Thursday, April 18, 2013

Wizards need to get healthy in the offseason

The Wizards closed the 2012-13 season Wednesday night with a 95-92 loss in Chicago. The team finished 29-53 on the year, good for 12thin the East and will miss the playoffs yet again.

Yet, despite their record, the Wizards appeared to have improved tremendously this season.

When this team was healthy, they were one of the most competitive in the league. They beat some of the best clubss including Memphis, Indiana, and Denver in Denver. The roster appeared to be as good as advertised prior to the season when the team felt they could compete for the playoffs.

Early season injuries, however, derailed any postseason hopes the Wizards may have had.

Health was by far the team’s biggest problem. John Wall was sidelined for the first two months of the season with a stress fracture in his knee and Bradley Beal missed the last month with a similar stress injury. Nene has battled a variety of injuries all year, severely limiting his time and effectiveness on the court.

The number of injuries this team dealt with over the season makes it hard to accurately grade the Wizards’ season. They have missed the playoffs yet again, but for the second half of the season they were a competitive team.

Not knowing how to grade them makes it hard to improve upon it and I believe next year’s starting five will look very similar to this season’s.

Of the Wizards’ five starters, only Martell Webster is not currently under contract and the other four are unlikely to lose their spots. How the Wizards may look to improve their roster will depend greatly on where they end up in the draft and who is still available when it is their turn.

With all the talk surrounding Wall, I expect the Wizards to extend him to a max contract or something close to it. With Trevor Ariza, Emeka Okafor, and Nene all earning ridiculous salaries, the Wizards will most likely not making any big moves in free agency. If the team wants to improve, it will be through the draft.

Last year, perimeter shooting was the obvious need. This year, there are many spots the Wizards need to improve upon, but no single glaring weakness.

In terms of the backcourt, Wall and Beal are obviously the anchors, but the Wizards still need to improve their shooting and depth. Small forward is probably the most obvious need. Webster is unsigned and Ariza is a much more effective sixth man than starter. If the Wizards drop too far in the draft, however, it is likely that players like Shabazz Muhammad and Otto Porter Jr. will be gone. Webster may not be the long-term solution at starter, but Webster and Ariza are a good enough tandem to throw out for one more season.

The Wizards could also look at big men. Nene’s health is a question mark. He always plays injured and the team suffers when he is out of the lineup. Okafor is on the last year of his contract. The Wizards could look for developmental types at power forward or center. Both Nene and Okafor are paid too much to sit on the bench, but the Wizards will need to replace both in the near future.

Like this season, much of next season’s success will depend on the health and durability of the team. If Wall, Beal, and Nene are all healthy, the Wizards are at worst a .500 team. With a strong draft and offseason, the Wizards could be a playoff team next year and could further improve for 2014-15 when they emerge from under the shadow of Okafor and Ariza’s deals.

Progress may be slow, but the Wizards do appear to finally be on the right track.

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