Nationals’ injuries hampering their championship hopes

It has been a rough year for the Nationals. The days when they were declaring “world series or bust” now seem like a lifetime ago. The Nationals currently ‘boast’ a record of 29-29, 7.5 games behind Atlanta for the division lead.

Not the start most people had in mind.

Bad fielding and a weak bullpen have unquestionably played a role in the team’s struggles, but the biggest reason is the laundry list of injuries they have suffered.

Danny Espinosa was added to the DL on Tuesday, joining Bryce Harper, Wilson Ramos, Ross Detwiler, and Ryan Mattheus. Stephen Strasburg was placed on the DL today after the team initially hoped he would not have to miss a start.

With all these injuries, the Nationals have held players out a day or two in the hopes that they would not have to be put on the DL. That, more than anything else, is what makes these injuries so troubling. Every team gets hit with injuries; some teams get hit harder than others. The Nationals have had their share of injuries, but have they made things worse on themselves by not shutting down players immediately?

Harper was placed on the DL due to knee bursitis. The Washington Post reports he first injured it in Atlanta about a month ago. Of course, running full speed into the wall in Los Angeles likely made things worse. Harper was not placed on the DL after that game, however. In fact, he appeared in nine more games before he was finally shutdown.

Detwiler was not expected to go on the DL after being pulled May 15 against the Dodgers. The team decided to hold him out of his next start, but he continued throwing and ended up aggravating the injury.

Do you see a pattern developing here?

Espinosa came into the season declaring he had a torn rotator cuff, but that he would be able to play through it. Guess what happened. He did not allow himself to heal by continuing to play and has looked awful all season long.

Why are players being allowed to talk their way out of the DL only to end up on it later?

When players do not allow injuries to heal, they can often get worse or at least fail to get better. That is especially true in a sport like baseball with so many games almost every day. It is up to the manager and training staff to determine when a player needs to sit.

The Nationals had no problem with this last year when they sat a seemingly healthy Strasburg once he reached his innings limit. Yet, this season they have not exercised the same amount of discretion.

Harper pinch-hit two days after running into the wall in Los Angeles. Where was the caution? Why not sit him a few more days? He may have said he was fine, but that’s what players do. Heck, Harper tried to convince Johnson he could stay in that game in Los Angeles. Why not give arguably your best player a couple extra days off to make sure he is ok or immediately place him on the DL?

The Nationals mercifully put Espinosa out of his misery Tuesday by placing him on the DL. His season has been a disaster from the word go. He announced before the season that he had a torn rotator cuff, but that he would play through it. He was terrible. Then it came out on May 24 that he was also dealing with a fractured right wrist.

Espinosa has insisted his injuries were not affecting his play. I sure hope they were because it would explain why he has been one of the worst hitters in the league. That’s no exaggeration; he has literally been one of the worst hitters in MLB this season with a .158 average and a .193 OBP.

Why the Nationals allowed this train-wreck to continue for as long as they did is baffling. The highest Espinosa’s average has been this season is .200. He reached it once on April 10 and again on May 8. His average has been below .200 for the rest of the season.

Even if you argue that Espinosa is one of the best defensive players on the team, which both Johnson and Rizzo believe, you cannot afford to carry this hole in your lineup for over two months. How could they not see that Espinosa trying to play through his injuries just wasn’t working? How could the Nationals have made this same mistake multiple times this season?

The only reason I can think of is desperation. This team has pushed all the chips into the middle and gone all-in. They declared openly this spring that they were the team to beat. With the team already struggling they suddenly faced decisions on whether to put Harper, Epsinosa, Ramos, Detwiler, and Strasburg on the DL. Hoping everyone just ‘plays through it’ and then deciding whether to put them on the DL is a terrible strategy. Had the Nationals been cautious with their star players from the start, had they listened to the doctors and trainers instead of the players and the standings, then I think we would be a lot closer to seeing the full lineup than we are right now.

Hopefully the Nationals did not gamble their season along with the health of their players.

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Nationals Preview: Can the Nationals handle the expectations?

The Nationals came into last season declaring that the rebuild was over, that they were going to raise eyebrows around the league. Few expected them to be the best team in baseball.

Despite all their success however, their season came to an end in devastating fashion as they gave up a massive lead to St. Louis to lose in game five. This year, they are a little older, a little wiser, and a lot better. They boast what many believe to be the best roster in the MLB. Given last season’s success and the players acquired in the offseason, the expectations for this team have skyrocketed.

