Saturday, May 11, 2013

Is Zimmermann the best pitcher on the Nationals?

Expectations were high for the Nationals’ rotation heading into the season. The team boasts three ace-caliber pitchers and, based on their performance last year, starting pitching was thought of as a strength. With no innings-limit hovering over Stephen Strasburg’s head and Gio Gonzalez coming off a 21 win season, it was not hard to imagine a pitcher establishing himself as a Cy Young contender.

Thirty-five games into the season, one pitcher has indeed established himself, but not the one you may have thought.

Jordan Zimmermann is the often-overlooked star of this rotation. He has been the most consistent pitcher by far this season and is arguably responsible for bringing the Nationals out of their recent slump.

That’s quite an accomplishment for a player who only plays once every five games.

Zimmermann was drafted by the Nationals in 2007 and made his major league debut April 20, 2009. In August of that year, however, he underwent Tommy John surgery and thus fell under the radar.

Zimmermann returned on August 26, 2010, but his return was also over-shadowed. On that same day, the Nationals learned that their new phenom, Strasburg, would be undergoing Tommy John surgery as well.

The return of a relatively unknown pitcher did not seem to matter.

Since that time, however, Zimmermann has established himself as one of the league’s best pitchers.

With no innings limit, Strasburg was expected to pitch like the ace we all know he can be. In his seven starts this season, he has a 1-4 record with a 3.45 ERA and five homeruns allowed.

Gio has struggled even more than Strasburg. He has gotten better run support than Strasburg, helping him reach a 3-2 record, but he has a 4.97 ERA and has also allowed five homeruns.

Zimmermann on the other hand, continues to dominate. He leads the team with a 6-1 record and a 1.59 ERA. He has allowed only two homeruns and a WHIP of 0.82. He pitched eight scoreless innings in Atlanta to help the Nationals earn their first win of the season against their divisional rivals. Since that game, the Nationals have won five of their next six, pulling the team out of its slump.

Strasburg is one of the best pitching talents in the league and I have no doubt he will play better as the season goes along. Likewise, I expect Gio to rebound as well. But the Nationals currently have a record of 20-15. Imagine where they would be without Zimmermann.

Zimmermann is eligible for arbitration in 2015. It will be hard for the Nationals to keep him, as it is hard to pay three aces to remain in your rotation. He is arguably the best pitcher in baseball right now and he is third in this rotation.

The point is that with Strasburg and Gio, it appeared Zimmermann would be expendable and too expensive to keep. No doubt it will be hard to pay him what he is worth while keeping him at third in the rotation, but do not dismiss how important he is to this team right now. He may not be as expendable as many have assumed.

Wednesday, May 1, 2013

Caps-Rangers preview

And so they meet again.

For the third year in a row and the fourth time in five seasons, the Washington Capitals will meet the New York Rangers in the playoffs. Every year these teams take very different routes to the playoffs and this year was no different.

Every Caps’ fan knows the roller coaster season the Caps have had. After starting the season 2-8-1, the Caps went on a tear. They looked like a lottery team and finished as one of the hottest teams in the league. Much of their success coincided with the resurgence of Alex Ovechkin, who wrapped up his third career Rocket Richard Trophy for most goals in the league. Despite the rocky start, the Caps rebounded to win the last ever Southeast Division Championship, their fifth in six years and seventh in team history.

The Caps head into the postseason having won 11 of their past 13, but really have been riding a hot streak for half the season now. That kind of streak and confidence can go a long way in the postseason, as the defending champion LA Kings can attest to.

Similarly, the Rangers are riding their own streak having gone 10-3-1 in the month of April which was sorely needed as the Rangers have been underachieving all season long. Will their new found confidence be enough to lead them past the Caps?

Offensive Key: Which offense will stay hot?

New York lost in the Eastern Conference Finals last season to New Jersey. With the addition of star winger Rick Nash in the off season the Rangers looked poised to challenge for the Stanley Cup, but were unable to gain the type of offensive veracity most people envisioned. They finished the season with 2.6 goals per game, good for 15th in the NHL. John Tortorella, the angry grandfather of NHL coaches, might not be the right coach for the roster this team has assembled.

The Ranger's recent run, however, came after a deadline trade with Columbus that sent Marion Gaborik to Columbus and brought in Derik Brassard, among others. The result thus far has been the type of offensive productions the Rangers have sought all year. Is this is a sign of improvement or simply a recent hot-streak that will cool down in the postseason?

It is well known how good the Caps are offensively, the question is whether the Rangers will be able to keep up.

Defensive Key: Can the Caps control their defensive zone?

The Rangers may have struggled to score but with their offensive talent they can put together a potent attack at any time.

Defensively, the Caps have really struggled to control their own crease. Tortorella’s teams always like to agitate and I expect on every offensive shift, someone will plant himself in front of Braden Holtby and dare the defense to kick him out.

The Caps also are terrible at covering the cross-ice pass. The defense can at times get sucked into a play and lose track of an opposing winger, leaving them open for an easy strike.

