ACC’s Football Future in Jeopardy?

For the past few years, the college football landscape has changed dramatically as schools continually realign in an attempt to secure their program’s future.  Schools abandoned their traditional conferences and heralded rivalries with a look to the future.  Now we are left with the daunting task of sorting through all the changes and what they will ultimately mean.  Amid the chaos, the ACC seemed to be in a good position.  Syracuse and Pittsburgh decided to leave the Big East for the ACC, then the league stood pat, seemingly above the chaos, satisfied by their 14 members.  The recent agreement between the SEC and the Big 12 to match their champions in an annual bowl, however, is a clear sign that the ACC’s future as a major football conference remains very much in doubt.

In the BCS era, six conferences were given automatic bids into the BCS games.  The conference champions of the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, Pac 10, and SEC were all guaranteed to receive a bid to one of the five BCS bowls.  Now that college football appears to finally be headed towards a playoff system, it is unclear what the BCS bowl games will mean.  By agreeing to a bowl matchup with one another similar to the relationship we currently see between the Big 10 and Pac 10 regarding the Rose Bowl, the SEC and Big 12 have cemented a relationship between two of the major conferences in the nation.  The implication is that the top four conferences have distinguished themselves and turned their backs on the weaker ACC and Big East.

Conference realignment and the end of the BCS system is a turning point for the ACC.  The league has long been criticized as weak with a 2-13 record in BCS bowl games.  The new playoff system is expected to be a four team format and in the past 5 years only one ACC team would have qualified, Virginia Tech in 2007.  The ACC must get better if it is to compete nationally or its best teams could leave.

Just last week, there were rumors floating that perhaps Florida State was seeking to leave for the Big 12.  While Florida State shot down those rumors, it did show the precarious position in which the ACC now finds itself.  With little prestige to speak of, should one of the ACC powers decide to leave it could start a mass exodus.  Should Florida State leave, Miami, Virginia Tech, and Clemson could all seek to leave as well or other conferences could attempt to lure them away.  The ACC cannot afford to lose its few prominent teams or it may be forced to seek out other unlikely teams like the Big East did in their talks with TCU, Boise State, and Houston.

Should the ACC respond to these other matchups with a Big East Bowl matchup?  That would not really help anything.  In fact, it would probably cement the perception that both conferences are second-tier.  One other possibility for the ACC is that they could attempt to woo Notre Dame.  Notre Dame of course is one of the most storied programs in the nation.  They have for years scorned all attempts to bring them into a conference, but previously there was no need for them to join a conference with their special relationship with the BCS.  That status, however, is now in jeopardy.  Should the playoff format require each of the top four teams to be conference champions as some have suggested, where would that leave Notre Dame?  If they must seek a conference, the ACC would be a distinct possibility.  The Notre Dame program is extremely profitable and the school is reluctant to share that money among conference members.  The ACC does not have a revenue sharing agreement which would allow Notre Dame to keep its money even with its conference affiliation.

For those of you dreaming of a rekindling of the “Catholics and Convicts” rivalry between Notre Dame and Miami, don’t reserve your tickets just yet.  This is a long-shot.  Even if Notre Dame is not the Notre Dame of old, a playoff format without some sort of special provision for them is almost inconceivable.  They will not join a conference unless they absolutely have to and it is unlikely that they ever will.

For now, the ACC is best served to remain where they stand and see what happens with the new playoff system.  To try and build around a playoff system that has not even been finalized yet is putting the cart before the horse.  Syracuse and Pittsburgh have yet to make their ACC debut, both may thrive in the new conference.  The new agreement between the Big 12 and SEC is not necessarily cause for panic, it only confirms what we already knew.  Right now, the ACC is second tier.  With two new teams and a new playoff system, the ACC may find a new identity and finally establish itself as a major conference.  If not, they may have to seek other teams to bridge the gap.