NHL Locks Out Players for Second Time in Eight Years

At midnight Sunday morning, the former NHL CBA expired and at 12:01 the players were officially locked out.  The NHL and the NHLPA were unable to reach an agreement on a new CBA and are now locked in an all too familiar labor dispute.  The last lockout happened in 2004 and resulted in the loss of the entire 2004-05 season.  Are we headed for another year without hockey?

While there are several issues that separate the two sides, the main dispute is over money (what else?).  Under the last agreement the player’s received 57% of generated revenue.  After watching the NFL and NBA lower the player revenue in their disputes last year, the NHL owners now look to lower this number considerably.  Most of the league’s offers made to the NHLPA would reduce the player’s share to about 47%.  While it may not be unreasonable for the owners to expect the players to receive a percentage comparable to other leagues, the players see a dangerous precedent being set by Commissioner Gary Bettman.

This is now the second lockout in eight years and the third in 18, all under Bettman.  Eight years ago, the NHL demanded a salary cap be a part of the new CBA.  The players refused, but both the league and the owners felt so strongly a salary cap was needed, they were willing to lock the players out for a full season.  The players eventually caved and gave up major concessions including a salary cap.  Just eight years later, the players find themselves locked out again.  This time, however, they have the memory of the concessions made on the last CBA.  Why did they give up so much if only to be locked out again during the very next negotiation?  Katie Strang of ESPN reports that the resolve of the NHLPA and the players is much stronger than it was eight years ago, and it’s no surprise; should the players cave again it would tell Bettman that locking the players out will always give him the upper hand.

There’s also a feeling among the players that they are being forced to fix the problems the owners created.  While the league complains about players getting paid too much, teams continue to offer massive contracts.  The biggest free agent splash in the offseason came when Zach Parise and Ryan Suter signed contracts for 13 years with the Minnesota Wild worth $96 million each.  These contracts would have once been shocking, now they seem common place.  If the teams think the players are paid too much or signed for too long, then they should not be offering those kinds of deals.

Hopefully Bettman is aware of the player’s sentiments and does not underestimate their resolve or this could be a lengthy lockout.  In situations such as this, there seems to be “unofficial” deadlines that bring both sides back to the negotiating table at various times during the dispute.  The first such deadline will be towards the end of September when the start of the regular season is put in jeopardy.  Some sort of dialog will begin, be it formal or informal.  If both sides recognize the other is serious, a real negotiation can take place.  If not, then the dispute will stretch into the regular season.

Usually, the first games missed also bring the two sides together when players start to miss their pay checks and owners start to refund ticket sales.  This year, however, the players will receive escrow payments in October equal to 8% of their 2011-2012 salaries.  Players will not be feeling the same pinch they usually feel in the early season and once the calendar hits November, the players can really make the owners sweat.  Why?  Because at that point the lockout will be putting the Winter Classic in jeopardy.  This season’s Classic could perhaps be the biggest and most successful as it features two of the most storied franchises in Detroit and Toronto playing at the Big House in Michigan.  The Winter Classic is one of the largest, most important events of the NHL season; something the league will not want to lose.

If a deal does not get done before the regular season, I do not think either side will get serious until late November/early December.  The players know the owners will be more likely to make a deal in November and with escrow payments and a stronger resolve, the players will not give in.  The question is what happens should the unthinkable happen and the Winter Classic is cancelled.  This is the first labor dispute where the Winter Classic will be an issue.  Just as the players do not want to always cave when locked out, the owners may not want to set a precedent of caving when the Winter Classic is threatened.  If it reaches that point, kiss the season goodbye.  The owners will drag it out to force concessions from the players and it will mean the loss of yet another NHL season.

While both sides try to calculate the resolve of the other, they both may have seriously miscalculated the resolve of the fans.  Let’s face it, hockey is not a popular sport in America.  It is not nearly as popular as the NFL, MLB, or NBA and yet it seemingly faces the most labor disputes.  In 2004, there was a sense among the fans that the lockout would ultimately help the sport and would mean a stronger league and lower ticket prices.  Instead, ticket prices have risen on average 39% since 2005 and the league is locked in its third labor dispute in 18 years.  At some point, you are asking too much.  Don’t expect them to understand why you could not get a satisfactory deal eight years ago and don’t expect them to feel sympathy for the millionaires who get paid to play hockey.

