Cards stacked against teams like Wizards in NBA

When the Wizards were selected third in the NBA Draft Lottery, excitement grew at the prospect of adding another key piece to the team. After the team’s dramatic turnaround with the return of John Wall from injury last season, the Wizards already look poised to challenge for a playoff spot. Adding the number three overall pick will be a major asset to this team.

But will it be enough in today’s NBA?

Miami’s second straight NBA championship underscores the uphill battle the Wizards face. Even the most casual of basketball fans know the story of ‘The Big 3’ coming together in Miami. Since that time, the Heat have gone to the finals three straight years and have won it the last two. Now, Dwight Howard and Chris Paul are reportedly talking about playing together next season.

Do you think the Wizards are on their list of teams they would play for?

In this era of the NBA, free agency is being driven by superstars planning coming together and picking where they want to go. The problem is, none of those superstars are picking places like Toronto, Milwaukee, Washington, etc.

Sure, there are smaller market teams that have found some success, such as Oklahoma City, but they hit the draft jackpot with Kevin Durant. Not every team can rely on finding a Lebron or a Durant in the draft.

There are only two formulas for success in the NBA. Either a team drafts a superstar who can recruit others or traditional basketball powers (Celtics, Lakers) or popular cities attract superstars in free agency. The last team to win the championship that did not fit this mold was the 2004 Detroit Pistons.

What really makes this unfair is that for those teams without a superstar, making the playoffs can actually hurt your chances of eventually building a championship team.

Making the playoffs in the NBA is different than in the other sports where every year each team has a chance to win regardless of the seeding. In the history of the NBA, the lowest ever seed to win the championship was the 6^th seeded Houston Rockets in 1995. Upsets are always possible from series to series, but for the most part only a handful of teams have a real shot at winning the championship.

Milwaukee made the playoffs this year, but they had no shot of winning and were swept in the first round by Miami. How are they supposed to get better? Do you think they can get Chris Paul? Of course not. The Bucks, however, will not get a lottery pick because they made the playoffs. Unless they find a real steal in the draft, the Bucks will not be able to lure superstar players to Milwaukee in free agency.

What about Memphis or Indiana who made it to the conference finals? Don’t  these smaller market teams prove every team has a chance? Not really. Both these teams will be competing with the Lakers, Heat, Spurs, and Celtics for the same free agents. I seriously doubt we will see Howard in Memphis or Paul in Indiana any time soon.

Getting back to the Wizards, they have the chance to add another weapon, but with the relative weakness of the draft, they are unlikely to add a Durant-level star. Barring another injury-plagued season, the Wizards will likely make the playoffs in 2014.

It will be exciting to see playoff basketball in DC again, but Otto Porter Jr. or Anthony Bennett or whomever they take in the draft will not make them a championship team. The only real way to continue building is through free agency.

Are John Wall and Bradley Beal enough of a draw to bring in big time free agents? Probably not.

As unbelievable and unfair as it may be, the Wizards are rapidly approaching the ceiling of the Wall era. In five years, Wall will be 28 and at best the Wizards will be a middle of the pack playoff team, capable of playing their way to the conference championship, but no further. Then, the team will have to start over.

Unless they can find that big time star in the draft, the cards will always be stacked against teams like the Wizards. That is, until the NBA institutes a hard salary cap.

For the latest sports news, check out CSNWashington.com or follow me on Twitter @TheDC_Sportsguy

Wizards Enter All-Star Break Wondering What If

Despite a disastrous start to the season, the Wizards enter the All-Star break feeling more confident after the return of John Wall. The Wizards have gone 10-8 with Wall and suddenly look like a competitive team.

 

It is easy to blame the Wizards resurgence on Wall’s return alone, but coach Randy Wittman did an incredible job laying the foundation for success. Defense has been a point of emphasis for Wittman and the stats reflect that. The Wizards currently rank sixth in the league in points allowed and ninth in rebounds per game. Defense kept the Wizards competitive in multiple games in which they were completely outclassed and outplayed. Upon Wall’s return, the resurgence brought upon the team’s current success. Even with Wall, the team still is not a great offensive team. They continue winning, however, because of the team’s commitment to defense.

 

Still, it is undeniable that Wall is the leader of the team and it makes one wonder what could have been had Wall been healthy this season. The Wizards’winning percentage since his return is .555, which would currently put them at seventh in the East just above Boston. The Wizards are currently playing at a playoff caliber pace.

 

Before the season began, the Wizards’ organization declared that this was a playoff team. Their current success does somewhat justify GM Ernie Grunfeld’s plan for this season so long as he does not ignore the lessons learned by their disastrous start.

 

The Wizards were not just bad, they were historically bad. The loss of Wall does not justify a 5-28 start. Wall’s absence revealed how weak his supporting cast really is. Nene’s health is a constant concern, Trevor Ariza is only effective when he is coming off the bench, and the Wizards have little depth at point guard.

 

Compare them to Chicago who has been without star Derrick Rose for the entire season. The Bulls are currently fifth in the east, the Wizards are 13^th. The Bulls have two players in the all-star game (Luol Deng and Joakim Noah), the Wizards have one player in the rising stars challenge (Bradley Beal). The Bulls have a strong supporting cast surrounding their undisputed leader; they are a playoff team even without him. The Wizards have a rag-tag team of bad contracts and draft picks that compiled the worst record in the league without Wall.

 

The pieces are in place for the Wizards to perhaps compete for a playoff spot, but there’s not enough there to be real competitors, even when Wall and Beal reach their full potential. There is still a long way to go for Grunfeld to bring a competitor to DC. If the Wizards can stay healthy next season, however, they can make the playoffs and that is definitely a step in the right direction.

No Love for Beal

Here is a link to my latest blog for CSN Washington

http://www.csnwashington.com/basketball-washington-wizards/talk/no-love-beal

For the latest DC sports news, follow me on Twitter @TheDC_Sportsguy