Nationals Preview: Can the Nationals handle the expectations?

The Nationals came into last season declaring that the rebuild was over, that they were going to raise eyebrows around the league. Few expected them to be the best team in baseball.

Despite all their success however, their season came to an end in devastating fashion as they gave up a massive lead to St. Louis to lose in game five. This year, they are a little older, a little wiser, and a lot better. They boast what many believe to be the best roster in the MLB. Given last season’s success and the players acquired in the offseason, the expectations for this team have skyrocketed.

The Nationals will open the season Monday against the Miami Marlins. Here are the questions facing this team headed into what many believe could be a World Series season.

Will the Nationals’ rotation remain as dominant on the mound?

The Nationals are returning four of their five starters from last season’s rotation with Edwin Jackson the only defector. Jackson was the weakest link in what was arguably the best rotation in baseball. Dan Haren was brought in to replace him, but he has struggled this spring giving up an ERA of 6.39 in only six games. You cannot read too much into spring training, but his inability to control his pitches and his injury history definitely are causes for concern.

Still, Haren is expected to be the team’s fifth starter so even if he does not play well he will not drag the team down too far. The team’s plan last year was for Chien Ming-Wang to be the team’s fifth starter and it would be hard for Haren to do much worse. If Haren can return to form, he can be an upgrade from Jackson.

There is no reason to doubt that Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, and Ross Detwieler will not be able to pick up where they left off last season. Strasburg will also be entering this season with no limitations. As unbelievable as it may seem, this rotation could actually be better than last year.

The wildcard of course is injuries. The rotation was remarkably healthy last year as none of their five starters missed a single start due to injury. Statistically speaking, that is not likely to happen again, but if they can stay healthy they will continue to frustrate batters around the league.

How will the new additions fit into the team?

In addition to Haren, the Nationals also added OF Denard Span and closer Rafael Soriano. Span will be the leadoff hitter the team desperately missed last season. While his acquisition ultimately led to the trade of Michael Morse, the Nationals needed a leadoff hitter more than they needed Morse’s power. Span fills one of the few holes that still remained from last season’s team.

Soriano was an unexpected, but welcome addition. The Nationals did not have a single designated closer last season choosing instead to have more of a closer by committee approach and as a result were sent packing when they needed a save the most. Drew Storen is a good pitcher, but it will take a long time for Nationals’ fans to forget last season’s game five collapse.

It was with that game in mind no doubt that led Rizzo to sign Soriano.

Soriano has 132 career saves, while Storen has only 52. He is an established closer who can finish games in pressure situations. With a deep playoff run being the goal, a strong closer could be an invaluable addition to the team.

How good will Bryce Harper be?

It is important to remember that Spring Training stats do not matter and do not always indicate what will happen in the regular season. Having said that, if Harper hits anything close to what he’s done this spring, he will be one of the most dangerous hitters in the MLB.

Harper has a .478 AVG, .500 OBP, .716 SLG, and 1.216 OPS this spring. Those are some impressive numbers, especially when you consider the fact that he is still 20 years old.

It will be interesting to see how pitchers pitch to him this year. The normal progression for young batters is that pitchers through a lot of fast balls at them to start. Once they adjust to the speed of the majors, pitchers begin using off-speed pitches instead. Once they adjust to that, pitchers usually will have a blueprint of where batters struggle the most.

Harper has already gone through this progression with pitchers and he’s still getting better. I’ve heard a lot of analysts say he should be an MVP candidate this season and why not? Mike Trout was a legitimate MVP candidate last year when he was 20. Harper certainly has the skill set to be a dynamic player.

Perhaps that is expecting a bit too much from Harper and not giving enough credit to Trout’s remarkable season, but I think it would be a disappointment to both fans and Harper himself if he was not the Nationals’ best player this season.

Is the lack of left-handed relievers a cause for concern?

The Nationals have said they are comfortable with their relievers’ abilities against left-handed batters, but I am skeptical.

Teams are going to throw every lefty pinch hitter they have in the dugout in every tight, late game situation and force the Nationals to justify their faith in their bullpen.

The good news is that we will know in a month or so whether there’s a problem. If the team has struggled against lefties, Rizzo will undoubtedly seek out a trade. He has shown that he is all in on this season and will do what he can to make this team playoff-ready.

Even with the bullpen the team has, they will remain the best team in the league. The problem is what happens in the playoffs when the stakes are higher, and the Nationals have no left-handed relievers?

