Caps' Offseason Questions

Another season down and the Caps are again left to wonder what they need to do to build a championship-caliber team. It has become an unfortunate offseason tradition in DC and despite transitioning to a playoff-friendly style of play, the Caps still could not reach the conference finals. Now the building process begins yet again.

The biggest offseason question is of course the coach. Dale Hunter took over the team in November after Bruce Boudreau was fired and, after some regular season struggles, brought the team together for an improbable series win over Boston and a near win over New York. For years the Caps have underachieved in the playoffs, but this year many thought they began to play a style of hockey that lends itself to postseason play. Most experts felt the Caps had no chance against the defending champions, but seven games later the Caps were mobbing Joel Ward as he celebrated a series-clinching overtime goal. Hunter, however, decided not to return as coach electing instead to return to London, Ontario to look over his farm and minor league hockey team. Just when it appeared the Caps had a coaching foundation in place to lead them forward, the carpet was been pulled from under their feet yet again.

General Manager George McPhee has remarked that he is in no rush to select a new coach and that the search could take the majority of the offseason. While I applaud his diligence, I would argue there needs to be more of a sense of urgency. Obviously McPhee should not rush into such an important decision, but how can he build a roster around a coach he does not have? If the Caps want to go to a more defensive style that seems to work in the playoffs, they will need a coach who can do that. I am always wary of building a team without a coach. McPhee’s vision may not be the same as the new coach’s. What’s more, the Caps are also not the only team with a coaching vacancy. Reports are coming in today saying that Bob Hartley, the coach that led Colorado to the Stanley Cup in 2000, will be interviewed by Montreal and Calgary. I’m not saying the Caps should be pursuing Hartley, I’m merely pointing out that good candidates will be taken by other GMs who are not as patient as McPhee.

On the Caps’ roster there are six unrestricted free agents and four restricted free agents. The unrestricted free agents are Keith Aucoin, Jeff Halpern, Mike Knuble, Alexander Semin, Tomas Vokoun, and Dennis Wideman. The restricted free agents are Jay Beagle, John Carlson, Mike Green, and Mathieu Perreault. Perhaps the easiest decision to make will be regarding Vokoun. Sidelined for much of the last quarter of the season, Vokoun watched as Michal Neuvirth and rookie Braden Holtby shouldered the load. After another injury to Neuvirth, Holtby was given an opportunity in the playoffs and he made the most of it, proving he is ready to play full time at the NHL level. With both Neuvirth and Holtby under contract for next season for less than $2 million combined, there’s no need to bring back Vokoun.

It also appears to be the end of Semin’s tenure in DC. Semin’s agent was quoted as saying that his client was not pleased at his role with the team and would look to play elsewhere next season. While Semin tried to back off from his agent’s comments and leave the door open for a return to DC, it’s hard to see either side coming to terms. Semin continues to disappear in the playoffs, showing up only to commit stupid penalties while squandering the talent we all know he possesses. Any questions people have regarding his skill were all answered with his 2 goal performance in the World Championship finals. Perhaps a change of scenery would be best for him to realize his potential in the NHL, if of course, he is not already planning on returning to Russia and playing in the KHL. The problem for the Caps is that there is not a lot of talent out there to replace him with. Most experts have labeled this year’s free agency market as rather weak so it will be hard to find someone with Semin’s skill, but I am not expecting him to Rock the Red next season.

Probably the most intriguing offseason question is the Dennis Wideman/Mike Green debate. Wideman had an all-star season, while Green was limited to less than 50 games in both of the past two seasons. Yet, I expect Wideman will leave and Green will resign. Essentially, the Caps cannot afford to let them go, but they may not be able to afford both. Although both have expressed interest in returning to DC, both will command large contracts. Green is a restricted free agent and the Caps could potentially trade his contract rights or receive draft compensation should he choose to sign elsewhere, whereas Wideman is free to sign wherever he pleases. There is certainly an argument to be made in favor of the all-star, unrestricted veteran over the injury prone, restricted agent, but you cannot discount how different the Caps are when Green is playing up to his potential. Green is a few years younger than Wideman, costs about the same, and the team clearly responds to him. While neither played particularly well in the playoffs, Wideman looked slow and even lost at times. I think McPhee trusts a healthy Green over a healthy Wideman and I expect a very short term (1-2 years) deal for Green.

