Wizards need to get healthy in the offseason

The Wizards closed the 2012-13 season Wednesday night with a 95-92 loss in Chicago. The team finished 29-53 on the year, good for 12thin the East and will miss the playoffs yet again.

Yet, despite their record, the Wizards appeared to have improved tremendously this season.

When this team was healthy, they were one of the most competitive in the league. They beat some of the best clubss including Memphis, Indiana, and Denver in Denver. The roster appeared to be as good as advertised prior to the season when the team felt they could compete for the playoffs.

Early season injuries, however, derailed any postseason hopes the Wizards may have had.

Health was by far the team’s biggest problem. John Wall was sidelined for the first two months of the season with a stress fracture in his knee and Bradley Beal missed the last month with a similar stress injury. Nene has battled a variety of injuries all year, severely limiting his time and effectiveness on the court.

The number of injuries this team dealt with over the season makes it hard to accurately grade the Wizards’ season. They have missed the playoffs yet again, but for the second half of the season they were a competitive team.

Not knowing how to grade them makes it hard to improve upon it and I believe next year’s starting five will look very similar to this season’s.

Of the Wizards’ five starters, only Martell Webster is not currently under contract and the other four are unlikely to lose their spots. How the Wizards may look to improve their roster will depend greatly on where they end up in the draft and who is still available when it is their turn.

With all the talk surrounding Wall, I expect the Wizards to extend him to a max contract or something close to it. With Trevor Ariza, Emeka Okafor, and Nene all earning ridiculous salaries, the Wizards will most likely not making any big moves in free agency. If the team wants to improve, it will be through the draft.

Last year, perimeter shooting was the obvious need. This year, there are many spots the Wizards need to improve upon, but no single glaring weakness.

In terms of the backcourt, Wall and Beal are obviously the anchors, but the Wizards still need to improve their shooting and depth. Small forward is probably the most obvious need. Webster is unsigned and Ariza is a much more effective sixth man than starter. If the Wizards drop too far in the draft, however, it is likely that players like Shabazz Muhammad and Otto Porter Jr. will be gone. Webster may not be the long-term solution at starter, but Webster and Ariza are a good enough tandem to throw out for one more season.

The Wizards could also look at big men. Nene’s health is a question mark. He always plays injured and the team suffers when he is out of the lineup. Okafor is on the last year of his contract. The Wizards could look for developmental types at power forward or center. Both Nene and Okafor are paid too much to sit on the bench, but the Wizards will need to replace both in the near future.

Like this season, much of next season’s success will depend on the health and durability of the team. If Wall, Beal, and Nene are all healthy, the Wizards are at worst a .500 team. With a strong draft and offseason, the Wizards could be a playoff team next year and could further improve for 2014-15 when they emerge from under the shadow of Okafor and Ariza’s deals.

Progress may be slow, but the Wizards do appear to finally be on the right track.

Wizards Enter All-Star Break Wondering What If

Despite a disastrous start to the season, the Wizards enter the All-Star break feeling more confident after the return of John Wall. The Wizards have gone 10-8 with Wall and suddenly look like a competitive team.

 

It is easy to blame the Wizards resurgence on Wall’s return alone, but coach Randy Wittman did an incredible job laying the foundation for success. Defense has been a point of emphasis for Wittman and the stats reflect that. The Wizards currently rank sixth in the league in points allowed and ninth in rebounds per game. Defense kept the Wizards competitive in multiple games in which they were completely outclassed and outplayed. Upon Wall’s return, the resurgence brought upon the team’s current success. Even with Wall, the team still is not a great offensive team. They continue winning, however, because of the team’s commitment to defense.

 

Still, it is undeniable that Wall is the leader of the team and it makes one wonder what could have been had Wall been healthy this season. The Wizards’winning percentage since his return is .555, which would currently put them at seventh in the East just above Boston. The Wizards are currently playing at a playoff caliber pace.

 

Before the season began, the Wizards’ organization declared that this was a playoff team. Their current success does somewhat justify GM Ernie Grunfeld’s plan for this season so long as he does not ignore the lessons learned by their disastrous start.

 

The Wizards were not just bad, they were historically bad. The loss of Wall does not justify a 5-28 start. Wall’s absence revealed how weak his supporting cast really is. Nene’s health is a constant concern, Trevor Ariza is only effective when he is coming off the bench, and the Wizards have little depth at point guard.

 

Compare them to Chicago who has been without star Derrick Rose for the entire season. The Bulls are currently fifth in the east, the Wizards are 13^th. The Bulls have two players in the all-star game (Luol Deng and Joakim Noah), the Wizards have one player in the rising stars challenge (Bradley Beal). The Bulls have a strong supporting cast surrounding their undisputed leader; they are a playoff team even without him. The Wizards have a rag-tag team of bad contracts and draft picks that compiled the worst record in the league without Wall.

 

The pieces are in place for the Wizards to perhaps compete for a playoff spot, but there’s not enough there to be real competitors, even when Wall and Beal reach their full potential. There is still a long way to go for Grunfeld to bring a competitor to DC. If the Wizards can stay healthy next season, however, they can make the playoffs and that is definitely a step in the right direction.

Wizards' problems go beyond their injured stars

All you could do was laugh.

Down by one to Atlanta, Martell Webster hit a layup as the buzzer sounded. The shot initially counted and the Wizards looked as if they had finally gotten their first win.  The referees conferred, reviewed the video, and declared the shot was late. The Wizards fell to a franchise-worst 0-10.