The NHL cannot continue to abuse a beleaguered fan base because at some point, they won’t come back.  Should this lockout last a full season, it will do irreparable damage to the league.  The NHL will not emerge in a stronger financial position, but will lose every casual fan.  Only the most die-hard fans will remain and the NHL will have cemented its position as a secondary sports league.

RG3 Impresses in Debut, Stuns the Saints

People will say it was only one game, but for anyone who watched Robert Griffin III’s regular season debut today in New Orleans, it was hard not to get excited.

RG3 went 19 for 26 with 320 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions.  He easily out-performed the other four rookie quarterbacks also making their first starts.  Andrew Luck, Brandon Weeden, RyanTannehill, and Russell Wilson all lost and threw for a combined two touchdowns and 11 interceptions.   RG3 was the lone winner and the only one who did not turn the ball over.

I’ll admit, I was skeptical coming out of preseason.  I liked Luck’s skill-set better and would have preferred him in the draft, but I was still happy with RG3’s selection.  I liked his accuracy, his arm strength, and his mobility. He had the potential to be a franchise QB, but we did not see a whole lot of that ability in the preseason.  Granted, Mike Shanahan did not want to show a whole lot in the preseason, but the preseason is a time for rookies to adjust to the pro level.  The game is faster, players hit harder, and mistakes are more costly.  RG3 attempted only 31 passes in the entire preseason.  While he did not throw an interception, he seemed to struggle at times against pressure.  It was not until the third preseason game against Indianapolis where we began to see his potential and even then it was only briefly.

I am skeptical no more.  I am all in. Barring any injury setbacks, I think RG3 can be exactly what everyone has thought he would be for months now based on what I saw Sunday.

The initial game plan became obvious after the first few plays; give RG3 easy passes and short runs to make him comfortable.  It worked.  The Redskins marched down the field in the opening drive allowing for a Billy Cundiff field goal and a three point lead.  On the very next drive, RG3 delivered a pass to Pierre Garcon that went 88 yards for a touchdown.

His struggles against pressure?  Gone.  RG3scrambled away from pressure, finishing with 42 rushing yards and was only sacked once.  Perhaps one of the most impressive plays of the game was a broken play in which RG3 was forced to scramble to his left, turned, and threw to the other side of the field where he found Fred Davis for a 26 yard gain.  Throwing across the field is not an easy thing for any QB to do, and he made it look easy.

The speed is there, the accuracy is there, the throwing strength is there, and the quick decision-making is there.  He showed great poise and understanding for a rookie.  Even a QB dripping with talent will not be successful if he cannot make smart decisions with the football (see Vince Young) and it takes some QBs years to adjust the NFL game (see Mark Sanchez).  RG3 looked like a veteran QB today and he did it against one of the most hostile crowds in the NFL at the Superdome.

Again, let’s not get ahead of ourselves.  Even Donovan McNabb won in his Redskins’ debut.  RG3 will have bad games this season just like every other QB. He has not proven himself yet. What he did show is that the skill and the potential that we have been hearing about for months are there.   You can’t always tell if a player’s skills will translate to the NFL level.  It looks like we won’t have to worry about that.  More importantly, he showed that there’s a chance, a hope, that FINALLY the Redskins may have gotten it right.

No Blog

No blog this week thanks to the holiday.  See you all next week.

Redskins Ready to Go

Three games down, one to go.  The Redskins will wrap up their preseason on Wednesday, but we likely got our best view of what the Redskins will look like this season from Saturday’s game against Indianapolis.  Here are my thoughts on what we’ve seen so far:

I remain cautiously optimistic about Robert Griffin III after three performances.  He was not asked to do much against Buffalo, took a step back against Chicago, and looked very sharp against Indianapolis.  Mike Shanahan has declared that he is done for the preseason, so his final stats are 20-31 for 193 yards and two touchdowns.  Perhaps most importantly he has not thrown a single interception.  His arm strength looks as good as advertised as does his speed, though Shanahan has limited his running.  He still has not fully adjusted to the speed of NFL linemen and he has not always looked accurate, but at this point I’m nit-picking.  For a rookie, he looks good.

