Thursday, April 18, 2013

Wizards need to get healthy in the offseason

The Wizards closed the 2012-13 season Wednesday night with a 95-92 loss in Chicago. The team finished 29-53 on the year, good for 12thin the East and will miss the playoffs yet again.

Yet, despite their record, the Wizards appeared to have improved tremendously this season.

When this team was healthy, they were one of the most competitive in the league. They beat some of the best clubss including Memphis, Indiana, and Denver in Denver. The roster appeared to be as good as advertised prior to the season when the team felt they could compete for the playoffs.

Early season injuries, however, derailed any postseason hopes the Wizards may have had.

Health was by far the team’s biggest problem. John Wall was sidelined for the first two months of the season with a stress fracture in his knee and Bradley Beal missed the last month with a similar stress injury. Nene has battled a variety of injuries all year, severely limiting his time and effectiveness on the court.

The number of injuries this team dealt with over the season makes it hard to accurately grade the Wizards’ season. They have missed the playoffs yet again, but for the second half of the season they were a competitive team.

Not knowing how to grade them makes it hard to improve upon it and I believe next year’s starting five will look very similar to this season’s.

Of the Wizards’ five starters, only Martell Webster is not currently under contract and the other four are unlikely to lose their spots. How the Wizards may look to improve their roster will depend greatly on where they end up in the draft and who is still available when it is their turn.

With all the talk surrounding Wall, I expect the Wizards to extend him to a max contract or something close to it. With Trevor Ariza, Emeka Okafor, and Nene all earning ridiculous salaries, the Wizards will most likely not making any big moves in free agency. If the team wants to improve, it will be through the draft.

Last year, perimeter shooting was the obvious need. This year, there are many spots the Wizards need to improve upon, but no single glaring weakness.

In terms of the backcourt, Wall and Beal are obviously the anchors, but the Wizards still need to improve their shooting and depth. Small forward is probably the most obvious need. Webster is unsigned and Ariza is a much more effective sixth man than starter. If the Wizards drop too far in the draft, however, it is likely that players like Shabazz Muhammad and Otto Porter Jr. will be gone. Webster may not be the long-term solution at starter, but Webster and Ariza are a good enough tandem to throw out for one more season.

The Wizards could also look at big men. Nene’s health is a question mark. He always plays injured and the team suffers when he is out of the lineup. Okafor is on the last year of his contract. The Wizards could look for developmental types at power forward or center. Both Nene and Okafor are paid too much to sit on the bench, but the Wizards will need to replace both in the near future.

Like this season, much of next season’s success will depend on the health and durability of the team. If Wall, Beal, and Nene are all healthy, the Wizards are at worst a .500 team. With a strong draft and offseason, the Wizards could be a playoff team next year and could further improve for 2014-15 when they emerge from under the shadow of Okafor and Ariza’s deals.

Progress may be slow, but the Wizards do appear to finally be on the right track.

Saturday, April 13, 2013

Haren struggles early, but seems likely to improve

With the departure of Edwin Jackson, the Nationals had a hole in their rotation to fill heading into the offseason. Jackson was the least dependable starter for the Nationals, so the team had the opportunity to bolster their already dominant rotation.

So far, Dan Haren has not lived up to the expectations of a World Series contending team.

Through two starts, Haren has done his best Chien-Ming Wang impression, racking up a 9.00 ERA. In 9.0 innings pitched, he’s allowed 19 hits, nine runs, and four homeruns. As there were several question marks surrounding Haren coming into this season, this kind of start has already made Nats’ fans very nervous.

Haren has been plagued by back and hip problems for the past two seasons. He missed a few starts last season for the Angels and his ERA bumped up to 4.33 on the season, his highest since 2004 when he was a late-season call-up. If he could put those issues behind him, based on his past success he would undoubtedly be an upgrade from Jackson. If his first start against Cincinnati was any indication, Haren still has a ways to go.

It is far too early to judge him just yet, however. Two games is an absurdly small sample size. It is important to remember that Haren’s struggles will be magnified by the fact that he plays for a team with four other very good starters, three of whom could be aces on most MLB teams. The expectations fans have for the Nationals are going to lead many to over react to Haren’s struggles, but I think there’s reason to be hopeful Haren will improve.

Haren’s first game was a disaster, there’s no way to sugarcoat it. In four innings, he gave up nine hits, six runs, and four homeruns. The Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati, however, is known as a hitter’s park, partly explaining some of the homeruns he gave up. Haren’s performance also was vastly improved in his second game against the White Sox where he gave up only three runs and no homeruns in five innings. He has thrown ten strikeouts and no walks showing he has had control of his pitches. That leaves me confident that he will be able to turn things around.

Haren may have struggled to start the season, but there is plenty of time to return to form. It is definitely not time to panic Nats’ fans, Haren will be fine.

Sunday, April 7, 2013

McPhee rolls the dice on this season, trades Forsberg for Erat

The Capitals headed into the trade deadline unsure of where they stood. The team found themselves right at the edge between playoff contention and a lost season. The only real question seemed to be whether the Caps would keep Mike Ribeiro.

Then the media was told to get their cameras ready.

Rather than sitting on his hands as many had expected, General Manager George McPhee made a bold trade involving one the team’s top prospects.

The Caps traded Filip Forsberg to the Nashville Predators in exchange for Martin Erat and prospect Michael Latta. The Caps also chose not to move Ribeiro. In so doing McPhee sent a strong message to the team about his expectations for the season.