As for the rest, Beagle and Carlson are slam-dunks. Beagle impressed all year, proving himself to be a competent third line player capable of shutting down top forward lines while still providing offensive pressure. Carlson struggled for much of the regular season, but played incredibly well in the playoffs next to partner Karl Alzner. I do not expect Carlson will be going anywhere.

Aucoin saw significant playing time, but he will likely remain primarily an AHL player. He can be resigned for very little. Knuble will likely not be back. He will turn 40 over the offseason and his last contract of $2 million is far too much for another season. Knuble became a healthy scratch midway through the regular season before cementing himself again into the lineup during the playoffs, but if he is brought back it will be on a one year contract for much less money and for less playing time. It is likely he can find something better elsewhere with leadership and experience always being a valued commodity. Halpern underperformed offensively even by pessimistic standards, but he was brought in to win faceoffs and serve as a penalty killer which he did well. Still, Halpern became a regular scratch in the playoffs, so after making it clear he intends to play next season, it is unlikely he would want to return. While Perreault also became a healthy scratch in the playoffs, I expect he will be back as well. He is inconsistent offensively, but he is a restricted free agent with a qualifying offer set at one-year, $577,500. With such a small contract, it would be worth bringing him back to see if he can develop into a more potent offensive player.

Should Semin and Wideman both leave, the Caps will have some major holes to fill. They will need someone to replace the offensive threat Semin posed to opponents and will of course also need to look into finally bringing in a real second-line center, something this team has lacked for several years. While Dmitry Orlov will continue to develop as a defenseman, the Caps will also likely seek another top four defenseman to replace Wideman and provide an option if Roman Hamrlik continues to struggle. The question, as stated above, is whether there will be players available in a weak free agent market to fix these holes. Having two first round draft picks will help, but as both are middle picks, it is likely the Caps will not find someone who can contribute right away. The Caps may be forced to become a more defensive team simply by not being able to replace the offensive weapons they will lose in the offseason.

ACC’s Football Future in Jeopardy?

For the past few years, the college football landscape has changed dramatically as schools continually realign in an attempt to secure their program’s future.  Schools abandoned their traditional conferences and heralded rivalries with a look to the future.  Now we are left with the daunting task of sorting through all the changes and what they will ultimately mean.  Amid the chaos, the ACC seemed to be in a good position.  Syracuse and Pittsburgh decided to leave the Big East for the ACC, then the league stood pat, seemingly above the chaos, satisfied by their 14 members.  The recent agreement between the SEC and the Big 12 to match their champions in an annual bowl, however, is a clear sign that the ACC’s future as a major football conference remains very much in doubt.

In the BCS era, six conferences were given automatic bids into the BCS games.  The conference champions of the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, Pac 10, and SEC were all guaranteed to receive a bid to one of the five BCS bowls.  Now that college football appears to finally be headed towards a playoff system, it is unclear what the BCS bowl games will mean.  By agreeing to a bowl matchup with one another similar to the relationship we currently see between the Big 10 and Pac 10 regarding the Rose Bowl, the SEC and Big 12 have cemented a relationship between two of the major conferences in the nation.  The implication is that the top four conferences have distinguished themselves and turned their backs on the weaker ACC and Big East.

Conference realignment and the end of the BCS system is a turning point for the ACC.  The league has long been criticized as weak with a 2-13 record in BCS bowl games.  The new playoff system is expected to be a four team format and in the past 5 years only one ACC team would have qualified, Virginia Tech in 2007.  The ACC must get better if it is to compete nationally or its best teams could leave.