Controlling the crease will be a major key for the Caps. With the Rangers’ recent offensive surge, however, the Caps also cannot afford to lose track of New York’s dangerous scorers.

Goalie key: How many games can Lundqvist steal?

The Rangers managed to climb into the playoffs thanks to star goaltender Henrik Lundqvist. In the recent history between the Caps and Rangers, many players have come and gone. Lundqvist, however, has been there for all three of the recent series and he has been a rock each time. He will be critical in this series.

The Caps have the fourth best offense in the league and the top ranked power play. The Caps have been able at times to score on Lundqvist, but he is more than capable of stealing a game or two for the Rangers in this series and he will have to for the Rangers to have any chance.

Opposite him, will be Braden Holtby who established himself last year when he was thrust into the spotlight thanks to injuries to both Tomas Vokoun and Michal Neuvirth. Holtby unexpectedly found himself as the starting goalie in the playoffs and he was fantastic. The Caps will not rely on Holtby as much as the Rangers will rely on Lundqvist, but he will still need to be strong in this series if the Caps hope to win.

Special teams key: Can the Rangers stay disciplined?

The Caps have the best power play in the league. The Rangers have the 15th penalty kill. They are extremely aggressive, but to a fault. There are times when all four penalty killers will swarm to the puck, leaving someone alone and open in front of the net. The Rangers know they cannot do that against Ovechkin and the Caps because they will be shredded. If Ovechkin finds himself alone and by himself, it will not matter who’s in net.

Still, unless you see drastic improvement from the Rangers, the power play will be an obvious strength for the Caps.

As I said before, Tortorella coached teams love to agitate their opponents. They will play very physically against the Caps, but they must stay disciplined. The Rangers cannot afford to give the Caps too many chances on the power play or the Caps will make them pay.

Prediction:

Offense will decide this series. The Rangers need to score like the team everyone thought they would be all season long and the Caps need to score like the team we’ve seen in the second half of the season. More specifically, Ovechkin needs to score like the player we’ve seen in the second half.

Ovechkin leads the team (and the league) with 32 goals. Troy Brouwer is second on the team with 19 and Mike Ribeiro is third with 13. For you math whizzes out there, that means Ovechkin has more goals than both Brouwer and Ribeiro combined. You can say the Caps need to get secondary scoring, but who are we kidding? Ovechkin got them here; the postseason is not the time to suddenly depend on secondary scoring.

The Caps will win this series if Ovechkin can score five goals. That’s a tall task for a playoff series and against a goalie like Lundqvist, but the Caps will need that kind of production from him to survive.

The hotter Ovechkin remains, the better the Caps will fare against their familiar foes.

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Monday, April 29, 2013

Redskins bolster roster with 2013 draft

The Redskins may have sat out of the first round of the draft, but they still managed to bring in big time talent and address multiple needs. Heading into Thursday, the Redskins needed to bolster the secondary and bring in depth at tight end, running back, and linebacker.

That’s exactly what they did.

The most glaring need was the secondary and they brought in CB David Amerson, S Phillip Thomas, and S Bacarri Rambo. All three are playmakers who create turnovers and all three have starting potential, including Rambo who was taken in the sixth round. He was an absolute steal in the sixth, falling because of two failed drug tests while at Georgia. With the issues the Redskins have had in the past with Fred Davis and Trent Williams, picking Rambo is extremely risky, but as he fell so far it made a lot of sense and I personally love the pick.

In Jordan Reed, the Redskins picked up tight end depth. Davis is only signed for a year and there are real questions as to whether Logan Paulsen or Niles Paul can develop into a legitimate receiving threats. Reed at the very least ensures that the Redskins will not be quite as thin should they lose Davis to injury or suspension.

In typical Mike Shanahan fashion, the Redskins also took two running backs in the later rounds. Chris Thompson was taken in the fourth round and Jawan Jamison in the sevent. The Redskins needed a change of pace running back behind Alfred Morris and Evan Royster was unable to take advantage of his opportunities last season with Roy Helu out due to injury. With Helu’s health a constant concern, the Redskins needed to find another option. Shanahan is known for finding talented running backs in the later rounds such as Morris and Terrell Davis, both of whom were sixth round picks. The fact that Shanahan took Chris Thompson in the fifth round should tell you how confident he is in Thompson’s abilities.

The only real questionable pick for me is outside linebacker Brandon Jenkins. Jenkins relied too much on his quickness in college, but his 40 times were slow. At the combine he clocked in at 4.7 seconds, which is not bad, but at his pro day he ran over five seconds twice. Of course 40 times should be taken with a grain of salt, they don’t always translate to football skills. Still, I see Jenkins' ceiling as a depth player at the very best.

With the $18 million cap penalty, the draft was critical for the Redskins to improve their roster. I think it is clear they did so. I do not see any immediate starters among these picks, but that is not to say they will not contribute at all this season and I believe this team is clearly better in the long run based on this draft.

Even without a first round draft pick, the 2013 draft was a successful one for the Redskins.