The Nationals will open the season Monday against the Miami Marlins. Here are the questions facing this team headed into what many believe could be a World Series season.

Will the Nationals’ rotation remain as dominant on the mound?

The Nationals are returning four of their five starters from last season’s rotation with Edwin Jackson the only defector. Jackson was the weakest link in what was arguably the best rotation in baseball. Dan Haren was brought in to replace him, but he has struggled this spring giving up an ERA of 6.39 in only six games. You cannot read too much into spring training, but his inability to control his pitches and his injury history definitely are causes for concern.

Still, Haren is expected to be the team’s fifth starter so even if he does not play well he will not drag the team down too far. The team’s plan last year was for Chien Ming-Wang to be the team’s fifth starter and it would be hard for Haren to do much worse. If Haren can return to form, he can be an upgrade from Jackson.

There is no reason to doubt that Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, and Ross Detwieler will not be able to pick up where they left off last season. Strasburg will also be entering this season with no limitations. As unbelievable as it may seem, this rotation could actually be better than last year.

The wildcard of course is injuries. The rotation was remarkably healthy last year as none of their five starters missed a single start due to injury. Statistically speaking, that is not likely to happen again, but if they can stay healthy they will continue to frustrate batters around the league.

How will the new additions fit into the team?

In addition to Haren, the Nationals also added OF Denard Span and closer Rafael Soriano. Span will be the leadoff hitter the team desperately missed last season. While his acquisition ultimately led to the trade of Michael Morse, the Nationals needed a leadoff hitter more than they needed Morse’s power. Span fills one of the few holes that still remained from last season’s team.

Soriano was an unexpected, but welcome addition. The Nationals did not have a single designated closer last season choosing instead to have more of a closer by committee approach and as a result were sent packing when they needed a save the most. Drew Storen is a good pitcher, but it will take a long time for Nationals’ fans to forget last season’s game five collapse.

It was with that game in mind no doubt that led Rizzo to sign Soriano.

Soriano has 132 career saves, while Storen has only 52. He is an established closer who can finish games in pressure situations. With a deep playoff run being the goal, a strong closer could be an invaluable addition to the team.

How good will Bryce Harper be?

It is important to remember that Spring Training stats do not matter and do not always indicate what will happen in the regular season. Having said that, if Harper hits anything close to what he’s done this spring, he will be one of the most dangerous hitters in the MLB.

Harper has a .478 AVG, .500 OBP, .716 SLG, and 1.216 OPS this spring. Those are some impressive numbers, especially when you consider the fact that he is still 20 years old.

It will be interesting to see how pitchers pitch to him this year. The normal progression for young batters is that pitchers through a lot of fast balls at them to start. Once they adjust to the speed of the majors, pitchers begin using off-speed pitches instead. Once they adjust to that, pitchers usually will have a blueprint of where batters struggle the most.

Harper has already gone through this progression with pitchers and he’s still getting better. I’ve heard a lot of analysts say he should be an MVP candidate this season and why not? Mike Trout was a legitimate MVP candidate last year when he was 20. Harper certainly has the skill set to be a dynamic player.

Perhaps that is expecting a bit too much from Harper and not giving enough credit to Trout’s remarkable season, but I think it would be a disappointment to both fans and Harper himself if he was not the Nationals’ best player this season.

Is the lack of left-handed relievers a cause for concern?

The Nationals have said they are comfortable with their relievers’ abilities against left-handed batters, but I am skeptical.

Teams are going to throw every lefty pinch hitter they have in the dugout in every tight, late game situation and force the Nationals to justify their faith in their bullpen.

The good news is that we will know in a month or so whether there’s a problem. If the team has struggled against lefties, Rizzo will undoubtedly seek out a trade. He has shown that he is all in on this season and will do what he can to make this team playoff-ready.

Even with the bullpen the team has, they will remain the best team in the league. The problem is what happens in the playoffs when the stakes are higher, and the Nationals have no left-handed relievers?

This is the only real weakness I see on this team and I hope it does not end of hurting them when it matters most.

Predictions?

The Nationals were the best team in baseball last season and they got even better in the offseason. The Braves improved considerably as well, but the Nationals are still the front-runners in the NL East leading into the season.

The only thing that makes me nervous is that history tells you the best team on paper frequently does not turn out to be the best team on the field. Injuries could pop up as the Nationals remained remarkably healthy last year and the strength of the bullpen is a question mark.