Just last week, there were rumors floating that perhaps Florida State was seeking to leave for the Big 12.  While Florida State shot down those rumors, it did show the precarious position in which the ACC now finds itself.  With little prestige to speak of, should one of the ACC powers decide to leave it could start a mass exodus.  Should Florida State leave, Miami, Virginia Tech, and Clemson could all seek to leave as well or other conferences could attempt to lure them away.  The ACC cannot afford to lose its few prominent teams or it may be forced to seek out other unlikely teams like the Big East did in their talks with TCU, Boise State, and Houston.

Should the ACC respond to these other matchups with a Big East Bowl matchup?  That would not really help anything.  In fact, it would probably cement the perception that both conferences are second-tier.  One other possibility for the ACC is that they could attempt to woo Notre Dame.  Notre Dame of course is one of the most storied programs in the nation.  They have for years scorned all attempts to bring them into a conference, but previously there was no need for them to join a conference with their special relationship with the BCS.  That status, however, is now in jeopardy.  Should the playoff format require each of the top four teams to be conference champions as some have suggested, where would that leave Notre Dame?  If they must seek a conference, the ACC would be a distinct possibility.  The Notre Dame program is extremely profitable and the school is reluctant to share that money among conference members.  The ACC does not have a revenue sharing agreement which would allow Notre Dame to keep its money even with its conference affiliation.

For those of you dreaming of a rekindling of the “Catholics and Convicts” rivalry between Notre Dame and Miami, don’t reserve your tickets just yet.  This is a long-shot.  Even if Notre Dame is not the Notre Dame of old, a playoff format without some sort of special provision for them is almost inconceivable.  They will not join a conference unless they absolutely have to and it is unlikely that they ever will.

For now, the ACC is best served to remain where they stand and see what happens with the new playoff system.  To try and build around a playoff system that has not even been finalized yet is putting the cart before the horse.  Syracuse and Pittsburgh have yet to make their ACC debut, both may thrive in the new conference.  The new agreement between the Big 12 and SEC is not necessarily cause for panic, it only confirms what we already knew.  Right now, the ACC is second tier.  With two new teams and a new playoff system, the ACC may find a new identity and finally establish itself as a major conference.  If not, they may have to seek other teams to bridge the gap.

Caps Fall to Rangers in Seven, Lose Coach, But Learn Something Along the Way

On Saturday the clock ticked away the last few seconds on another season for the Capitals. The team watched as the New York Rangers celebrated their hard-fought game seven win in front of their home crowd. The feeling among the Caps was one of extreme disappointment after coming just one goal short of perhaps reaching the conference finals, a decidedly different feeling that many expected heading into the postseason. There were times over the season where it looked as if the team may not even reach the playoffs. The Capitals were widely proclaimed as the most disappointing team of the year and with a looming series against the defending champions, most people were looking towards next season to figure out how to right the ship. Fourteen games later, there is a very different feeling in the nation’s capital.

There is no clear formula for success in any sport, but each coach brings with him a theory of how best to achieve postseason success. For head coach Dale Hunter, that theory is a commitment to defense and matching up lines. Over the course of the season, the Caps made a difficult transition from the run and gun offensive style of Bruce Boudreau to this new way of playing and it took the full season for the team to buy in. Many experts saw the Caps limping into the postseason with a rookie goalie and a history of playoff disappointment against the defending champions and thought Boston would clean up. It was clear after the first two games in Boston that this was going to be a very different series. The Caps ended up winning what was the closest series in NHL history with a Joel Ward overtime goal. The Caps were rewarded with a series against the number one seeded Rangers and came up just short.

The unfortunate reality of this series is that perhaps the Caps let this one slip away. In game 3, the Caps fell 2-1 in triple overtime, the third longest game in franchise history. The Caps had a 2-1 lead in game 5 with less than a minute left when Ward took a double minor for high sticking. The Rangers scored on both power plays, once with 6 seconds left to tie it, and the other in overtime to take the win. Both games could easily have gone the other way and the Caps could be looking at a matchup with New Jersey.

