. It is no secret that the Wizards had hoped to build a team around Wall. When they were suddenly left with nothing more than a supporting cast, struggles were sure to follow.

To start the season 0-10, however, is not just bad, but historically bad. Only 13 teams in NBA history have started 0-10.  Don’t worry though, the Wizards have only lost by an average of 7 points, the best of those 13.  Congratulations, you are the best, worst team of all time.

As bad as things are, however, it is tough to put the blame on anyone on the court or on head coach Randy Wittman.  The players do look like they are legitimately trying out there.  Wittman is doing absolutely everything he can think of to right the ship.  While his news conferences and roster moves sometimes appear utterly desperate, it is hard to blame him for trying to get creative with a bad roster.

Do you think the Clippers would struggle without Blake Griffin and Chris Paul?  How about the Heat if they played without Lebron James and Dwayne Wade?  Of course no amount of injuries can justify perpetually losing in the NBA, but in my mind it does shift the blame from Wittman and the team to the front office.

The real mistake the Wizards made was building a team around a center whose health was a legitimate concern and a still unproven star point guard.  Nene has played ten seasons in the NBA and injuries have shortened his season to less than 70 games in five of those seasons.  He played a total of 39 games last year.

John Wall has not played more than 70 games in either season of his still short NBA career.  The concern with Wall, however, is not injury, but whether or not he will become the superstar talent the Wizards hoped he would be when they drafted him number one overall pick in the draft.

Wall is a very good point guard and his future looks bright, but he is not the cornerstone talent that franchises can build around.  The Wizards need to change their approach from bringing in supporting talent to bringing in star talent.  Granted that is easier said than done in today’s NBA where stars tend to follow stars, but let’s get realistic here.  Wall is not an elite talent capable of taking the Wizards to the next level by himself.

Nene was a good, albeit fragile, addition.  His presence addressed a real need for defense and leadership, but his health makes him difficult to rely on.  Bringing in Trevor Ariza and Emeka Okafor is not the answer and not just because of their early season struggles.  Both players are nice additions, but there was a reason they were traded.  New Orleans needed to get out from under their bad contracts.  “Bad contracts” are only bad when players are getting paid a lot more than they are worth.  Kobe Bryant makes a lot of money too, but the Lakers aren’t trying to trade him.

The Wizards would be a lot better with a healthy Wall and Nene in their lineup, but that does not justify an 0-10 start.  What this has shown is just how bad the “supporting cast” really is.  When Cleveland lost Lebron to the infamous “decision”, they did not start 0-10 the following season.  It is time to get back to the drawing board for Ernie Grunfeld and the Wizards.

Much Improved Wizards Team Hopes to Take Next Step

The Wizards sent a message at the end of last season; they were ready to turn the page on this embarrassing chapter in their history.  They were tired of the losing and of the embarrassing headlines off the court.

Head coach Flip Saunders was fired midway through the season, resident knuckleheads JaVale McGee and Nick Young were traded away for Nene and Brian Cook, and Andray Blatche was sent packing.  The moves had immediate results as the Wizards finished the 2011-2012 winning six straight and eight of their last ten.

The question, of course, is whether that success will continue this season.  The Wizards continued to improve in the offseason by trading the oft-injured and very expensive Rashard Lewis for Emeka Okafor and Trevor Ariza.  They also drafted the talented perimeter shooter Bradley Beal.

Looking at this new roster, there’s no doubt that it is a much improved squad.  McGee and Young were both talented, but the lack of leadership or discipline on this young team made DC a bad fit for them.  Nene gave this team instant leadership and, paired with Okafor, the Wizards suddenly look very strong in the paint.

Offensively, however, this team may struggle.  Beal looks to be a year away from being a top threat.  While he looked great in the Summer League, he has struggled in the preseason including a zero point performance in the finale against San Antonio.

Ariza, playing on his third team in four years, has also struggled in the preseason.  He is playing for his third team in four seasons, so perhaps some growing pains are to be expected, but the Wizards were expecting him to start and be a top offensive threat for them.  The fact that he is still struggling to produce is troubling.

The biggest problem facing the team right now is injuries.  John Wall needed to continue to prove himself to be a star this season, but he will sit the first month with a stress injury to his left knee.  Nene continues to struggle with plantar fasciitis in his left foot making his return to the team uncertain.  Kevin Seraphin, Chris Singleton, Trevor Booker, and Okafor have all missed games in the preseason because of an illness or injury.  It doesn’t matter what kind of roster the Wizards have assembled, if they can’t stay healthy they will struggle to find any success.

Still, it’s hard to argue against he moves the Wizards have made and the roster is undeniably more formidable now than it has been in several years.  Defense will be the key as this team continues to find its offensive identity.  Perimeter shooting will still be an issue, but there’s plenty to like about where this team is going.  If they can get healthy, they could potentially compete for one of the last playoff spots.  That might not sound like a glamorous outlook, but after four straight lottery years an eighth place finish sounds pretty good to me and probably sounds good to the Wizards as well.

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Are the Wizards Destined for Another Era of Mediocrity?

Last week, the Wizards took Bradley Beal with the number 3 overall pick and addressed a severe need for perimeter shooting.  For many Wizards’ fans, things are starting to look up.  Most likely the Wizards will start Nene and Emeka Okafor up front, Trevor Ariza at forward, Beal at guard, and of course John Wall at point guard.  By no means is this a joke roster anymore, but how far can they go?  In today’s NBA, are the Wizards already approaching their ceiling?

This may sound ridiculous, but think about it.  Lebron James and the big 3 changed NBA free agency.  The NBA is driven more by its stars than any other sport, and Lebron showed how they can group together to win a championship.  Now the stars come together and pick storied franchises or big markets and the smaller markets have to cross their fingers and hope for a superstar in the draft.

The Knicks, the Heat, the Celtics, the Bulls, and the Lakers will always be relevant.  GMs can always make these teams attractive to free agents.  Other teams struggle to bring in big names unless they’ve drafter a superstar already.  Nobody cared about the Cleveland Cavaliers before Lebron came and no one has cared about them since he left.  There is no question that the Wizards have gotten better this offseason, but how will they continue to build?

Let’s say next season the Wizards finish in the top ten in the conference.  They play better, but in the end, finish just out of the playoffs.  The year after, they do even better.  Maybe they aren’t up there with Miami or Chicago, but they finish as a middle playoff team.  Perhaps they even make it out of the first round.  Then what?  I see this roster developing in much the same way as the Wizards of the Gilbert Arenas error, oops, I mean “era”.  Only once did that team make it past the first round.  Some of you may say that’s not fair as the Wizards kept coming up against the Lebron-led Cavs, but that’s my point.  The Wizards could not beat a team with a major superstar.  They put together a solid roster that did well in the regular season, but they never truly competed for a championship because they did not have their own major superstar.  Arenas was good, but he was never one of the elite; he was never a Lebron, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant, Dirk Nowitzki, Tim Duncan, etc.  He was not good enough for them to build around and he was not notable enough to bring in top free agents.

If the Wizards climb in the standings, they will fall on the draft board.  Yes, the draft lottery allows for the possibility that the Wizards could still land a top player, but I think it is a safe bet that John Wall will be the key player for this team.  It is pivotal that he continues to develop or the Wizards will continue to struggle to bring in free agents.  The best players simply are not looking to DC.  If Wall establishes himself as a top player, the Wizards may be able to continue to build.  If not, then the Wizards will reach their ceiling a lot faster then we all are hoping.