Sometimes, good teams just do not live up to expectations. The mental strain of being the best team may get the best of the Nats, but that’s why having Davey Johnson at the helm for one more year is crucial. If anyone can keep tabs on the Nationals’ mentality, it’s him.

The Braves will be good, but not as good as the Nationals who will end up winning the division. If they do not, it will be a huge disappointment.

But this season will not be about regular season accolades, it will be about the playoffs. The Nationals appear to be capable of winning the World Series and probably anything short of an NL pennant will be looked at as a failure.

The only weakness this team may potentially have is the bullpen, but the addition of Soriano allows for greater flexibility and if need be, Rizzo will add a left-handed reliever some time during the season. I believe the Nationals will win the division and the NL pennant, but will come up short in the World Series.

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National's Dream Season Has Nightmare Ending

The Nationals were one strike away from their first every playoff series win.  One more strike would send them to the NLCS.  Then it all came crashing down.

Washington fans were dealt another heartbreak last Friday as they witnessed one of the most spectacular collapses in sports history.  Up 6-0 in a series-clinching game five, the Nationals fell 9-7 after four allowed runs in the ninth inning.

The inevitable question being asked of course is if the Nationals could have won this series with Stephen Strasburg.  Strasburg would have pitched games one and five as the team’s ace.  Surely in a series that came down to game five, two games from Strasburg could have given the Nationals that one extra win?

I will say the same thing I said when Strasburg was shut down: we will never know.  All you pro-Strasburg critics do not have a crystal ball and have no idea how Strasburg would have pitched if given the chance.  Starting pitching was a major problem this series.  In two games, Gio Gonzalez walked 11 batters and gave up 5 runs.  Jordan Zimmermann allowed five runs and lasted only three innings in his one start.  Edwin Jackson, the only starter with postseason experience, lasted five innings while giving up five runs.  In fact, the only starter who did pitch well was the one who replaced Strasburg, Ross Detwiler.  While some would argue that adding Strasburg would have helped a rotation that struggled so much this series, there’s no guarantee he would not have struggled too.

Even if they had, it would not have mattered.  The Cardinals have been in pressure situations before.  After Friday’s win, the Cardinals have won six straight elimination games.  The Nationals, meanwhile, came into this series young and inexperienced.  If the Nationals learn one thing from this experience, it should be this: experience matters.

In June, the Nationals were one of the hottest teams in baseball.  The young team rode a six game winning streak into a series against the Yankees.  The series was the closest thing to a playoff atmosphere most of the players had experienced.  The Nationals were hot and the Yankees were the Yankees.  The national media and sold out crowds flocked to DC in anticipation.

The result?  The Nationals were swept.  Only one game was close, a marathon game that went 14 innings before the Yankees pulled away.  At that point it became clear; the Nationals were not yet ready for the playoffs.  They were not ready for that type of attention and pressure.

The Cardinals seemed like a good matchup when comparing rosters, but you cannot discount experience.  It takes a mentally strong team to battle back from a 6-0 deficit in the playoffs and an inexperienced one to lose it.

Heads up though, the future is bright in DC.  This team has a young core that will continue to grow and that Mike Rizzo can continue to build around.  Next season Strasburg will have no limitations, the team will have more experience, and the majority of the 98-game winning roster will return.  This one may hurt, but there are good times ahead for the Nationals.

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Things to Remember about Strasburg's Shutdown

At the beginning of the season, general manager Mike Rizzo was adamant: Stephen Strasburg would be kept on a strict innings limit.  At the time, it raised a few eyebrows, but he was largely dismissed.  The Nationals had never been in playoff contention, their best record was the .500 record they accumulated in 2005, who cared if they wanted to sit their best pitcher?

One hundred and twenty-two games later, the Nationals have the best record in baseball and are poised to make a World Series run.  Yet, Rizzo’s tune hasn’t changed.  When Strasburg hits his limit, he will be shut down.

By now, most people know both sides of the debate.  With the innings limit rapidly approaching, there are a few things fans should keep in mind.  First, this is going to happen.  Regardless of where you stand on this argument, regardless of how many former players, managers, analysts come out and say the Nationals are crazy, Strasburg is going to be shut down.  Rizzo has been adamant since the season began and he has not backed off of his comments.  The decision has been made.