This is the only real weakness I see on this team and I hope it does not end of hurting them when it matters most.

Predictions?

The Nationals were the best team in baseball last season and they got even better in the offseason. The Braves improved considerably as well, but the Nationals are still the front-runners in the NL East leading into the season.

The only thing that makes me nervous is that history tells you the best team on paper frequently does not turn out to be the best team on the field. Injuries could pop up as the Nationals remained remarkably healthy last year and the strength of the bullpen is a question mark.

Sometimes, good teams just do not live up to expectations. The mental strain of being the best team may get the best of the Nats, but that’s why having Davey Johnson at the helm for one more year is crucial. If anyone can keep tabs on the Nationals’ mentality, it’s him.

The Braves will be good, but not as good as the Nationals who will end up winning the division. If they do not, it will be a huge disappointment.

But this season will not be about regular season accolades, it will be about the playoffs. The Nationals appear to be capable of winning the World Series and probably anything short of an NL pennant will be looked at as a failure.

The only weakness this team may potentially have is the bullpen, but the addition of Soriano allows for greater flexibility and if need be, Rizzo will add a left-handed reliever some time during the season. I believe the Nationals will win the division and the NL pennant, but will come up short in the World Series.

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Caps facing tough decisions at trade deadline

For the Caps, this week was do or die. A back-to-back matchup with the division-leading Jets was the Caps’ last chance to turn things around this season. Two losses would have all but doomed their chances for a late run to the postseason.

The Caps let everyone know that they were not ready to call it quits.

Oates and crew came out swinging and Troy Brouwer scored 3:06 into the game. Turns out, that would be all the Caps needed on the night.

They would tally another three for good measure and Holtby would chip in with a shutout. It was mission accomplished in game one as the Caps coasted to a 4-0 win.

Game two on Friday saw the Jets start more aggressively, but the Caps still were able to exert themselves early on. Brooks Laich got his first of the season at 12:10 into the first and Brouwer added a second four minutes later. The Caps never looked back going on to win 6-1.

Just a short week ago it was thought the Caps should be sellers at the approaching trade deadline. Now, they sit only five points behind Winnipeg for the top of the division and three points behind Carolina for the eighth and final playoff spot.

Selling at the deadline suddenly seems a bit premature.

The Caps were never going to have a fire sale anyway. The Caps just do not have enough assets they would be willing to part with. There is speculation surrounding Mike Ribeiro who is on the last year of his contract. I also think they could look to move Michal Neuvirth who has seemingly fallen out of favor with Adam Oates. Other than that, there is very little to sell.

The schedule itself also makes selling before the deadline premature. Including tonight’s game against the Rangers, the Caps have five games before the deadline. Only one of those games is against a team currently in playoff position, Carolina, who are dealing with injuries and have lost five straight.

The schedule allows for the Caps to make a strong run leading up to the trade deadline.

Of course, the Caps are not likely to be buyers either.

The inconsistencies they have shown thus far do not justify selling assets and draft picks for what ultimately remains a long shot postseason run. Should the Caps fail to make the playoffs, they will likely have a high draft pick. It makes no sense then to give those up.

Since it does not make sense to buy or sell then, I expect a quiet deadline for the Caps. Any possible run they make will depend on the roster they currently have. It will start tonight against the Rangers.

Is John Wall worth a max deal?

With the successful return of John Wall, rumors have began swirling that the Wizards are preparing to offer their young point guard a max contract.

J. Michael of CSN reported that several persons with knowledge of the situation believe the Wizards are preparing to offer Wall a max deal. In many ways, Wall fits the mold of a max player.

As a point guard, Wall is the most important player on the floor. He is a former number one overall pick and is the best player on the team. He has clearly improved his jump shot and has become a more prolific scorer averaging 15.6 points per game.

 

More importantly he makes the entire team better when he is in the lineup. The shooting percentage of everyone on the floor shoots up when Wall is playing. The Wizards went 5-28 without him and are 19-15 since his return. That is a dramatic jump.

But does a .559 win percentage really justify a max contract?

 

Max contracts should go to elite talents only because you are handcuffing your ability to bring in other players to supplement your roster.

Wall may be a great player, but he is not an elite talent. Giving him more money further obstructs the team’s ability to surround him with better players.

The Wizards were historically bad without Wall in the lineup. Compare that to the Bulls who have been without their best player, Derrick Rose, for the entire season. The Bulls are 36-30, good for sixth in the east. They are a playoff team. This shows you just how bad Wall's supporting cast is. They certainly have some good players on the team, such as rookie Bradley Beal, but not enough to be great.