Erat is a top six winger who consistently produces 50 points per season. He is fast and very smart on the ice. It may take a few games for him to adjust to his new team and system, but he will be able to contribute offensively right away.

Forsberg was the 11th overall pick in the 2012 NHL draft and widely hailed as one of the best prospects in the Caps’ system. He has great offensive skills and the potentil to become a top line winger. There are questions, however, over his speed and how long it may take Forsberg to develop into an NHL talent.

The latter may have been the sticking point.

The Caps still have top-notch talent in Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom and both are entering the prime of their careers. The championship window for this team may be closed by the time Forsberg began to reach his NHL potential and McPhee still feels this team is ready to compete now.

So while the Penguins added Jarome Iginla, Jussi Jokinen, and Brenden Morrow and the Bruins added Jaromir Jagr, the Caps added Erat? Is that really the move that will propel them to a Cup run?

Probably not, but there are three important things to keep in mind. First, the Caps are not as bad as their record. The Caps had a new coach with a new system and no training camp to implement it. They were always going to start slowly. Now the Caps have won three straight and seven of their last nine. We are beginning to see what this team could have been all season.

Second, this move was not made for this year alone. Erat has two years remaining on his contract. Since Oates was hired so late into the offseason, this was really the first major addition made with Oates in mind. This is a player who will be here next season who the Caps think can thrive in Oates' system.

Lastly, as the Kings showed us last year, it does not matter where you are in the standings come playoff time, you just have to get in. That is especially true this year with the condensed season; the better teams have not been able to separate themselves from the pack as they would have in a regular 82 game season.

McPhee managed to add a player than can help the offense both now and next season. The only problem is that in Nashville, Erat was more of a set-up man than a scorer which is what the Caps really needed. Still, as Nashville plays a more defensive system, with his puck handling skills and speed he may be able to thrive under Oates and provide a scoring touch this team has been missing since Alexander Semin's departure in the offseason.

Forsberg is a steep price, but if McPhee did have questions about his abilities at the NHL level then perhaps it is better to trade him now while his stock remains high.

A quick note: Erat left last night’s game against Florida when he was hit from behind by Erik Gudbranson and suffered a lower body injury. As of now, there has been now word as to the severity of that injury.

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Wednesday, April 3, 2013

What's wrong with Neuvirth?

Michal Neuvirth was supposedly scheduled to start Sunday when the Capitals traveled to Philadelphia, but he was held out as a precaution after taking an Ovechkin shot to the mask in practice the day before.

It was unfortunate timing for Neuvirth, but oddly enough it was the third time this season Neuvirth was scheduled to start and could not. For someone who’s starts have been few and far between, this seems a bit too curious.

Something does not smell right about this.

Since starting five of the team’s first seven games, Neuvirth has only started four of the last 29. He came in one other game in relief of Braden Holtby, but was pulled quickly during one of his own starts.

So Adam Oates has decided Holtby is his number one goalie, there’s nothing wrong with that. That’s simply part of the business.

The problem, however, is that Oates seems to be going out of his way not to play Neuvirth.

Conventional wisdom in the NHL is to switch your starters when your team plays on consecutive nights. Holtby, however, has played on consecutive nights three times this season. Perhaps Oates is not worried about tiring out his starter in a shortened season, but don’t forget, Holtby was playing in Hershey during the lockout.

The NHL may be playing a shortened season, but Holtby is not.

This brings me back to my original point. Three times this season Neuvirth has been expected to play and at the last second plans changed.

In two of those instances, Neuvirth was reportedly sick. This past weekend the team was evidently worried about a possible concussion.

I would have no questions about the team’s caution after Neuvirth took a puck to the mask, but as this is the third time something has happened just as he was supposed to play, it makes me question whether something else is going on.

I won’t argue that Neuvirth is a better goalie than Holtby. He’s not. Holtby deserves to be the top goalie. Neuvirth is, however, an above average goalie who has proven his abilities with this team. Had he not gotten injured late in the season last year, he would have been the team’s starting goalie in the playoffs. At the very least, he is good enough to relieve Holtby on consecutive nights.

I cannot tell you for sure what is going on; whether Neuvirth has fallen out of favor with Oates, if there is some sort of lingering injury, or whether Neuvirth himself has checked out mentally. What I can tell you is that Neuvirth started seven of the first 11 games. In that eleventh game in Pittsburgh, Neuvirth was pulled in the second period after allowing only two goals on 11 shots. It was too quick in my opinion and he has only started twice in the 25 games since.

Holtby is the better goalie, but Neuvirth’s play was not poor enough to justify such a complete shutdown.

If something happened, it is likely that it happened around that game in Pittsburgh. Was there an injury we are not aware of? Did Neuvirth resent the early hook? Did Oates completely lose faith in his backup goalie? Is Oates so desperate to make the playoffs he refuses to rest his starter?

I can’t answer these questions. What I can say is that teams have backup goalies for a reason. The Caps are fortunate to have a starting caliber goalie as their backup; it makes no sense not to use him.

If there is a situation between Neuvirth and the Oates, then Neuvirth needs to be traded before the deadline later today. You cannot have a situation where a goalie and coach do not trust one another. Should Holtby get injured down the stretch, whom does Oates turn to?

If you trust him, play him. If you don’t, then move him while you have the chance.

It’s possible I’ve read too much into this situation, but look at the facts. Neuvirth starts seven out of 11 games, he is pulled quickly in one game, and starts only twice in the next 25. Three times Holtby has played in consecutive games and three times Neuvirth has had to bow out of the precious few starts he’s been projected to play.

Something is definitely going on here.

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