So what does this mean for the season? How do you evaluate what happened and can you call it a success? This season stands as a testament to how different the regular season and playoffs are. In the end, the regular season really doesn’t matter so long as you make the playoffs. Look at who’s left, Los Angeles looks like the team to beat and they are the eighth seed from the west. The Caps had a disappointing regular season and a competitive, hopefully defining, postseason. In October, the Caps were considered one of the teams to beat. General Manager George McPhee had assembled what looked to be an intimidating lineup, but the team struggled and Boudreau was eventually fired. He was replaced by the stoic team legend with a hard-nosed reputation both as a player and coach. The team played .500 hockey and qualified for the playoffs with a win in the second to last game of the season. It was not exactly the response McPhee was hoping for when he brought Hunter in.

A different team showed up to play Boston. This team had bought into Hunter’s system. They blocked shots, played responsibly on both ends of the ice, and did not take foolish penalties. Everyone responded to the challenge of the defending champions. What had been the second best offense in the league scored only 15 goals in 7 games, 4 of which went into overtime. The same dedication came up just short against the Rangers, but it could have easily gone the Caps’ way.

The difference between Boudreau’s success and Hunter’s? This team faced two of the best teams in the league and almost came out on top. Under Boudreau the Caps consistently struggled against weaker teams. In 2009, the Caps were the second seed and New York took a three games to one lead on them. It took seven to beat a considerably weaker team. The Caps then fell apart against Pittsburgh in game seven of their next series, losing 6-2. The Caps completed one of the most impressive regular seasons in NHL history in 2009, yet fell to Montreal in a massive upset. Last year, the team seemingly gave up against Tampa Bay, losing in four straight games. And this season, when things looked bleak, the team responded with a strong effort to send the Boston Bruins home and the New Rangers to the brink. When previously this team had found ways to lose, this year they found a way to win and keep fighting. That was the difference. Perhaps that’s not good enough for many critics out there, but it seemed good enough for the team.

To a man, when Hunter stepped down as coach today the team expressed disappointment. Ovechkin took a significant drop in playing time, yet he was the first to celebrate goals on the bench. Semin, despite disappearing in the second round as per usual, was blocking shots and playing defense. And of course, Braden Holtby stood on his head and the team rallied around him. This postseason ended with a sense of hope, hope for the future rather than outright cynicism. That is a feeling we have not felt in years. That is the difference.

Hunter leaving the team is a disappointing, though not surprising loss. But he managed to leave behind a foundation and blueprint for how this team can continue winning in the future. That is not to say his system was perfect, it was not. I felt he failed to utilize the numerous offensive weapons he had at his disposal. The Rangers and Caps both had similar defensive systems and solid goaltending, but it was the Caps who had the more dangerous offensive players. While the Caps need to stick to a more defensive style, I felt they did so at times to a fault. Whoever McPhee finds to take over this team should think defense first, but also find a way to utilize his offensive stars while still maintaining that defensive system.

Is this the ending we wanted for the season? No. And now we also face the daunting task of replacing a coach that brought hope to this team. Yet, I remain hopeful. The Caps for so long felt frustrated by their abundance of talent and lack of success, but in his short time here, Dale Hunter showed them what they never seemed to learn under Boudreau, how to win in the playoffs. It’s not by offensive prowess alone, but by team dedication on both ends of the ice. If the team can build on this postseason and learn from it, then the future is bright for the Caps.

New Look Capitals Finding Success Where They Previous Have Fallen

The Washington Capitals tied their series with the New York Rangers at 2 Saturday with a 3-2 win.  The grinding style of play that led to the victory has become a trademark of the Caps this postseason as the team continues to redefine itself.  Previously, the Caps were a run-and-gun, offensive juggernaut who could outscore any team in the league as they coasted their way into the postseason.  Yet, the past four seasons have ended far too soon as they Caps fell victim to upset after upset.  Suddenly, the stars could not score and the team rapidly imploded.  Now with a new defensive system and a new coach, the Caps have exceeded almost everyone’s expectations.