Why not hold Strasburg out at the beginning of the season and save him for the playoffs?  No one knew the Nationals were going to be the best team in baseball.  There would be no point in saving him for the last half of another .500 season.  Why didn’t the Nationals play a six-man rotation or shut him down midway through the season when it became apparent the Nationals were going to be a playoff contender?  The Nationals wanted Strasburg to acclimate fully to a normal rotation.  They wanted him to play on four days rest and they wanted him used to a regular MLB workload.  You can agree or disagree with their reasoning, but that’s how they’ve approached this season.

Even if Rizzo wanted to change his mind, at this point it would probably be too late.  He would be going against the mountain of medical evidence he has pushed to the media in order to justify his decision, meaning if anything were to happen to Strasburg ever, the blame would be placed solely on Rizzo’s door.

He would also be snubbing Strasburg’s agent, Scott Boras.  Boras strongly supported the Nationals’ decision and has made his support known among the various media outlets.  Boras is the most powerful agent in the MLB and also represents Danny Espinosa, Bryce Harper, Edwin Jackson, Xavier Nady, and Jayson Werth on the Nationals, as well as several other MLB stars.  If the Nationals were to publicly humiliate him and potentially endanger the career of one of his most prominent clients, why would he encourage any of his clients to play for the Nationals ever again?  The Nationals cannot make decisions based solely on the opinions of an agent, but it does not hurt to have a good relationship with him.

We will never know if shutting down Strasburg was the right move or not.  Jason Stark of ESPN went into great detail on this in his article and he is absolutely correct.  Whatever may happen to Strasburg in the future, we will never know for sure if shutting him down ultimately helped or hurt him.  The medical community may applaud the decision, but they can never definitively determine if this helped him.

We also will never know if shutting down Strasburg hurt the team in the playoffs.  If the Nationals collapse in the postseason, many will speculate that it was because of the absence of their ace, but there is no way to prove that.  The Nationals would have to figure out a way to win without him even if he does pitch.  Strasburg is a pitcher, not an everyday player.  In a best of seven series, the Nationals can only count on their ace for two games.  Some teams try to push their best pitcher in a game seven on three days rest, but if the Nationals are considering sitting him when nothing appears to be wrong, then they won’t risk pitching him on three days rest.  So in a best of seven series, Strasburg would only pitch twice and neither of those games is a guaranteed win.  Of course having your best pitcher on the mound helps, but the Nationals would still need offense and strong outings from the rest of their rotation in order to win.  Strasburg’s absence may not be the major loss everyone has made it out to be.

The biggest hurdle for the Nationals may perhaps be mental.  There are some who would interpret Strasburg’s shutdown as a sign that management does not believe in their chances to win this year.  This may be a valid criticism, but the Nationals did the same thing with Jordan Zimmermann last season and have been consistent on their feelings on Strasburg since day one.  Whether they had the best record or worst record in baseball, they were going to sit him.

Among the heated debate and harsh criticisms coming from all over the nation, much of this debate is moot because Strasburg will be shut down.  The important thing to remember is that there are many reasons to shut him down apart from the medical debate.  Free agents will see that this team takes care of their players and Boras and other agents will be more open to working with the Nationals in the future.  The team has a fantastic rotation even without Strasburg and his absence will be felt only twice a series.  One final thing to keep in mind, Strasburg has never pitched a full MLB season in his career.  He was brought up from the minors in 2010, went down with the injury, and returned late in 2011.  If medical evidence suggests it would be better he not pitch a full season, does it behoove the Nationals to push him through a full MLB season and the playoffs?  Not to me and not to Mike Rizzo.

Bryce Harper Here to Stay?

Bryce Harper was expected to make an impact, just not in DC.  Not yet.  Though he impressed in spring training, manager Davey Johnson sent him to AAA Syracuse and GM Mike Rizzo was adamant that he would remain in the minors for the majority of the season.  Yet, Harper was called up on April 27 and on the next day, he made his major league debut against the Los Angeles Dodgers.  Since then, Harper has been one of the few consistent bats on a lineup desperate for some offense.

Harper was brought up because the Nationals have been plagued by injuries all season.  When Ryan Zimmerman went down, the Nationals had little choice but to bring in the young star and hope he could manage the major leagues for a few games.  Thirty-two games later, Harper is still here.  Again, perhaps the team would have sent him back to the minors if the injuries did not continue to decimate the roster.  Michael Morse has played only two games, Zimmerman has lingering shoulder issues, and Jayson Werth and Mark DeRosa are both on the disabled list.  Right now, the team just cannot afford to send Harper back down to the minors.