 

Perhaps the hardest thing for the Wizards and fans to accept is that Wall is not an elite talent. Elite of course  is a subjective term, but when I think elite, I think LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Dwyane Wade, Tim Duncan, Derrick Rose, etc. Wall is not among those players. True, he is only in his third year and a max contract would be an investment on what the Wizards believe he could be, but I do not see Wall developing into that level of player. Ask yourself this: who has the higher ceiling, Wall or Kyrie Irving?

 

I have no doubt Wall will continue to get better. He has shown he can do so in the course of this season with his improved jump shot, but his ceiling is much lower than Irving's. The NBA is the most star-driven sport in America. If Wall's ceiling is only so high, that makes the Wizards' ceiling that much lower. Can you really see Wall becoming on the elite players of the sport?

 

This is not to say the Wizards should not pursue re-signing him, he is a very good player. Paying him as if he is among the league's elite, however, will haunt the Wizards. I fear that the Wizards are setting themselves up to be a middle of the pack playoff team unable to challenge the sports' top teams and without the cap space to bring in the other pieces they need to be a true contender. Then the Wizards will have to blow the team up and start over.

 

The plan should be to build a contender, not overpay a single player and handcuff the team's future. Pretending you have a superstar will not make him one. Wall may be good, but he is not 'max' good.

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Redskins stay patient in free agency

Free agency opened Tuesday afternoon and so far, the Redskins have stayed relatively quiet choosing instead to focus on re-signing and re-structuring the contracts of players already on the roster rather than signing big name free agents with high price tags.

While the Redskins have largely been forced to stand pat due to the $18 million cap penalty imposed by the NFL, their patience may be the clearest sign yet that this organization has turned a corner.

The Redskins’ have thus far signed only two free agents: offensive tackles Tony Pashos and Jeremy Trueblood. They have also re-signed Logan Paulsen, Darrel Young, Rob Jackson, Kory Lichtensteiger, Nick Sundberg, Sav Rocca, and Kedric Golston. None of these are real earth-shattering moves, but they are very low-risk and, most importantly, fairly cheap.

The Redskins were forced to restructure several contracts in order to keep many of their key players and still get below the cap. They did not, however, follow the Vinny Cerrato model of restructuring. Previously, the team would push the total amount owed to a player back, meaning the player would still earn the full amount of their contracts but the bulk would be earned in the latter years. Essentially, it was the Redskins way of kicking the can down the road. Since the team could not afford said players, pushing the money back year after year only exacerbated the situation. The Redskins found themselves with a terrible team they could not afford to pay.

This year, the team had a very different philosophy. Instead of pushing the money back, they have instead convinced players to accept pay cuts.

As of now, Adam Carriker, Santana Moss, and Brandon Meriweather have all agreed to restructure their contracts and take pay cuts. It is amazing what players are willing to do to play on a good team. This would have been a much tougher sell had the Redskins gone 6-10 last season.

The Redskins also had to make a very frank assessment of their roster to see who will be part of the team’s future and move on from players who will not. The team will not re-sign Brandon Banks or Jammal Brown whose contracts just expired. They also cut DeAngelo Hall whose contract was set to count $8 million against the cap.

While these moves all appear to be smart and necessary that is not to say the Redskins are not feeling the sting of their suddenly tight purse strings.

Team leader and Pro Bowler Lorenzo Alexander will not be returning next season. The Redskins were forced to low-ball their offer to him and he instead chose to sign in Arizona. The departure of Hall also leaves the team with a single starting cornerback on the roster, Josh Wilson, and no money to sign a replacement. The draft pool for defensive backs appears to be fairly deep, but as the team is equally as thin at safety and without a first round pick, you cannot reasonably believe the Redskins will be able to revamp the backfield through the draft alone.

With several holes left to fill and few draft picks, I believe the Redskins are not done with restructuring contracts. Trent Williams seems the most likely candidate as he has been with the team since 2010 and, according to Fox Sports, is the highest paid player on the team.

There is also the question of Fred Davis. As of today (Thursday), he remains unsigned. That is good for the Redskins because if he had been given a blockbuster deal, he would have taken it. Teams will be spooked by his drug suspension and injury concerns, but he will still seek a large deal and that could put him out of reach. Adam Schefter reported today that Davis was choosing between Washington and Cleveland. If the Redskins get into a bidding war with the Browns, they will lose. Even so, it might not be a bad thing at this point. A starting cornerback may be more important than another starting tight end.