THERE IS NO QUARTERBACK CONTROVERY.  This came up after the game against Chicago.  Griffin went 5-8 for only 49 yards.  Kirk Cousins, meanwhile, went 18-23 with 264 yards and three touchdowns.  People were a little surprised and a little worried when the Redskins took Cousins in the fourth round of the draft.  What if he played well in the preseason and Griffin did not?  Will this add pressure to the young QB?  No.  A team cannot give up what the Redskins did for Griffin and not give him a chance to prove himself.  Griffin is safe as the starter and will be safe even if he does not dazzle us all like we had hoped.  Cousins, meanwhile, is still third on the depth chart.  It’s good to have him and that he’s playing well, but he’s not a threat to Griffin.  Not yet anyway.

When Shanahan has to sit down with his coaches and finally cut the roster down to 53, his hardest decision will come at wide receiver where everyone has upped their game.  Let’s start with what we know.  Pierre Garcon will be the number one and Santana Moss will move to the slot.  Former Virginia Tech WR Josh Morgan was signed as an FA in the offseason, but his spot was in danger due to injury concerns.  He has played very well in the preseason, however, proving himself to be a dependable option.  Leonard Hankerson has looked lackadaisical at times with only three preseason catches, but he came in high up on the depth chart and I don’t think he’s done anything to jeopardize that.

That leaves only two, possibly three spots for five other players.  New-comers Aldrick Robinson and Dezmon Briscoe have showed both reliable hands and playmaking abilities.  They have both played extremely well.  Anthony Armstrong just cannot stay healthy and has only a single catch.  He has not shown enough in his career here for the coaches to give him another shot over either Robinson or Briscoe.  I think he’s gone.  Same goes for Terrence Austin.  There was a chance for him if he could establish himself more as a return man, but he has been unable to do so and his WR play has not generated excitement the way the others have.

Perhaps the most controversial decision will be over Brandon Banks.  Shanahan made it clear he needed to make the roster as a WR this year, but he caught only two passes against Buffalo while being targeted nine times.  He simply does not have the height to compete as an NFL WR.  This has not gone unnoticed by the coaching staff, who have not given him significant playing time at WR since that first game.  They are also exploring other players as kick returners including Santana Moss.  Banks won’t make it as a WR and Shanahan is trying to find someone else to return kicks.  The problem is that no one has come close.  Banks won’t make this team if Shanahan keeps only six receivers.  If he keeps seven, Banks will take that last spot.

Not sure exactly where fan-favorite Chris Cooley stands.  Right now he’s behind Fred Davis and Niles Paul on the depth chart, who was moved from WR to tight end.  Everyone knows how good Davis can be, but Paul has looked inconsistent.  He’s had some big drops, but that is not unusual for new tight ends who sometimes find catching more difficult with the constant blocking that comes with the position.

The possibility of a year-long suspension still hangs heavy over Davis.  One more failed drug test, and he’s out.  Cooley is also listed on the depth chart at fullback as well as TE.  I think he makes the team, but he won’t see much of the field.

A real Jekyll and Hyde performance so far by the offensive line, who allowed zero sacks in Buffalo, got shredded by Chicago, and looked ok against Indianapolis.  This will quietly be one of the more important storylines for the Redskins as the front five are now tasked with protecting the team’s franchise QB.  When you look at all other offensive positions, the line is the biggest weakness.  This offense will only be as good as the line.  I will be surprised if Griffin starts 16 games this season because I think he is going to take too many hits to stay healthy.  The worst thing about it is that with few draft picks and a salary cap penalty, I don’t think the line will get better for another two years.