Even if they had the depth, I’m not sure the team would want to send him back.  Harper has made the most of his time in the majors with a .288 batting average, .380 on base percentage, and a .542 slugging percentage, all of which are among the team’s best.  He has also hit five home runs and has two stolen bases, including a home plate steal in the infamous Cole Hamels game.  Perhaps most importantly, he has shown maturity not common of a 19 year old.  With his sometimes checkered past, maturity was a major concern, but he has handled himself well.

So is Bryce Harper here to stay?  It certainly would be hard to send him back, even with a full roster.  While the Nationals have one of the most formidable pitching lineups in the league, they have struggled at the plate.  The team ranks 24^th in the league in batting average and 26^th in runs scored.  Harper is one of the team’s best hitters.  While the team traditionally does not like rushing players into the majors, they would have a hard time justifying sending him back to Syracuse.  Perhaps Rizzo believes he would benefit from more time in the minors, but he’s shown he’s ready for major league pitchers.  No doubt he will have his struggles when pitchers learn how to pitch to him and then we’ll see what kind of player he is.  For now, I’m just thankful the Nationals have found someone who can hit to make sure all of that great pitching doesn’t go to waste.

The Nationals Look to Make a Post Season Push

The flowers are blooming, the air is turning warmer, and the Redskins are making blockbuster trades. Yes, truly spring is in the air and with it comes a new baseball season. But, unlike in most seasons, Nationals fans can look at this season with a true sense of optimism thanks to the team GM Mike Rizzo has assembled.

The biggest improvement for this team is their rotation. For the past four seasons, John Lannan has been a regular starter and this year he is not even in the bullpen. What does that tell you about the strength of this lineup? Instead, Lannan was optioned to AAA thanks to the Nats' pitching upgrades. After a successful return at the end of last season, it was no surprise when manager Davey Johnson named Stephen Strasburg the team's ace. Scouts report that he has tweaked his technique in order to become a more efficient pitcher this year. We may not see him throw the heat as much, but if he can retire more batters with fewer pitches it will ease some of the fears people may have about his durability after Tommy John surgery. The team will also have Edwin Jackson and Gio Gonzalez, both of whom were traded for in the offseason. Add them to the mix with a healthy Strasburg and Jordan Zimmerman and the team boasts a surprisingly strong top 4. Chien-Ming Wang is expected back soon from yet another injury, so the Nationals' rotation will make them incredibly formidable. The pitching, however, doesn't stop there.

With the season only three games old, the Nationals have already called upon their bullpen for support and they have delivered. Tyler Clippard looks to build upon his all-star season and earned the win on opening day. The Nationals also acquired Brad Lidge in the offseason as their closer and he impressed early throwing his first save for the team in the opener. Ross Detweiler is right now the team's fifth starter, but he'll return to the bullpen once Wang is healthy. Pitching will not be a problem for this team.

Pitching, however, was not the real problem for them last year either. The Nationals hit only .242 last year and already they seem incapable of hitting anything in the first 7 innings. They have had to rely on late comebacks in order to keep things close. They really did not upgrade their offense in the offseason at all. Prospect Bryce Harper carries a large bat with him, and while most scouts believe he will be called up at some point this season, we're still probably a few months away from that happening. Still, the Nationals played without the help of Adam LaRoche for much of last season and so far we have seen the kind of impact he can have on this team. In the team's second game, LaRoche went 4 for 5 with 2 RBIs and a home run and he followed that up with another home run the next day. If he can remain healthy and keep playing at this level, he can give the Nationals some desperately needed hits. Ryan Zimmerman looks to rebound from an injury riddled year as well. And don't forget about John Lannan. No, he's not likely to get a call up for his batting skills, but Rizzo's reluctance to trade him after he was optioned may end up helping the team out down the line. Lannan comes with a high price tag that is keeping him here for the moment, but as the season progresses and injuries mount or teams find out their pitching isn't as strong as they perhaps thought, GMs will come calling. Don't be surprised if the Nationals pick up a bat in exchange for Lannan.

Last year the Nationals went 80-81 even with key injuries to Adam LaRoche, Stephen Strasburg, and Ryan Zimmerman. The team managed to avoid a collapse after the drama of Jim Riggleman's hasty exit and now look poised to finish with their first winning record in DC. And with the added wild card spot, it's not outlandish to think the Nationals could challenge for the playoffs this season. There's finally reason for some optimism for Nationals' fans this spring.