Despite the turmoil and the lack of cap room this season, the Redskins seem to have handled the situation well (now that they have begun dealing with the penalty rather than threatening fruitless appeals). With several holes left to fill and with the draft coming up, the Redskins will still seek whatever cap room they can find to try and patch together their roster for next season.

While I understand and applaud most of the moves the team has made thus far, I do not have high hopes for the 2013 season. As the cap penalty and free agency began to play out, we really began to understand just how deep the penalty cut. The defense had some glaring holes last season and chances are it is probably going to look worse in 2013. I do not see how the secondary can be better with late-round draft picks and bargain-basement players. The return of Meriweather will help, but you cannot rely on him to remain healthy and you still need another starting safety and a cornerback.

The Redskins may again have to rely very heavily on their offense and, with Robert Griffin III still recovering, I am not sure how well the offense will be able to shoulder the load.

Don’t despair though fans, if you take a long-term perspective, things are looking up. The Redskins will have that $18 million back for 2014 and will be able to make a splash then. The core that Mike Shanahan has built through the draft will still be largely intact, there hopefully will be no doubts surrounding Griffin’s health headed into the season, and the Redskins will have approximately $18 million extra in cap space to work with.

I’m not declaring 2013 a throw-away season because it is not; they have potential to compete as they did last year. If you are talking championship though, the Redskins can stay the course and really be in good shape for 2014.

All it will take is a little patience.

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Time to shop Green

After prolonged time to heal this offseason thanks to the lockout, it was hoped that Mike Green would enter the season healthy.  So far this season, he has missed eight games.  When he initially injured his groin, he missed only three games before returning saying his groin was feeling 100%.

I guess that was wishful thinking.

Injuries are becoming a troubling issue for Green as they have cut his past two seasons short. Green played only 81 games combined in those seasons.

Predictably, his production has declined as well. Green was on pace in both the 2010-11 and 2011-12 seasons for his lowest point totals since 2006-07. Green’s scoring ability was a luxury the team enjoyed, but without it he’s a very average defenseman. He tallied a whopping 76 points in 2009-10, but he was the team’s worst player in the infamous first round defeat at the hands of Montreal.

What makes Green so valuable is his offensive abilities. It would be nice to have Green back in the lineup, but if he is not producing, then he adds just another body to an already crowded blue line. As his production and health continually seem to decline, the Caps need to shop him in the offseason before another lackluster season takes away any trade value he may still have.

Obviously other teams will be aware of Green’s injury concerns, but they will be aware of his upside as well. At 27 years old, there will be numerous teams willing to roll the dice on Green, but the clock is ticking. The more Green struggles this season, the lower his trade value slips.

Still, it is hard to imagine there will be no interest for Green. He’s a great player when he’s healthy, but it just does not seem to be working out in DC anymore. Better to trade him now while he still has some value than hold on to him and risk watching his career disintegrate.

Redskins consider suing NFL

The Washington Post reported last weekend that the Washington Redskins were considering suing the NFL in an attempt to have their $18 million cap penalty overturned. As part of the lawsuit, they would file a motion to block the March 12 start of free agency.

The Redskins hinted that they were not done fighting the cap penalty, but this seems drastic. The cap penalty assessed to the team is a blatant act of collusion and completely unfair, but so far the courts have disagreed. I am not sure the legal arguments of the situation, but I don’t know how 30 organizations can have an “unwritten rule” regarding the types of contracts teams can offer players without it being labeled as collusion. Still, the Redskins have lost every legal challenge to the NFL’s ruling thus far.

It may be unfair, but the Redskins need to swallow their pride and accept it. Suing the NFL and disrupting free agency is just a bad idea.

The Redskins do not operate independent of the NFL and the other teams or in a vacuum. The team should want to have good relations with the league, the owners, the players, and their agents. Basically, if you make life tough for everyone else, they’ll make life tough for you.

Remember the late Al Davis? He wasn’t always considered a pariah. He sued the NFL in 1980 so he could move the Raiders to Los Angeles. The Redskins need to avoid having a similar type of relationship with the rest of the league, especially with the team facing numerous potential problems in the coming years.

The Redskins are under attack over their team name. Thus far, the NFL has not voiced a strong opinion either way, but that could easily change if the Redskins choose to go forward with this lawsuit. They may feel sudden pressure to rebrand themselves despite how committed to the name the organization currently is.  The condition of the field at FedEx is a disgrace; do not expect any help from the league in improving those conditions.