The running back position, thought to be a weakness, now looks like it could be a potential strength with four players shouldering the load.  The Redskins looked like they were in trouble with injuries to Evan Royster and Roy Helu Jr.  With Tim Hightower returning from ACL surgery, it seemed he was not a dependable option.  Enter Alfred Morris, the preseason star who has caught everyone’s eye with his powerful running style.  This guy just does not go down behind the line.  While Royster, Helu, and Hightower are all question marks, if you can go into the season with four reliable backs, suddenly you are reducing the workload of everyone.  If Hightower goes down one week, you can spread the carries around Royster, Helu and Morris.  If Helu gets injured, you can go back to Hightower.  Before it looked like each guy had to prove himself capable of making this roster.  Now, I don’t think the Redskins can risk cutting any of the four.

The Redskins will struggle to defend the pass this season.  Jay Cutler tore the secondary apart for 122 yards.  When he had time, Andrew Luck was also able to embarrass the Redskins.  He finished with 151 yards and a touchdown.  Shanahan experimented somewhat by playing DeAngelo Hall at safety.  Maybe he does not think Hall can play corner anymore, or he desperately needs someone else at safety, but either way it’s not a good sign.  Brandon Meriweather should be back for the start of the season and Tanard Jackson was really impressive against the Colts, but otherwise this is a thin secondary.  It looks like the Redskins’ best option to defend the pass this season will be to pressure the quarterback.

Speaking of pressuring the quarterback, the Redskins look deep at both defensive line and linebacker.  The season-ending injury to Chris Neild is a blow, but not a major one and they seemed to play well against Indianapolis without him.  Jarvis Jenkins looks to be as good as advertised in his first year of action.  Brian Orakpo is expected to be fine for the season opener, and even without him the Redskins’ linebackers harassed Luck all night.  Teams are going to be faced with the daunting task of somehow blocking both Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan.  Depending on how good the secondary can play, this defense may be ready to take the next step.

One preseason game to go, but it will be mostly tryouts among the backups to make the final 53.  It’s time to start the countdown to September 9 and New Orleans!

Things to Remember about Strasburg's Shutdown

At the beginning of the season, general manager Mike Rizzo was adamant: Stephen Strasburg would be kept on a strict innings limit.  At the time, it raised a few eyebrows, but he was largely dismissed.  The Nationals had never been in playoff contention, their best record was the .500 record they accumulated in 2005, who cared if they wanted to sit their best pitcher?

One hundred and twenty-two games later, the Nationals have the best record in baseball and are poised to make a World Series run.  Yet, Rizzo’s tune hasn’t changed.  When Strasburg hits his limit, he will be shut down.

By now, most people know both sides of the debate.  With the innings limit rapidly approaching, there are a few things fans should keep in mind.  First, this is going to happen.  Regardless of where you stand on this argument, regardless of how many former players, managers, analysts come out and say the Nationals are crazy, Strasburg is going to be shut down.  Rizzo has been adamant since the season began and he has not backed off of his comments.  The decision has been made.

Why not hold Strasburg out at the beginning of the season and save him for the playoffs?  No one knew the Nationals were going to be the best team in baseball.  There would be no point in saving him for the last half of another .500 season.  Why didn’t the Nationals play a six-man rotation or shut him down midway through the season when it became apparent the Nationals were going to be a playoff contender?  The Nationals wanted Strasburg to acclimate fully to a normal rotation.  They wanted him to play on four days rest and they wanted him used to a regular MLB workload.  You can agree or disagree with their reasoning, but that’s how they’ve approached this season.

Even if Rizzo wanted to change his mind, at this point it would probably be too late.  He would be going against the mountain of medical evidence he has pushed to the media in order to justify his decision, meaning if anything were to happen to Strasburg ever, the blame would be placed solely on Rizzo’s door.

He would also be snubbing Strasburg’s agent, Scott Boras.  Boras strongly supported the Nationals’ decision and has made his support known among the various media outlets.  Boras is the most powerful agent in the MLB and also represents Danny Espinosa, Bryce Harper, Edwin Jackson, Xavier Nady, and Jayson Werth on the Nationals, as well as several other MLB stars.  If the Nationals were to publicly humiliate him and potentially endanger the career of one of his most prominent clients, why would he encourage any of his clients to play for the Nationals ever again?  The Nationals cannot make decisions based solely on the opinions of an agent, but it does not hurt to have a good relationship with him.