The Caps have been a playoff team every year since 2008 but have yet to reach the conference finals despite twice being number one seed from the East and winning the President’s Trophy in 2010.  Prior to 2012, the constant of each postseason has been disappointment, most notably in 2010 when the Caps took a 3 -1 series lead over Montreal before losing in seven games in one of the biggest upsets in NHL history.  This year, after Dale Hunter took over as head coach, the Caps struggled under his tutelage and nearly missed the playoffs.  The coaching change appeared to have failed when the Caps lost 5-1 at home to Buffalo in what was thought to be the decisive game between the last 2 playoff contenders.  Yet, the Caps clawed all the way up to the seventh seed and were rewarded with a matchup against the defending Stanley Cup Champions.  Most experts I saw predicted Boston would win in five.  Yet here we are in round two, now tied at 2 with the top seeded Rangers.  What happened?

When Hunter took over the team, he preached a more defensive strategy.  The players struggled initially with it and Hunter went into the playoffs with a 30-23-8 record.  Add to these struggles injuries to the team’s top 2 goalies and hockey writers around the country began preparing their reactions for the yearly Washington collapse.  Yet, you could tell from games one and two that this was going to be different.  Facing the second best offense in the league, the Caps and rookie goalie Braden Holtby held the Bruins scoreless through 60 minutes before losing in overtime.  Rather than collapsing, the team fought back and won game two in Boston in yet another overtime game.  Two games in, and the team had allowed only two goals.  The series became the closest series in the history of the NHL before the Caps finally won it in game seven.

Not only had they won a series in which they were clearly outmatched, but it was the way they had won it that made it so noteworthy.  The team had not collapsed after not one, but two OT losses; they never trailed by more than one goal at any point; they led and still lead the playoffs in shots blocked; and they did it without relying on their top scorers.  Few playoff stories have gotten as much traction as Ovechkin’s ice time.  There are times when he has been “benched” receiving sometimes as little as a minute and a half of ice time in a single period.  Some have questioned if there was trouble in the locker room of if Hunter was sending a message, some people (myself included) ripped Hunter for taking out his best player so the other team wouldn’t have to.  The thing is…it’s working.  Hunter plays matchups and situations when it comes to his lines.  When the team is ahead, Ovechkin sits.  Does Ovechkin enjoy this setup?  No, and he has said so, but he has also said he’ll do whatever is good for the team.  Even Ovechkin’s staunchest critics will admit that he is a team player.  If the team keeps winning, he’ll keep sitting on the bench.

So far, however, the Caps have not relied on only his scoring in order to win.  The team is buying into this new system and everyone is playing two-way hockey.  The grinders are scoring big goals and the scorers are blocking shots.  Think back to game seven, the Caps won off of goals from Matt Hendricks and Joel Ward.  The team is getting contributions from everyone in their lineup.  The only player without a point so far is Jeff Schultz and he has only played 7 of 11 games.  The same effort can be seen on the other end of the ice where some of the Caps best players are giving themselves up to block shots.  Marcus Johansson has been hit in the face, Nicklas Backstrom looks unafraid despite coming back from a concussion, everyone is chipping in.  Even Alexander Semin, who consistently disappears every year come the playoffs, has turned in some gritty performances.  Did you ever in your life think anyone would describe Semin as “gritty”? 

Right now, we are watching a different kind of Capitals team.  They are finding ways to win when previously they would have found ways to lose.  While it may be fair to say that the Caps have gotten lucky with the remarkable play of Holtby in net, the Caps have seen a rookie step in before and were not able to capitalize.  In 2009, the Caps turned to rookie Semyon Varlamov after Jose Theodore was lit up for five goals and a loss in game one against New York.  The Caps still collapsed in round two, losing four out of five games to Pittsburgh after winning the first two.  Of course there’s no telling what may happen in this series.  With game five tonight in New York, the Caps may collapse and find themselves sent home in the second round yet again.  But, watching the way we have played thus far, I head into tonight’s game and this series with a renewed sense of confidence.