Mike Shanahan was able to orchestrate a trade last season with St. Louis in order to draft Robert Griffin III. The Cleveland Browns were reportedly willing to give up just as much, but the Rams instead choose to deal the pick to the Redskins. I do not see the Redskins being able to make these type of deals in the future if they choose to pursue their lawsuit.  Teams will be much less inclined to work out trades, agents will try to steer players away from DC, and whatever vain hope Daniel Snyder may have had about bringing the Super Bowl to FedEx would be completely extinguished.

Perhaps more troubling than the logistical nightmare of suing the NFL is the fact that the Redskins have not taken any measures thus far to free up cap space. They remain approximately $3 million over the salary cap with holes on the roster to fill and numerous free agents left to sign including Fred Davis. The Redskins need to prepare for the next season, but they’ve seemingly put everything on hold. The last thing the Redskins should want is for their pending free agents to hit the open market.  If the team does not make room for the players they need to sign, then they will simply sign somewhere else. The Redskins risk making things worse for themselves if they are not prepared to absorb the cap penalty.

The first reports of this lawsuit began surfacing about a week ago and since then nothing has happened. It could be that the Redskins are hoping the threat of a lawsuit will be enough to force some kind of settlement from the league and they do not intend to actually go to court. If they do, they should first consider the long-term ramifications of such a move. Saving $18 million now could cost them a lot in the future.

Wizards Trade Carwford, Get Little in Return

In the days leading up to the trade deadline, it became clear that Jordan Crawford was not happy.

Crawford had fallen out of favor with head coach Randy Wittman and did not play in four straight games leading up to the deadline. On Tuesday he showed his displeasure on the bench, slouching and yawning throughout the game. After the final buzzer, he took off his jersey and threw it into the stands. Crawford clearly had to go.

And that was the problem.

It was obvious to everyone who saw video from Tuesday’s game that the situation between Crawford and the Wizards had reached the breaking point. He was useless to the team and had to be shipped.

Here’s a quick business tip: when negotiating a business deal, don’t appear desperate.

About an hour before Thursday’s trade deadline, the Wizards reached a deal with the Celtics to trade Jordan Crawford for Leandro Barbosa and Jason Collin. Both are on the final year of their contracts and Barbosa is out for the season with a torn ACL. Neither player will likely be with the Wizards next season.

For anyone wondering why general manager Ernie Grunfeld could not get anything better for Crawford, the team’s third leading scorer despite having his minutes slashed the last few weeks, you need look no further than last Tuesday as Crawford tossed his jersey. The bridge had been publicly burned for all of the NBA to see.

It is not hard to see why Crawford could fall out of favor with Wittman; he’s a complete egomaniac. He would be a great scorer coming off the bench, but he has the ego of a superstar. Still, the Wizards should have been able to get something for him. The situation was completely mishandled by both Wittman and Grunfeld.

By not playing Crawford at all for four straight games, the Wizards publicly distanced themselves from him. Now, he has no chance to showcase what he can do to potential trade suitors and they are telling the league that they are desperate to sell. As a result, his trade value plummeted.

Grunfeld needed to begin exploring trade possibilities as soon as he became aware of the growing rift between Crawford and Wittman. That’s not to say he wasn’t, I don’t know exactly when he began inquiring. What I do know is that the trade market must have been pretty low for the Wizards to walk away only with Barbosa and Collins. If that was all that was available, the team would have been better off holding onto Crawford and trying to trade him again in the summer.

That’s why they should not have publicly benched him.

Grunfeld had to trade Crawford because the team had publicly declared that his time in DC was over. Clearly, there was a disconnect between Wittman and Grunfeld. Wittman hurt Crawford’s trade stock and forced the team’s hand by benching him and Grunfeld did not step in earlier to find an equitable deal. Had they both been on the same page, Crawford would have been playing and Wittman would have been aware of whether Grunfeld would be able to trade him now or over the summer. Instead, it appeared as if neither of them knew what the other was doing.

Are the Wizards worse off today than they were with Crawford? No, but they aren’t any better either. They shipped off a distraction for two players who will make no significant impact and who will both be gone after the season. The Wizards missed an opportunity to gain some sort of asset because of another mishandled situation. While the team on the court continues to get better, the Wizards’ showed yet again that their biggest weakness remains their front office.

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