We will never know if shutting down Strasburg was the right move or not.  Jason Stark of ESPN went into great detail on this in his article and he is absolutely correct.  Whatever may happen to Strasburg in the future, we will never know for sure if shutting him down ultimately helped or hurt him.  The medical community may applaud the decision, but they can never definitively determine if this helped him.

We also will never know if shutting down Strasburg hurt the team in the playoffs.  If the Nationals collapse in the postseason, many will speculate that it was because of the absence of their ace, but there is no way to prove that.  The Nationals would have to figure out a way to win without him even if he does pitch.  Strasburg is a pitcher, not an everyday player.  In a best of seven series, the Nationals can only count on their ace for two games.  Some teams try to push their best pitcher in a game seven on three days rest, but if the Nationals are considering sitting him when nothing appears to be wrong, then they won’t risk pitching him on three days rest.  So in a best of seven series, Strasburg would only pitch twice and neither of those games is a guaranteed win.  Of course having your best pitcher on the mound helps, but the Nationals would still need offense and strong outings from the rest of their rotation in order to win.  Strasburg’s absence may not be the major loss everyone has made it out to be.

The biggest hurdle for the Nationals may perhaps be mental.  There are some who would interpret Strasburg’s shutdown as a sign that management does not believe in their chances to win this year.  This may be a valid criticism, but the Nationals did the same thing with Jordan Zimmermann last season and have been consistent on their feelings on Strasburg since day one.  Whether they had the best record or worst record in baseball, they were going to sit him.

Among the heated debate and harsh criticisms coming from all over the nation, much of this debate is moot because Strasburg will be shut down.  The important thing to remember is that there are many reasons to shut him down apart from the medical debate.  Free agents will see that this team takes care of their players and Boras and other agents will be more open to working with the Nationals in the future.  The team has a fantastic rotation even without Strasburg and his absence will be felt only twice a series.  One final thing to keep in mind, Strasburg has never pitched a full MLB season in his career.  He was brought up from the minors in 2010, went down with the injury, and returned late in 2011.  If medical evidence suggests it would be better he not pitch a full season, does it behoove the Nationals to push him through a full MLB season and the playoffs?  Not to me and not to Mike Rizzo.

RG3 Makes a Good, Albeit Short, Debut

All eyes were on Robert Griffin III Thursday night, as he took the field in Buffalo for his first professional game.  Granted it was an abbreviated, preseason appearance, but it was our first glimpse of the new franchise quarterback in a game situation.  RG3 did not disappoint.

After a slow start, Griffin led the team down the field and threw for the game’s only touchdown, a 20-yd pass to Pierre Garcon.  Griffin went 4-6 in the game with 70 yards and the one touchdown.  He made good reads, spread the ball around, and managed to get rid of it quickly.  He was not sacked at all a major victory for a banged up offensive line, but also a sign of Griffin’s quick decision making.

Another sign of Griffin’s confidence at the NFL level was his ability to audible at the line.  He seemed very comfortable as field general and the offense clearly responded to him.

There were a few glitches in his play as well, as should be expected with a rookie.  It took a few drives before the offense was able to get into any sort of rhythm and a muffed handoff between Griffin and running back Evan Royster resulted in a lost fumble.  Mike Shanahan was also pretty conservative with his play-calling, clearly trying to keep the young QB in his comfort zone.  For the first preseason game, this is to be expected.  Shanahan will no doubt open up the playbook slightly as the preseason continues, but for the most part we will have to wait until September 9 to see what Griffin can really do.

Still, for his first preseason game it was mission accomplished.  He looked comfortable running an NFL offense and reading an NFL defense.  Based on the very small sample size, Griffin so far looks as good as advertised.

A few other notes from Thursday’s game and training camp:

-Pierre Garcon looked versatile and in-sync with RG3.  If he is able to establish himself as a number one receiver, the Redskins will have a very versatile receiving core.  Josh Morgan looked very good as well.  If they both continue to play well then Santana Moss can move to slot receiver, a position better suited for the veteran.

