NHL Locks Out Players for Second Time in Eight Years

At midnight Sunday morning, the former NHL CBA expired and at 12:01 the players were officially locked out.  The NHL and the NHLPA were unable to reach an agreement on a new CBA and are now locked in an all too familiar labor dispute.  The last lockout happened in 2004 and resulted in the loss of the entire 2004-05 season.  Are we headed for another year without hockey?

While there are several issues that separate the two sides, the main dispute is over money (what else?).  Under the last agreement the player’s received 57% of generated revenue.  After watching the NFL and NBA lower the player revenue in their disputes last year, the NHL owners now look to lower this number considerably.  Most of the league’s offers made to the NHLPA would reduce the player’s share to about 47%.  While it may not be unreasonable for the owners to expect the players to receive a percentage comparable to other leagues, the players see a dangerous precedent being set by Commissioner Gary Bettman.

This is now the second lockout in eight years and the third in 18, all under Bettman.  Eight years ago, the NHL demanded a salary cap be a part of the new CBA.  The players refused, but both the league and the owners felt so strongly a salary cap was needed, they were willing to lock the players out for a full season.  The players eventually caved and gave up major concessions including a salary cap.  Just eight years later, the players find themselves locked out again.  This time, however, they have the memory of the concessions made on the last CBA.  Why did they give up so much if only to be locked out again during the very next negotiation?  Katie Strang of ESPN reports that the resolve of the NHLPA and the players is much stronger than it was eight years ago, and it’s no surprise; should the players cave again it would tell Bettman that locking the players out will always give him the upper hand.

There’s also a feeling among the players that they are being forced to fix the problems the owners created.  While the league complains about players getting paid too much, teams continue to offer massive contracts.  The biggest free agent splash in the offseason came when Zach Parise and Ryan Suter signed contracts for 13 years with the Minnesota Wild worth $96 million each.  These contracts would have once been shocking, now they seem common place.  If the teams think the players are paid too much or signed for too long, then they should not be offering those kinds of deals.

Hopefully Bettman is aware of the player’s sentiments and does not underestimate their resolve or this could be a lengthy lockout.  In situations such as this, there seems to be “unofficial” deadlines that bring both sides back to the negotiating table at various times during the dispute.  The first such deadline will be towards the end of September when the start of the regular season is put in jeopardy.  Some sort of dialog will begin, be it formal or informal.  If both sides recognize the other is serious, a real negotiation can take place.  If not, then the dispute will stretch into the regular season.

Usually, the first games missed also bring the two sides together when players start to miss their pay checks and owners start to refund ticket sales.  This year, however, the players will receive escrow payments in October equal to 8% of their 2011-2012 salaries.  Players will not be feeling the same pinch they usually feel in the early season and once the calendar hits November, the players can really make the owners sweat.  Why?  Because at that point the lockout will be putting the Winter Classic in jeopardy.  This season’s Classic could perhaps be the biggest and most successful as it features two of the most storied franchises in Detroit and Toronto playing at the Big House in Michigan.  The Winter Classic is one of the largest, most important events of the NHL season; something the league will not want to lose.

If a deal does not get done before the regular season, I do not think either side will get serious until late November/early December.  The players know the owners will be more likely to make a deal in November and with escrow payments and a stronger resolve, the players will not give in.  The question is what happens should the unthinkable happen and the Winter Classic is cancelled.  This is the first labor dispute where the Winter Classic will be an issue.  Just as the players do not want to always cave when locked out, the owners may not want to set a precedent of caving when the Winter Classic is threatened.  If it reaches that point, kiss the season goodbye.  The owners will drag it out to force concessions from the players and it will mean the loss of yet another NHL season.

While both sides try to calculate the resolve of the other, they both may have seriously miscalculated the resolve of the fans.  Let’s face it, hockey is not a popular sport in America.  It is not nearly as popular as the NFL, MLB, or NBA and yet it seemingly faces the most labor disputes.  In 2004, there was a sense among the fans that the lockout would ultimately help the sport and would mean a stronger league and lower ticket prices.  Instead, ticket prices have risen on average 39% since 2005 and the league is locked in its third labor dispute in 18 years.  At some point, you are asking too much.  Don’t expect them to understand why you could not get a satisfactory deal eight years ago and don’t expect them to feel sympathy for the millionaires who get paid to play hockey.

The NHL cannot continue to abuse a beleaguered fan base because at some point, they won’t come back.  Should this lockout last a full season, it will do irreparable damage to the league.  The NHL will not emerge in a stronger financial position, but will lose every casual fan.  Only the most die-hard fans will remain and the NHL will have cemented its position as a secondary sports league.