All the high hopes and expectations have been derailed in a single month. The Wizards spent much of the offseason declaring they were no longer a lottery team, that they could compete for a playoff spot. It certainly does not look like that’s going to happen.

The biggest issue the Wizards have faced is health. Both John Wall and Nene, the team’s two most important players, were injured to start the season. It is no secret that the Wizards had hoped to build a team around Wall. When they were suddenly left with nothing more than a supporting cast, struggles were sure to follow.

To start the season 0-10, however, is not just bad, but historically bad. Only 13 teams in NBA history have started 0-10.  Don’t worry though, the Wizards have only lost by an average of 7 points, the best of those 13.  Congratulations, you are the best, worst team of all time.

As bad as things are, however, it is tough to put the blame on anyone on the court or on head coach Randy Wittman.  The players do look like they are legitimately trying out there.  Wittman is doing absolutely everything he can think of to right the ship.  While his news conferences and roster moves sometimes appear utterly desperate, it is hard to blame him for trying to get creative with a bad roster.

Do you think the Clippers would struggle without Blake Griffin and Chris Paul?  How about the Heat if they played without Lebron James and Dwayne Wade?  Of course no amount of injuries can justify perpetually losing in the NBA, but in my mind it does shift the blame from Wittman and the team to the front office.

The real mistake the Wizards made was building a team around a center whose health was a legitimate concern and a still unproven star point guard.  Nene has played ten seasons in the NBA and injuries have shortened his season to less than 70 games in five of those seasons.  He played a total of 39 games last year.

John Wall has not played more than 70 games in either season of his still short NBA career.  The concern with Wall, however, is not injury, but whether or not he will become the superstar talent the Wizards hoped he would be when they drafted him number one overall pick in the draft.

Wall is a very good point guard and his future looks bright, but he is not the cornerstone talent that franchises can build around.  The Wizards need to change their approach from bringing in supporting talent to bringing in star talent.  Granted that is easier said than done in today’s NBA where stars tend to follow stars, but let’s get realistic here.  Wall is not an elite talent capable of taking the Wizards to the next level by himself.

Nene was a good, albeit fragile, addition.  His presence addressed a real need for defense and leadership, but his health makes him difficult to rely on.  Bringing in Trevor Ariza and Emeka Okafor is not the answer and not just because of their early season struggles.  Both players are nice additions, but there was a reason they were traded.  New Orleans needed to get out from under their bad contracts.  “Bad contracts” are only bad when players are getting paid a lot more than they are worth.  Kobe Bryant makes a lot of money too, but the Lakers aren’t trying to trade him.

The Wizards would be a lot better with a healthy Wall and Nene in their lineup, but that does not justify an 0-10 start.  What this has shown is just how bad the “supporting cast” really is.  When Cleveland lost Lebron to the infamous “decision”, they did not start 0-10 the following season.  It is time to get back to the drawing board for Ernie Grunfeld and the Wizards.

Much Improved Wizards Team Hopes to Take Next Step

The Wizards sent a message at the end of last season; they were ready to turn the page on this embarrassing chapter in their history.  They were tired of the losing and of the embarrassing headlines off the court.

Head coach Flip Saunders was fired midway through the season, resident knuckleheads JaVale McGee and Nick Young were traded away for Nene and Brian Cook, and Andray Blatche was sent packing.  The moves had immediate results as the Wizards finished the 2011-2012 winning six straight and eight of their last ten.

The question, of course, is whether that success will continue this season.  The Wizards continued to improve in the offseason by trading the oft-injured and very expensive Rashard Lewis for Emeka Okafor and Trevor Ariza.  They also drafted the talented perimeter shooter Bradley Beal.

Looking at this new roster, there’s no doubt that it is a much improved squad.  McGee and Young were both talented, but the lack of leadership or discipline on this young team made DC a bad fit for them.  Nene gave this team instant leadership and, paired with Okafor, the Wizards suddenly look very strong in the paint.

Offensively, however, this team may struggle.  Beal looks to be a year away from being a top threat.  While he looked great in the Summer League, he has struggled in the preseason including a zero point performance in the finale against San Antonio.

Ariza, playing on his third team in four years, has also struggled in the preseason.  He is playing for his third team in four seasons, so perhaps some growing pains are to be expected, but the Wizards were expecting him to start and be a top offensive threat for them.  The fact that he is still struggling to produce is troubling.

The biggest problem facing the team right now is injuries.  John Wall needed to continue to prove himself to be a star this season, but he will sit the first month with a stress injury to his left knee.  Nene continues to struggle with plantar fasciitis in his left foot making his return to the team uncertain.  Kevin Seraphin, Chris Singleton, Trevor Booker, and Okafor have all missed games in the preseason because of an illness or injury.  It doesn’t matter what kind of roster the Wizards have assembled, if they can’t stay healthy they will struggle to find any success.

Still, it’s hard to argue against he moves the Wizards have made and the roster is undeniably more formidable now than it has been in several years.  Defense will be the key as this team continues to find its offensive identity.  Perimeter shooting will still be an issue, but there’s plenty to like about where this team is going.  If they can get healthy, they could potentially compete for one of the last playoff spots.  That might not sound like a glamorous outlook, but after four straight lottery years an eighth place finish sounds pretty good to me and probably sounds good to the Wizards as well.

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