-When healthy, the Redskins appear to have four dependable running backs.  Alfred Morris looked impressive with his 54 yards against Buffalo.  He keeps his feet moving and always falls forward.  While I believe Tim Hightower is the clear starter, I would not be surprised to see Royster, Morris, and Roy Helu Jr all have significant playing time this season.  Spreading the ball around these four could take some of the pressure off the injury-prone Hightower (and Helu).

-RG3 was not sacked once, despite the absence of Kory Lichtensteiger, Jammal Brown, and Chris Chester.  This was partly due to Griffin’s quick decision making, but the line played well.  The o-line was one of the major question marks for the Redskins this season.  If they continue to play well and Griffin can keep making quick decisions, it may not be as big a concern as many had thought.

-Anthony Armstrong and Brandon Banks may be facing an uphill battle to make this roster.  Armstrong did not play in Thursday’s game due to a shoulder injury and still did not practice on Monday.  Banks was targeted a team-high nine times but caught only two passes for seven yards.  At 5’7”, Banks just does not seem to have the height to compete for jump balls.  His speed will only get him so far.  This team has an abundance of wide receivers and these two fan-favorites may find themselves cut if they cannot establish themselves in the preseason.

-Bryan Kehl led the team with six tackles, and looked like a dominant defensive force.

-The battle for the kicking job still appears pretty even.  Neither Graham Gano nor Neil Rackers was given a chance at a field goal in Thursday’s game.

More Questions Than Answers at Offensive Line for the Redskins

All through the offseason, the focus of Redskins’ fans has been on their new star quarterback, Robert Griffin III.  The well-spoken, speedy, accurate rookie has the QB-starved fans drooling and circling their calendars for the start of the season.  Amid all the fan-fare and celebrations, however, there is one part of RG3’s game that may hinder his play this season:  even he can’t throw from his back.

As the experts descend on Ashburn to evaluate the Redskins, each has been writing on how frequently Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan seem to be in the backfield.  Head coach Mike Shanahan told reporters he wanted to throw everything at RG3 in camp to see what the young rookie could handle, but the offensive line’s inability to protect against the blitz highlights what could be the Achilles heel of the team this season.

In 2011, Baylor allowed 29 sacks on the season.  The Redskins, meanwhile, ranked 21^st in the NFL in sacks allowed with 41 sacks.  They allowed about 2.5 sacks per game not including other hits to the QB.  RG3’s speed allows for the Redskins to run the option and, while RG3 will no doubt be taught extensively on how to slide, you can expect opposing players to take a few shots at him.  RG3 will be playing a longer season against bigger players and will be playing behind an O-line that allows more hits.  Shanahan could choose not to utilize the QB option, and RG3’s mobility will allow him to escape the pocket, but it is safe to say he will take more hits this season than he’s used to.

The Redskins did not get better at offensive line in the offseason.  The team returns all five starters from last season, with Trent Williams at LT, LG Kory Lichtensteiger, C Will Montgomery, RG Chris Chester, and RT Jammal Brown.  The Redskins chose not to make any big free agent moves partly due to the $18 million cap penalty the team was forced to absorb this season, but also because the team felt comfortable with their starters.  To be fair, they did play well before injuries and suspensions took their toll, but the line still seems precariously fragile.

Lichtensteiger is already out having undergone knee surgery.  He is expected back for the season opener, but as it was his knee that kept him out last season, I fear this may be a lingering issue for him all season.  Speaking of lingering injuries, Brown is also not practicing at the moment due to his hip.  While an MRI showed the injury did not require surgery, there is currently no timetable for his return.  With Williams one drug test away from a full year suspension, it is not impossible to see the O-line suddenly down three starters.

Williams knows he’s on the razor’s edge and I think he will keep his nose clean.  I have to wonder, however, about Lichtensteiger and Brown’s durability.  I would be shocked if both did not miss significant time this season.  If the line is already struggling to protect RG3 in camp, what will happen when they face Jason Pierre Paul or Demarcus Ware?  The Redskins realized they needed a franchise QB and they made a move to draft RG3.  They realized they needed weapons for him so they re-signed Tim Hightower and brought in Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan.  What they did not do is bring in players to protect their investment, and that could end up really costing them.