NHL Cancels More Games, Season Suddenly in Jeopardy

As the NHL locked its doors for the second time in eight years, the feeling among most experts was not whether we would have hockey, but when.  This might be the fourth work stoppage in 20 years, but with the lost 2004-05 season still fresh in everyone’s minds, both sides knew they had to come to a quick agreement for the good of the game.  Right?

 

Apparently not.  The NHL announced today that it has cancelled all regular season games through November 30^th.  There is also some speculation that the Winter Classic could be cancelled as early as Monday.  For the first time during the lockout, the season seems to be in real jeopardy.

 

From the beginning, this lockout seemed to be a gross miscalculation by the NHL.  Granted, players rarely “win” in these scenarios, but the NHLPA had more leverage than commissioner Gary Bettman initially acknowledged.

 

The players received escrow payments in October worth 8% of last season’s salary.  Many lockouts end quickly as the sting of the first missed paycheck begins to sink in for the players.  That was not going to happen this year.  Also, unlike in 2004, the NHL now has the Winter Classic to protect.  If the players could hold out until November, then they could use the Winter Classic as a major bargaining chip against the league.

 

Last week, the NHL offered a new proposal to the NHLPA which they posted in full on their website.  It offered the players a 50/50 revenue split and a chance for a full 82 game season.  The NHLPA responded with three counter proposals that the league immediately rejected.

 

While the NHL could have considered the proposals more thoroughly, the players used some pretty creative math that really did not come close to what the owners were asking.  Now the NHLPA has miscalculated.  They may have approached last week’s talks with an eye still on the Winter Classic, but the offer was about as good as it was going to get.  That’s not to say the players could not have negotiated further, but to offer three proposals that were way off the mark cost them an 82-game season.

 

If the league does cancel the Winter Classic as it is threatening, it is not as if the players could come back and accept the previous offer.  It is off the table.  Once the Winter Classic is cancelled, the players lose all of their leverage.  The owners will have no incentive to save the season and the players will end up with a much worse deal than the one the owners offered last week.

 

Of course, the Winter Classic has not yet been cancelled and all the speculation around its cancellation is just that, speculation.  The NHL could be spreading the rumor in an attempt to bring the players back to the table, but the players cannot afford to call their bluff.  There is still time for a deal to get done to save the season.  Now that negotiations have broken down and both sides engage in finger pointing, the outlook suddenly looks very bleak.

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